World Energy Outlook 2019

The gold standard of energy analysis

World Energy Outlook 2019 explains the impact of today’s decisions on tomorrow’s energy systems, and describes a pathway that enables the world to meet climate, energy access and air quality goals while maintaining a strong focus on the reliability and affordability of energy for a growing global population.

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In this section


Oil


Introduction

Oil demand in 2018 rose steadily, but confounded other expectations. The leading source of consumption growth was not China or India, but rather the United States. Sales of electric vehicles set new records, although they are yet to make a very visible dent in oil consumption. The main increases in oil product demand came from gasoline and diesel but there were also sizeable contributions from ethane, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and naphtha as the use of oil as ap petrochemical feedstock continues to grow in importance.

In terms of supply, US tight oil defied talk of infrastructure constraints, and growth to date matches the fastest pace ever seen in the history of oil markets. Economic, political and security issues affected supply from Venezuela, Libya and Iran, while attacks on oil tankers and processing infrastructure in the Middle East have heightened awareness about risks to oil supply from the region, including via some key choke points in international trade. Prices remained relatively subdued despite these events.

So where do we go from here? As ever, the World Energy Outlook sets out a number of pathways. In the Stated Policies Scenario, demand growth is robust to 2025, but growth slows to a crawl thereafter and demand reaches 106 mb/d in 2040. In the Sustainable Development Scenario, the unprecedented scale, scope and speed of changes in the energy landscape paints a very different picture: demand soon peaks and drops to under 67 mb/d in 2040.

Outlook by scenario

	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East 	Eurasia	Asia Pacific	International bunkers 
	22.8	5.8	13.2	3.9	7.5	3.9	31.6	8.2
	21.5	6.2	11.1	5.5	8.8	4.3	38	10
	19.1	6.5	8.7	7	10.2	4.2	39.2	11.4
	22.8	5.8	13.2	3.9	7.5	3.9	31.6	8.2
	17.7	4.9	9.2	4.9	6.7	3.8	32.4	7.6
	11.7	3.8	5	5.2	6.3	3.1	25.4	6.4
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	23	6.6	3.7	8.2	31.2	14.2	7.8
	29.6	8.1	3.3	8	33.6	13.6	6.5
	28.6	9.7	2.6	8.2	35.6	12.4	6.4
	23	6.6	3.7	8.2	31.2	14.2	7.8
	25.7	5.7	2.8	6	28.7	10.7	5.4
	20.6	4.5	1.9	4.9	22.2	7.1	3.9
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In the Stated Policies Scenario, global oil rises by around 1 mb/d on average every year until 2025. Oil use in passenger cars peaks in the late 2020s and during the 2030s demand increases by only 0.1 mb/d on average each year. There is no definitive peak in oil use overall, as there are continued increases in petrochemicals, trucks and the shipping and aviation sectors. The largest increases in production between 2018 and 2040 come from the United States, Iraq and Brazil while the share in oil production from countries in OPEC plus Russia falls to 47% for much of the 2020s, a level not seen since the 1980s.

In the Sustainable Development Scenario, determined policy interventions lead to a peak in global oil demand within the next few years. Demand falls by more than 50% in advanced economies between 2018 and 2040 and by 10% in developing economies.

Reductions in oil use in road transport are particularly significant. By 2040, 50% of cars are electric as are most urban buses; almost 2 million barrels of oil equivalent (mboe) per day biofuels are consumed in the aviation and shipping sectors and almost 20% of the fuel used by trucks worldwide is low-carbon. The only sector to see demand growth is petrochemicals: while the rate of plastics recycling more than doubles (from around 15% today to 35% in 2040), demand for oil as a feedstock nonetheless increases by almost 3 mb/d to 2040.

Highlights from the WEO analysis

	Demand	Supply	Net trade
North America	-3.38	5.63	9.01
Europe	-4.25	-1.35	2.90
Central & South America	0.89	3.23	2.34
Middle East	3.08	4.09	1.01
Eurasia	0.42	-2.07	-2.49
Africa	3.31	-0.03	-3.34
Asia Pacific	9.45	-0.76	-10.22
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	Conventional cars in advanced economies	Conventional cars in developing economies	Electric cars in advanced economies	Electric cars in developing economies
2016	45.92917286	42.15945423	0.406766683	0.336823087
2017	46.58980533	41.92064336	0.568030282	0.581471986
2018	46.04461144	40.61311659	0.872173107	1.090433
2025	38.9037779	61.54725782	3.696192184	5.888725827
2030	37.51235501	62.54957667	6.567206629	10.83682998
2040	33.92226945	62.04427479	14.13663265	19.08535955
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	Permian-Delaware	Permian-Midland	Bakken	Eagle Ford	Niobrara	Other 
2010	0.02	0.09	0.25	0.02	0.03	0.19
2015	0.55	0.49	1.15	1.02	0.24	0.72
2018	1.47	1.34	1.23	0.83	0.39	0.66
			
2025	2.90	1.83	1.70	0.79	0.83	1.72
2030	4.00	2.08	1.72	0.72	0.63	1.64
2035	5.41	2.06	1.23	0.48	0.42	1.45
2040	5.33	1.58	1.01	0.48	0.34	1.36
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	LNG	Oil products	Crude oil
2018	1.935933943	4.070666667	16.03781333
2030	2.232134864	4.923879958	15.21951333
2040	2.674079214	4.604354217	15.65731333
2018	1.231189293	3.071254812	16
2030	1.343188337	4.804790846	20.0608056
2040	2.437736153	5.003011662	20.77744832
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Some traditional producers and exporters are seeing increasing pressure on their development model as a result of changing oil market dynamics. They face the prospect of a world where markets for their ample oil resources are not guaranteed, and where reduced income from hydrocarbons hampers their ability to maintain upstream spending and constrains the investments necessary to diversify their economies. A shift towards the lower demand and lower price environment of the Sustainable Development Scenario would further underscore the need for economic reform and diversification.



Natural gas


Introduction

Natural gas had a remarkable year in 2018, with a 4.6% increase in consumption accounting for nearly half of the increase in global energy demand. We asked in 2011 whether the world might be poised to enter a “Golden Age of Gas”, and now it appears that global gas consumption is very close to those 2011 projections. Since 2010, 80% of growth has been concentrated in three key regions: the United States, where the shale gas revolution is in full swing; China, where economic expansion and air quality concerns have underpinned rapid growth; and the Middle East, where gas is a gateway to economic diversification from oil. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is the key to more broad-based growth in future; 2019 is already a record year for investment in new LNG supply, even as prices in key importing regions have fallen to record lows.

Natural gas continues to outperform coal or oil in both the Stated Policies Scenario (where gas demand grows by over a third) and the Sustainable Development Scenario (where gas demand grows modestly to 2030 before reverting to present levels by 2040). However, the gas industry faces some commercial and environmental challenges as well as some major variations in the storyline in different parts of the world.

Outlook by scenario

	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East 	Eurasia	Asia Pacific	International bunkers 
	1067	169	617	150	539	598	815	0
	1183	198	593	221	646	639	1218	21
	1221	257	557	317	807	674	1522	50
	1067	169	617	150	539	598	815	0
	1052	168	519	176	550	551	1234	14
	791	169	380	200	507	471	1322	15
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	1083	177	277	240	645	918	598
	1336	209	206	372	787	1054	757
	1376	285	188	508	1016	1143	889
	1083	177	277	240	645	918	598
	1209	187	189	333	681	921	745
	909	189	151	383	651	786	786
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In the Stated Policies Scenario, overall global gas demand in 2040 is broadly similar to what we projected in WEO 2018, as a slight upward revision to the use of gas in industry compensates for a downward adjustment to gas consumption for power generation. Demand in the United States has edged higher, but this is offset by a sharper decline in the European Union, as well as by slightly slower projected growth in China. Production growth is dominated by shale gas, which grows at a rate of almost 4% each year, four-times faster than conventional gas.

In the Sustainable Development Scenario, natural gas consumption increases over the next decade at an annual average rate of 0.9% before reaching a high point by the end of the 2020s. After this, accelerated deployment of renewables and energy efficiency measures, together with a pickup in production of biomethane and later of hydrogen, begins to reduce consumption.

By 2040, natural gas demand in advanced economies is lower than current levels in all sectors apart from transport, where demand remains broadly similar to the level reached in the Stated Policies Scenario. In developing economies, gas growth in the power sector rises to 2030 but falls back due to a growing share of renewables, while growth in industrial demand is half the level of the Stated Policies Scenario. Although absolute consumption falls, natural gas gains market share at the expense of both coal and oil in sectors that are difficult to decarbonise, such as heavy-duty transport and the use of heat in industry. Even though natural gas-fired power generation declines, capacity grows compared with today as a consequence of the role of gas in providing power system flexibility.

Highlights from the WEO analysis

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However, this could change if a higher price was put on CO2 emissions. Globally, a price of $60/tonne of CO₂ could trigger nearly 700 Mt CO₂ in avoided emissions from coal-to-gas switching in power generation using existing infrastructure and our commodity price assumptions in the Stated Policies Scenario in 2025. Most of the lower-cost potential lies in Europe and the United States, which has significant spare gas capacity and ageing coal-fired power plants. In emerging Asian markets, higher costs of imported gas and a younger coal fleet mean carbon prices would need to exceed $60/tonne CO₂ in order to create an economic case for switching.


	Marketed	Used on-site or reinjected	Flared or vented
North America	213	35	26
Middle East	114	22	64
Eurasia	50	23	34
Africa	25	21	44
Rest of world	109	35	35
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Coal


Introduction

Global coal use rose for the second straight year in 2018, although it remained below the peak level of 2014, and this rise mainly came from China, India, Indonesia and some other countries in South and Southeast Asia. In Asia, demand for electricity has continued to grow and coal remains the largest source of generated electricity.

Coal is meanwhile being steadily squeezed out of the energy mix in many advanced economies by a mix of environmental policies and competitive pressures from increasingly cost-competitive renewables and, in some markets, from natural gas.

There is a stark variation in the coal outlook between the Stated Policies Scenario, in which global coal demand is essentially flat, and the Sustainable Development Scenario, in which it falls rapidly. What happens in Asia will be pivotal, given the region’s large coal supply industry and the young average age of the coal-fired fleet. Large-scale deployment of CCUS technologies could yet allow to make a distinction between coal use and the emissions from its combustion, and this is an important feature of the Sustainable Development Scenario, alongside a major reduction in overall coal demand.

Outlook by scenario

	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East 	Eurasia	Asia Pacific
	492	46	447	159	6	229	4079
	328	47	263	160	10	212	4476
	285	49	203	161	14	199	4487
	492	46	447	159	6	229	4079
	81	30	129	113	9	136	2976
	50	23	84	92	6	74	1771
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	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East 	Eurasia	Asia Pacific
	576	82	230	225	1	414	4039
	385	75	131	199	2	409	4297
	329	62	80	221	2	424	4282
	576	82	230	225	1	414	4039
	139	59	63	174	2	246	2788
	72	11	24	122	2	127	1742
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Flat global coal demand in an expanding energy system means that the share of coal in the global energy mix in the Stated Policies Scenario declines from 27% in 2018 to 21% in 2040, falling behind natural gas in the process. Overall coal use in power generation decreases slightly, while its industrial use grows modestly.

There are strong regional disparities in the outlook for coal. In many advanced economies coal demand for power is in deep structural decline, hastened by specific phase-out commitments, the continued rise of renewables, competition from natural gas in the United States and higher CO2 prices in the European Union. Coal demand drops too in China – by far the world’s largest coal consumer – due in large part to a strong policy push to improve air quality. However, in other parts of developing Asia countries look to increase their use of coal to satisfy fast-rising demand for electricity and for industrial development.

The outlook for coal is very different in the Sustainable Development Scenario. With a much more stringent focus on reducing emissions, global coal use decreases steeply at an annual rate of 4.2%. By 2040, world coal use is 60% lower than in the Stated Policies Scenario and coal’s share in the primary energy mix falls towards 10%.

A crucial variable for the future of coal is the extent to which carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) technologies are deployed in power generation and industry. CCUS can provide a cost-competitive decarbonisation option for key industrial processes. The current pipeline of projects however is far short of what is required under the Sustainable Development Scenario to abate emissions from key industrial sectors of the economy.

Highlights from the WEO analysis

	Coal	Oil	Natural gas	Electricity	Heat	Bioenergy	Other renewables
United States	24.85903	71.51966795	142.360329	70.007667	4.5467612	30.82598889	0
China	714.614151	117.655511	75.61588	320.6149856	69.001988	0.009981396	0.50932
India	115.13122	45.331575	33.00223	42.3460823	0	32.3434	0.0602441
European Union	46.0784597	92.98098012	97.17937246	89.4460505	16.26673679	27.62591006	0.022647191
Russia	44.23731892	23.775165	50.800137	28.955963	41.45559	1.47281897	0
Middle East	3.70271	76.492802	116.01038	15.5552785	0	0	0.00127641
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	Coal	Oil	Natural gas	Electricity	Other
1990	655.8302608	557.9683891	453.332011	389.0955001	264.8413308
2018	1175.881902	718.3081668	736.3084941	803.6455968	357.8078951
STEPS 2040	1332.410848	928.8185081	1201.564483	1164.260729	469.196095
SDS 2040	844.1204529	740.7740772	904.5663595	1047.979976	400.2728777
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	China	India	Australia	United States	Rest of world
2010	86.22	6.43	7.76	4.46	30.18
2011	102.78	7.02	11.59	3.98	31.15
2012	107.27	7.24	16.23	3.46	29.01
2013	100.69	7.80	12.73	3.27	27.29
2014	88.43	7.85	8.38	2.96	26.21
2015	72.88	7.28	5.76	2.65	23.15
2016	52.412729	7.188489	4.343523	2.637424162	20.45363484
2017	44.494912	7.636784	4.48393	2.95866601	18.47298799
2018	46.780824	8.022738	4.994849	2.8019557	17.3516633
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The decline in coal supply investment since the high point in 2012 - notwithstanding the slight uptick in 2018- is set to continue in our projections in both scenarios. From $80 billion in 2018, average annual investment declines to around $60 billion in the Stated Policies Scenario by the 2020s (averaged for the decade as a whole) and to around a third of this in the Sustainable Development Scenario. Investment in coal supply increasingly bifurcates into two worlds – one in which financing constraints start to bite and the other in which financing does not yet appear to be such a hard constraint. Most of the projected coal supply investment is concentrated in the latter.


	Coal mine methane	Extraction, processing and transport	Emissions intensity (right axis)
China	600.9309878	320.693914	0.353045026
Russia	128.3486368	40.80985579	0.537930112
United States	77.42273149	64.06956523	0.268378049
Australia	31.44301624	47.89730867	0.193391952
Indonesia	31.20504837	21.31564516	0.141163716
India	33.95285719	45.31743696	0.189817955
South Africa	42.56745413	12.1911827	0.272413893
Kazakhstan	46.67274677	4.357000321	0.714658425
Poland	35.90470767	9.853849868	0.423421107
Colombia	6.28737464	8.566773689	0.179937739
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Electricity


Introduction

Electricity is at the heart of modern economies and it is providing a rising share of energy services. Demand for electricity is set to increase further as a result of rising household incomes, with the electrification of transport and heat, and growing demand for digital connected devices and air conditioning.

Rising electricity demand was one of the key reasons why global CO2 emissions from the power sector reached a record high in 2018, yet the commercial availability of a diverse suite of low emissions generation technologies also puts electricity at the vanguard of efforts to combat climate change and pollution. Decarbonised electricity, in addition, could provide a platform for reducing CO2 emissions in other sectors through electricity-based fuels such as hydrogen or synthetic liquid fuels. Renewable energy also has a major role to play in providing access to electricity for all.

Outlook by scenario

	Coal	Gas	Oil	Nuclear	Hydro	Wind	Solar	Other renewables
2018	10.12351	6.123777	0.8086831	2.717892	4.202572	1.265233	0.6037554	0.7274539
2020	10.28456	6.261521	0.8206661	2.774426	4.381412	1.589728	0.8837925	0.8250628
2030	10.40797	7.528785	0.6221227	3.072606	5.25529	3.317143	2.629128	1.277302
2040	10.43054	8.899012	0.4897246	3.475294	6.097929	5.226063	4.900566	1.824253
2018	10.12351	6.123777	0.8086831	2.717892	4.202572	1.265233	0.6037554	0.7274539
2020	9.783243	6.377577	0.7708842	2.79566	4.411082	1.640003	0.9424349	0.8410058
2030	5.503885	7.042757	0.3546697	3.434699	5.684623	4.452589	3.665873	1.631208
2040	2.428145	5.584163	0.1972162	4.408837	6.933566	8.294601	8.013044	2.823449
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	Industry	Residential	Services	Transport	Other final uses	Power services*
2018	9.337916	6.388567	5.366136	0.3770157	1.566443	3.572822
2020	9.877571	6.644151	5.582946	0.4537737	1.659326	3.633449
2030	11.84281	8.38743	6.810195	1.025377	1.872737	4.201838
2040	13.52502	10.87464	8.017535	2.011977	2.023514	4.920743
2018	9.337916	6.388567	5.366136	0.3770157	1.566443	3.572822
2020	9.73338	6.63186	5.531076	0.4587806	1.638517	3.598324
2030	10.75108	7.911103	6.353038	1.373519	1.701465	3.710148
2040	12.16923	9.59348	7.012189	4.064597	1.72218	4.15139
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In the Stated Policies Scenario, global electricity demand grows at 2.1% per year to 2040, twice the rate of primary energy demand. This raises electricity’s share in total final energy consumption from 19% in 2018 to 24% in 2040. Electricity demand growth is set to be particularly strong in developing economies. Government policies, market conditions and available technologies collectively set a course for electricity supply to shift towards low-carbon sources, with their share increasing from 36% today to 52% in 2040 in the Stated Policies Scenario.

In the Sustainable Development Scenario electricity plays an even larger role, reaching 31% of final energy consumption. In the Sustainable Development Scenario, electricity is one of the few energy sources that sees growing consumption in 2040 – mainly due to electric vehicles – alongside the direct use of renewables, and hydrogen. The share of electricity in final consumption, less than half that of oil today, overtakes oil by 2040. Accelerated efforts on renewables, nuclear power and carbon capture technologies rapidly decarbonise electricity supply, compensating for the sharp decline of coal-fired power generation and reducing power sector CO2 emissions by three-quarters by 2040.

Highlights from the WEO analysis

	United States	European Union	Japan	Other advanced economies	China	India	Other developing economies
2000	3.589134733	2.604147523	0.96197454	1.491936598	1.174084628	0.376151535	2.954220906
2001	3.553753384	2.669396079	0.946550994	1.529532744	1.277414523	0.381826198	3.004088142
2002	3.630598035	2.697725455	0.96241085	1.577223263	1.417138012	0.406532105	3.112564257
2003	3.660295756	2.760093755	0.955467905	1.612003576	1.642016093	0.433552919	3.256135974
2004	3.71363	2.820008301	0.984385734	1.676107338	1.897030698	0.463246163	3.409246483
2005	3.808218407	2.858865105	1.004089043	1.71431519	2.1641165	0.489553953	3.566849552
2006	3.813273453	2.906337102	1.009698344	1.75365076	2.482424547	0.543414116	3.753682619
2007	3.91602236	2.923957173	1.035194583	1.822625689	2.851526547	0.58882207	3.911766892
2008	3.898263209	2.93581123	1.007843147	1.861379556	3.014285814	0.620826919	4.021049319
2009	3.711124663	2.782067965	0.993530813	1.83239021	3.236595116	0.669145035	4.030977002
2010	3.879033767	2.909586672	1.071353151	1.920314702	3.667024663	0.72910793	4.352576008
2011	3.871437895	2.870447163	1.016164686	1.986467646	4.093213035	0.802292581	4.495507257
2012	3.817351965	2.87738957	1.004583033	2.015042804	4.368941674	0.84092186	4.673538248
2013	3.858203279	2.853422872	1.011320477	2.047436359	4.760198756	0.891028884	4.807687036
2014	3.880269047	2.791039465	0.993889047	2.067828315	4.981561791	0.975959465	4.919116793
2015	3.883816	2.829036263	0.980996407	2.085632367	5.146703453	1.039101628	5.059863617
2016	3.904235721	2.859556254	0.97530864	2.122463919	5.450597605	1.110899279	5.185872414
2017	3.857423244	2.878562937	0.986005535	2.13523965	5.835474814	1.167634326	5.313571981
2018	4.010786977	2.884002533	0.993735903	2.164614156	6.329530611	1.242815364	5.405322371
2019	4.032203259	2.894624669	0.991196688	2.185734875	6.672024784	1.320497991	5.545449954
2020	4.058660792	2.916668661	0.988349092	2.224328044	6.924584628	1.400059883	5.705113608
2021	4.068799044	2.931550499	0.985907415	2.265400059	7.17306943	1.483429171	5.845643549
2022	4.083400041	2.947078417	0.98350385	2.306418013	7.39682793	1.570046057	5.993228507
2023	4.102625697	2.960451392	0.980884294	2.345334649	7.618519826	1.665672871	6.150725053
2024	4.119850737	2.972737987	0.978632166	2.384392432	7.840330907	1.761586285	6.312423892
2025	4.137015144	2.984053238	0.977806408	2.421920364	8.061906125	1.857583264	6.48853176
2026	4.14875076	2.992684955	0.97794341	2.459444236	8.27191684	1.958068986	6.67125626
2027	4.169600817	3.004014033	0.978685012	2.499022469	8.48913732	2.068122906	6.875015087
2028	4.187823627	3.015492943	0.979364726	2.537359635	8.703844278	2.181091943	7.084645238
2029	4.207409305	3.029648677	0.979900928	2.575485623	8.91781285	2.297348985	7.302282894
2030	4.226386419	3.044703995	0.980371915	2.61419081	9.126703309	2.416541164	7.529666217
2031	4.247127488	3.063040132	0.9813887	2.652364143	9.327075971	2.538889927	7.753706972
2032	4.270640907	3.081645318	0.982545201	2.690791124	9.529105212	2.663256688	7.984223811
2033	4.296340407	3.098299141	0.983317272	2.729108155	9.719796128	2.789688788	8.222910046
2034	4.32246964	3.119030991	0.983926862	2.767832903	9.90053967	2.91773562	8.469456825
2035	4.348735407	3.139015332	0.984571421	2.806329331	10.0790966	3.047371398	8.724360181
2036	4.377182535	3.158071852	0.98532633	2.846460423	10.25124652	3.17907897	8.977345029
2037	4.410999659	3.180425359	0.986440717	2.888299744	10.42542808	3.313230337	9.239099324
2038	4.447296784	3.201595148	0.988328701	2.930806536	10.5978441	3.449689267	9.510450621
2039	4.481595747	3.22363693	0.988716169	2.971095217	10.75760661	3.586557244	9.786346833
2040	4.516553942	3.242557584	0.989326259	3.013570956	10.91191515	3.718003058	10.06076838
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	STEPS: advanced economies	STEPS: developing economies	SDS: advanced economies	SDS: developing economies
Industrial motors	426.674129	4267.635073	4.18476479	2562.033304
Space cooling	191.073031	2031.313768	-36.97485218	1227.509924
Large appliances	102.1236312	1394.892802	-11.34246325	1050.418436
Connected & small appliances	289.4000339	1088.759245	161.9335241	851.3092665
Electric vehicles	515.8321087	774.6242904	1450.858378	1886.066727
Space & water heating	193.8009511	833.9074854	69.02690749	506.5513389
Energy access	1.0931929	267.784705	0.9079222	472.167476
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	Coal	Natural gas	Oil	CCUS	Nuclear	Hydro	Solar PV	Wind	Other renewables
2018	10122.67	6122.33	808.61	0.00	2717.98	4202.57	592.14	1265.232838	739
Stated Plolicies 2040	10361.81	8898.18	489.72	69.57	3475.29	6097.93	4704.51	5226.06276	2020
Sustainable Development 2040	1434.52	4669.51	197.22	1908.29	4408.84	6933.57	7208.10	8294.601457	3628
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In the Sustainable Development Scenario, renewables provide two-thirds of electricity supply worldwide by 2040: solar PV and wind together provide 40%, with a further 25% from dispatchable renewables, including hydro and bioenergy. Nuclear power expands and close to 320 GW of coal and gas-fired capacity is equipped with CCUS. Unabated coal-fired power is almost completely phased out by 2040, addressing the largest single source of CO2 emissions, while gas-fired power remains an important source of flexibility.


	Electricity demand	Flexibility needs
United States	12.61016773	94.12835436
European Union	12.43254981	42.1377954
China	72.39690941	145.4371028
India	199.1597277	483.8168645
United States	14.02817225	155.6777804
European Union	26.39142018	66.01409554
China	58.81453587	249.4194872
India	162.5365855	565.2064606
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	Coal	Gas	Oil	Nuclear	Wind	Solar PV	Other renewables	Hydro	Battery storage
2000	1143.5177	798.7313182	447.693367	384.383	16.91706	0.80197401	49.15645105	787.6302246	
2001	1161.67197	860.5726385	447.159126	387.261	23.9462	1.085438816	52.45803612	795.8486211	
2002	1178.8859	956.3419468	444.650501	391.579	30.709265	1.443747706	56.30402385	809.7285481	
2003	1201.63019	1035.158766	444.94814	392.281	38.64335	1.968545027	59.92221605	828.6397711	
2004	1233.20949	1088.082685	439.741544	395.771	47.66188	3.063513421	62.13505065	850.3956961	
2005	1283.36907	1130.574169	437.327332	398.696	58.382354	4.517860102	67.12036711	871.6429921	
2006	1371.51034	1177.236731	433.825407	397.876	73.125712	6.033094816	74.3551537	896.5375341	
2007	1438.47693	1218.267683	430.938321	399.862	91.49627	8.42817699	79.2109502	927.1672661	
2008	1503.32384	1259.158735	430.706684	399.422	115.514508	14.63730771	82.69206029	959.5462851	0.688484
2009	1566.55635	1314.681276	432.233602	397.874	150.078298	22.7249442	87.64280587	993.289413	0.710866
2010	1628.60824	1374.494389	436.095338	401.407	180.77971	39.62400079	99.54497589	1025.883764	0.744171
2011	1712.63652	1422.363411	440.300849	393.946	219.833365	70.1569536	106.0538622	1058.483672	0.82905189
2012	1774.0645	1473.911522	438.961924	395.181	266.634563	99.82922433	115.738862	1092.348514	0.90097186
2013	1820.88438	1511.802354	435.474857	393.882	299.437508	136.3571208	124.238169	1136.446459	1.10030473
2014	1888.46494	1570.281281	440.121206	398.359	348.931031	176.6727639	131.8087405	1174.37252	1.5076802
2015	1961.35053	1612.119481	439.198919	405.295	416.453767	225.7030249	139.1378969	1208.71166	2.21242191
2016	2023.29182	1639.890972	447.015781	414.045	467.150378	301.113758	148.5444296	1244.560588	3.4455203
2017	2070.6868	1692.56929	449.503635	413.318	514.930329	398.6121222	155.9456879	1269.393402	5.174240053
2018	2078.6616	1744.784976	450.088488	419.295	565.604579	495.4644252	165.9846027	1289.555039	8.175883226
2019	2111.810389	1829.882062	432.2320955	417.884	623.8819372	606.6367779	175.5196322	1308.193126	15.70489473
2020	2125.790605	1875.598324	413.5270801	419.119	688.2511474	715.4824246	184.1297103	1338.065639	23.66204933
2021	2129.713747	1918.4766	397.6340518	420.439	746.9086459	825.069863	192.3564874	1359.149663	31.26188413
2022	2124.460972	1965.456937	380.1914594	417.276	804.0987238	942.8699589	200.5226135	1375.611435	39.52630753
2023	2114.408814	2005.637425	367.6741413	412.235	860.6161612	1069.673195	208.4330213	1398.263807	47.82624663
2024	2112.065295	2036.398122	354.1673294	415.737	921.4684905	1201.875096	216.0239715	1419.463273	55.49539803
2025	2106.150412	2069.661728	344.0043035	416.636	979.7880841	1308.635673	225.8938447	1447.781214	63.41724663
2026	2099.308834	2101.453416	331.6517697	419.985	1039.78821	1415.049738	235.9112033	1476.329828	72.16806633
2027	2097.066699	2133.619337	324.76143	425.427	1100.146096	1522.14741	246.1432596	1504.351348	81.91052563
2028	2099.699006	2177.622388	317.1787531	429.492	1161.53597	1631.418132	256.7035688	1532.135301	93.50919693
2029	2106.109823	2216.73533	306.8132457	431.315	1224.183025	1745.587035	267.6824756	1559.293578	107.392913
2030	2110.736483	2253.709979	298.0207642	436.386	1288.206862	1865.588416	279.247007	1585.583831	126.4081748
2031	2115.574106	2286.81918	293.0517088	442.4496	1351.564841	1984.675568	291.3308755	1610.901018	144.8827254
2032	2120.143409	2328.128024	288.2140674	443.3966	1414.578901	2104.198363	303.5632384	1635.368257	164.6444502
2033	2123.282724	2364.639445	284.5491458	451.2176	1476.038702	2225.38035	316.1440823	1659.403815	183.4224365
2034	2127.898714	2408.330394	277.0817548	455.5256	1536.222258	2349.337352	329.0321487	1683.102272	204.2806046
2035	2131.846399	2447.893222	271.125805	459.1106	1594.483453	2476.123451	342.2517627	1706.763372	225.0955996
2036	2136.639425	2484.542453	264.5921203	467.7216	1649.191113	2605.508917	355.7558294	1730.170479	244.8214485
2037	2142.449781	2525.107455	258.4066561	474.7446	1702.918551	2738.273106	369.7078732	1753.373901	266.7496861
2038	2150.451959	2571.849624	251.3824799	475.7966	1754.414244	2872.303779	383.7107183	1776.400079	288.8415251
2039	2162.97628	2606.669443	245.4966982	480.7466	1805.947939	3007.374689	397.976666	1799.358277	307.7971536
2040	2171.280983	2651.172228	239.1338545	482.4816	1856.270498	3142.022993	412.5079163	1822.312482	331.5171776
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	Coal	Natural gas	Oil	CCUS	Nuclear	Hydro	Wind	Solar PV	Other RE	Networks	Transmission	Distribution	Batteries
2010-18	76	53.07	22.16	0.33	34.16	59.00	89.17	122.71	29.28	277.41	75.08	202.32	1.40
Stated Policies	41	46.75334545	2.071900455	1.703576433	50.06923636	73.35528636	127.6877727	116.0717273	46.07425909	399.9832118	97.45970909	302.52	16.74
Sustainable Development	7	29.24852727	2.324959545	26.84984023	64.53405	100.8119136	207.7562273	177.9963182	99.86722273	474.7176836	103.0839591	371.63	26.64
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Renewables


Introduction

The past decade has seen strong growth in the deployment of renewable energy technologies, with the power sector leading the way thanks to sharp cost reductions for solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power. However the uptake of renewables has been slower in end-use sectors such as industry and buildings.

Electricity generation from renewables continued to grow in 2018 with output up by 450 terawatt-hours (TWh) (or 7%) compared to the previous year, accounting for more than a quarter of total power generation. Growth in output from solar PV, wind and hydro accounted for 90% of the increase. Around 180 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable power capacity was added in 2018, which is the same level as the previous year, although the IEA’s estimate for 2019 suggests a resumption of robust growth in annual renewable additions.

Outlook by scenario

	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East 	Eurasia	Asia Pacific
	1242	869	1438	163	23	260	2805
	2019	1269	2384	474	140	342	5869
	2583	1591	2967	882	408	440	9178
	1242	869	1438	163	23	260	2805
	2471	1316	2721	716	305	452	7453
	3984	1741	3817	1509	1010	807	13197
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	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East 	Eurasia	Asia Pacific
	406	226	619	48	19	73	1125
	699	323	986	154	68	97	2692
	892	410	1137	299	173	130	4192
	406	226	619	48	19	73	1125
	865	338	1132	262	138	139	3495
	1372	462	1468	574	411	237	6102
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Cost reductions in renewables and advances in digital technologies are opening huge opportunities for energy transitions. Wind and solar PV provide more than half of the additional electricity generation to 2040 in the Stated Policies Scenario and almost all the growth in the Sustainable Development Scenario.

In the Stated Policies Scenario, the amount of renewables (excluding traditional use of biomass) in final energy consumption increases from more than 990 Mtoe today to almost 2 260 Mtoe in 2040. The share of renewables in global heat increases by 60% and reaches nearly 940 Mtoe in 2040, thanks to substantial growth in the modern use of bioenergy (pellets in boilers and stoves, biogas and biomethane, biofuels), renewable electricity and also of solar thermal. Meanwhile the contribution of renewables to the transport sector triples to around 300 Mtoe, three-quarters of which comes from biofuels.

In the Sustainable Development Scenario, additional measures to incentivise investment in renewables-based electricity, bioenergy, solar heat, geothermal heat and electrification push the share of renewables to two-thirds of electricity generation output and 37% of final energy consumption. By 2040, expected output from wind (8 300 TWh) and solar PV (7 200 TWh) are expected to exceed hydropower (6 950 TWh), while the share of heat coming from renewables in 2040 increases to 30% of the total or to 1 200 Mtoe. In the transport sector, consumption of energy from renewable sources is projected to increase to 600 Mtoe, with biofuels accounting for around 60% and electricity from renewable sources consumed by electric vehicles and rail accounting for the remainder.

Highlights from the WEO analysis

	Wind 	Solar PV	Bioenergy	Hydro	Other renewables	Sustainable Development Scenario
China	26.04935095	43.78398224	2.192929746	8.066831423	0.648662578	84.91607438
European Union	38.81935478	29.27056434	4.099424211	5.109422503	2.307707297	81.8249732
Japan	9.98582335	53.06638061	4.573450841	5.370207948	1.598406407	85.68712025
Korea	24.93582974	44.67371734	2.147362883	1.093384812	0.986835406	81.91550392
C & S America	17.75133752	17.56492902	5.41192891	26.42621694	1.736516261	83.56626906
India	15.93799406	45.66508096	0.857299312	4.564630924	0.388767802	73.11445518
World	20.51697394	34.75022049	2.408967034	7.779454783	1.41629421	79.07036483
United States	20.64775066	36.53499287	2.09162226	3.170390539	1.318124198	77.64580385
Africa	11.15017881	28.90864567	1.851641196	10.84581437	3.825091925	75.70943378
Southeast Asia	5.14	20.10	3.43	15.70	2.38	80.44046498
Middle East	9.308845971	23.23856257	0.933894631	1.717904858	4.14	73.33985531
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Renewables-based power investment declined slightly in 2018 around $390 billion yet a dollar of renewables spending continued to buy more generation capacity than in the past. Whichever scenario the world follows, investment in renewables technologies would need to accelerate.

In the Stated Policies Scenario, investment in renewables reaches a cumulative total between now and 2040 of around $10 trillion. In the Sustainable Development Scenario, investment grows at a much faster rate, reflecting stronger policy support and the central role that these clean energy technologies play in reaching sustainable energy goals.

Global annual average investment in renewables by scenario (billion USD 2018)

    Stated Policies Sustainable Development Change 2018 vs
2031-2040
  2018 2019-30 2031-40 2019-30 2031-40 STEPS SDS
Renewables-based power generation 304 329 378 528 636 24% 109%
    Wind 89 111 122 180 223 37% 151%
    Solar PV 135 116 125 179 191 -7% 41%
End-use sectors 25 117 139 124 145 456% 480%
Total 329 456 517 652 781 57% 137%
Cumulative   5 477 5 166 7 829 7 802    
Note: Renewables for end-use include solar thermal, bioenergy and geothermal applications for heating


	European Union	China	United States	India	Korea	Japan	Rest of world
2018	18.65254	3.6575	0.03	0	0.03	0.0646	0.1008
2030	77.22486	42.35590027	17.356	4.02488	12.1410999	2.30269	9.95099907
2040	126.944362	107.292	37.6322967	16.31432414	24.9726751	4.09761	25.14838318
2030	92.10186	64.60030468	20.664	5.28239	14.77659976	6.18936	21.76958
2040	175.190362	172.62701	67.5475967	22.79024865	28.891276	18.2781	76.64232628
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Increasingly cost-competitive offshore wind projects are on course to attract a trillion dollars of investment to 2040. Europe’s success with the technology has sparked interest in China, the United States and elsewhere. In the Sustainable Development Scenario, offshore wind rivals its onshore counterpart as the leading source of electricity generation in the European Union, paving the way to full decarbonisation of Europe’s power sector. Even higher deployment is possible if offshore wind becomes the foundation for the production of low-carbon hydrogen.


	Power	Buildings and agriculture	Industry	Upgraded to biomethane
	18.03	2.27	0.33	2.51
	22.80	2.96	0.33	24.86
	26.19	3.44	0.33	41.18
	29.34	3.87	0.33	57.57
	32.10	4.24	0.33	74.04	
	4.33	7.23	0.64	0.24
	26.06	7.17	0.64	40.68
	39.47	8.70	0.64	72.60
	54.41	10.70	0.64	102.75
	70.16	12.19	0.64	131.83
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The benefits of using biogas are many and the economic case improves considerably if these non-economic benefits are fully taken into account. In the Stated Policies Scenario, close to 150 Mtoe of biogas is produced globally by 2040, over 40% of which is in China and India. In the Sustainable Development Scenario, there is a more pronounced increase in biogas production: it reaches around 330 Mtoe in 2040, utilising around 40% of the total sustainable technical potential.


Energy efficiency


Introduction

Energy efficiency is at the heart of any strategy to guarantee secure, sustainable and inclusive economic growth. It is one of the most cost-effective ways to enhance security of energy supply, to boost competitiveness and welfare, and to reduce the environmental footprint of the energy system.

Outlook by scenario

	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East 	Eurasia	Asia Pacific
2018	0.11	0.09	0.08	0.12	0.12	0.17	0.1
2030	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.1	0.11	0.14	0.07
2040	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.08	0.1	0.12	0.05
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	North America	Central and South America	Europe	Africa	Middle East 	Eurasia	Asia Pacific
2018	0.11	0.09	0.08	0.12	0.12	0.17	0.1
2030	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.06	0.09	0.12	0.06
2040	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.05	0.07	0.09	0.04
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In the Stated Policies Scenario, primary energy demand expands by around a quarter between 2018 and 2040 at an average annual growth rate of 1%. This rate is slower than in the past (it was 1.4% between 2010 and 2018, and 2.7% in the preceding decade) as energy consumption and economic growth continue to decouple. In the Sustainable Development Scenario, energy demand in 2040 is 25% lower than in the Stated Policies Scenario.

Additional energy efficiency improvements are the biggest factor that keeps final consumption in end-use sectors in the Sustainable Development Scenario below the levels seen in the Stated Policies Scenario, responsible for 60% of the savings. Almost half of these energy efficiency savings come from industry, with major contributions also from transport and buildings.

Energy intensity improves in the Stated Policies Scenario by 2.3% annually to 2040. This is a slightly higher rate than in the period since 2010 and about twice the rate in 2000-2010. The link between GDP growth and energy demand growth continues to weaken by 2040. The largest improvements are projected in China, India and European Union. Energy intensity in the Sustainable Development Scenario improves much faster at a rate of 3.6% a year on average. The biggest improvements are in India, China and Africa.

Key trends

	STEPS	Efficiency	Renewables	Fuel switching	Nuclear	CCUS	Other	SDS	SDS blank
2010	30.41152918							30.41152918	30.41152918
2011	31.21747595							31.21747595	31.21747595
2012	31.59705269							31.59705269	31.59705269
2013	32.17745653							32.17745653	32.17745653
2014	32.24915007							32.24915007	32.24915007
2015	32.2369724	0	0	0	0	0	0	32.2369724	32.2369724
2016	32.20186175	0	0	0	0	0	0	32.20186175	32.20186175
2017	32.63113352	0	0	0	0	0	0	32.63113352	32.63113352
2018	33.24345957	0.000159055	1.61473E-07	-0.00014029	0	-0.002555104	0.000191177	33.24579184	33.24579184
2019	33.55900545	0.161423481	0.115617486	-0.011667629	0.006596772	-0.002671574	0.059033763	33.23069891	33.23069891
2020	33.69501355	0.567793892	0.236583335	-0.030021939	0.025903461	-0.000687619	0.11016797	32.78525587	32.78525587
2021	33.81508919	0.927958261	0.361430307	-0.047477731	0.046250326	0.006363563	0.210485773	32.31004494	32.31004494
2022	33.91818249	1.241965815	0.563343147	-0.053240044	0.066637881	0.024104984	0.322179418	31.75318801	31.75318801
2023	34.07337502	1.614186776	0.773743732	-0.051595128	0.091017006	0.055311802	0.439543313	31.1511375	31.1511375
2024	34.20408385	1.994303485	1.008393474	-0.04199826	0.111255449	0.095184481	0.551646173	30.48530285	30.48530285
2025	34.34621093	2.354407615	1.296081536	-0.020278977	0.140069889	0.149580918	0.651220519	29.77516191	29.77516191
2026	34.45559563	2.734379779	1.605702528	0.010445069	0.165627266	0.236632408	0.77595605	28.9268564	28.9268564
2027	34.57258821	3.111594101	1.936115487	0.050679707	0.192641339	0.33273284	0.908750526	28.04008732	28.04008732
2028	34.67804272	3.502936239	2.259767532	0.097412438	0.21598284	0.437048701	1.04330455	27.1215675	27.1215675
2029	34.78158452	3.892689434	2.585260112	0.164430977	0.23462832	0.542862094	1.176928163	26.18473775	26.18473775
2030	34.86006292	4.251698394	2.923137456	0.25193441	0.270510487	0.66026846	1.321046394	25.18147	25.18147
2031	34.90493223	4.608630372	3.279368094	0.359849717	0.284852214	0.784407018	1.431564385	24.15626579	24.15626579
2032	34.9944681	4.938353438	3.636532554	0.474834602	0.325848046	0.918609412	1.542432348	23.15784182	23.15784182
2033	35.04615722	5.25799374	3.978377657	0.587071595	0.363087394	1.05230487	1.648899344	22.15843294	22.15843294
2034	35.11552335	5.605505969	4.299313164	0.701029288	0.382290136	1.179497034	1.75766721	21.19022851	21.19022851
2035	35.19809816	5.944002427	4.62590755	0.812392904	0.411381437	1.304666908	1.880591374	20.21914295	20.21914295
2036	35.23099	6.247721483	4.956300994	0.916011898	0.435669762	1.431862281	1.983862283	19.25955949	19.25955949
2037	35.2923543	6.530316342	5.291057083	1.020571004	0.450113504	1.541773467	2.083401601	18.37512508	18.37512508
2038	35.40678775	6.7897653	5.637826295	1.140810461	0.482068006	1.660657057	2.19157548	17.50409869	17.50409869
2039	35.50673091	7.055647062	5.982568136	1.267661229	0.496253884	1.775249596	2.296134693	16.63321121	16.63321121
2040	35.58880221	7.27081265	6.317858354	1.407729778	0.516252359	1.886883682	2.393599977	15.79567537	15.79567537
2041	35.65237355	7.456986325	6.631129827	1.588009566	0.523410753	1.99067785	2.504273579	14.95787981	14.95787981
2042	35.72859179	7.598901224	6.935111397	1.779237174	0.529844171	2.087949416	2.597758918	14.19980154	14.19980154
2043	35.79072282	7.712190832	7.234003401	1.973007254	0.533496577	2.147699892	2.684979744	13.50534674	13.50534674
2044	35.86128181	7.799428815	7.509002207	2.179504905	0.546835491	2.202902197	2.766455886	12.85714421	12.85714421
2045	35.90372266	7.842214408	7.771743236	2.413504845	0.571265541	2.249515171	2.838539699	12.21695808	12.21695808
2046	35.90005302	7.835714871	8.029625053	2.64870216	0.570634018	2.29537818	2.890409918	11.62960169	11.62960169
2047	35.91850722	7.776027483	8.297247836	2.884422867	0.591723413	2.341504876	2.937409426	11.09014879	11.09014879
2048	35.92278054	7.735737466	8.548241889	3.054756638	0.596093129	2.337121158	3.025707719	10.62512263	10.62512263
2049	35.8941121	7.776365607	8.715038011	3.20742371	0.580094993	2.30042957	3.135360809	10.17941062	10.17941062
2050	35.86393157	7.830651409	8.852711085	3.36527202	0.553957049	2.272503451	3.238365686	9.750464998	9.750464998
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	2018	2040 Stated Policies	2040 Sustainable Development	2018	Stated Policies 2040	Sustainable Development 2040
0h	696.9521974	574.54	234.12			
1h	686.6720528	568.03	225.69			
2h	679.5436401	562.52	224.48			
3h	672.3167313	554.23	210.76			
4h	670.09	546.26	199.37			
5h	673.0954628	542.2714041	196.2301096			
6h	684.9675959	542.5017335	201.1391864			
7h	691.171762	523.4701621	207.6036062			
8h	683.0568439	445.5781952	148.9141836			
9h	661.4189706	315.6395491	93.8015129			
10h	646.4102062	260.0335176	53.48215492			
11h	628.5804989	183.1756614	38.75191159			
12h	618.9950121	137.2553115	33.62804771			
13h	613.1125821	131.2915414	33.129711			
14h	621.0385872	155.8620906	36.09565564			
15h	640.1609854	224.233539	43.7641121			
16h	662.7450931	299.9876966	65.26031347			
17h	690.616089	372.0230847	126.5648806			
18h	710.1240195	429.6319692	181.6672955			
19h	718.7324547	479.0050486	195.4713561			
20h	715.069986	513.9712859	205.204225			
21h	715.1043702	549.9425537	217.2448295			
22h	714.4096659	572.6834486	228.5830476			
23h	707.7136944	579.2785427	242.0352428			
24h	696.9521974	574.5409259	234.1208365			
0	null	null	null	null	null	null
0	null	null	null	null	null	null
0h	241.7492515	87.12748128	53.28180845	241.7492515	87.12748128	53.28180845
1h	221.5244879	73.90629539	37.72441142	221.5244879	73.90629539	37.72441142
2h	210.4747226	66.33402933	33.88007112	210.4747226	66.33402933	33.88007112
3h	202.10	61.77	32.62	202.10	61.77	32.62
4h	199.36	59.16	32.48	199.36	59.16	32.48
5h	199.777705	57.54657614	33.08782515	199.777705	57.54657614	33.08782515
6h	203.8914483	57.61247465	33.17553832	203.8914483	57.61247465	33.17553832
7h	223.0663841	60.16429057	36.17621045	223.0663841	60.16429057	36.17621045
8h	231.9836156	61.05140261	36.78482156	231.9836156	61.05140261	36.78482156
9h	232.900996	59.53532056	35.57736739	232.900996	59.53532056	35.57736739
10h	229.6116083	53.64533047	30.0297285	229.6116083	53.64533047	30.0297285
11h	228.8781199	50.09863599	28.22414019	228.8781199	50.09863599	28.22414019
12h	229.9484744	48.56270181	26.74814884	229.9484744	48.56270181	26.74814884
13h	227.0460617	47.72478521	25.96208305	227.0460617	47.72478521	25.96208305
14h	229.9432841	49.13917909	25.53046856	229.9432841	49.13917909	25.53046856
15h	236.4601375	53.11260125	27.3597489	236.4601375	53.11260125	27.3597489
16h	246.2473577	62.50543588	35.69216246	246.2473577	62.50543588	35.69216246
17h	259.6234231	77.97928677	52.48679451	259.6234231	77.97928677	52.48679451
18h	273.1955676	99.34606337	69.44959141	273.1955676	99.34606337	69.44959141
19h	280.8945084	112.7292427	83.43140667	280.8945084	112.7292427	83.43140667
20h	282.35575	117.0320134	86.30203766	282.35575	117.0320134	86.30203766
21h	279.3462826	117.5769481	85.32440886	279.3462826	117.5769481	85.32440886
22h	274.3919987	110.8658328	79.04850807	274.3919987	110.8658328	79.04850807
23h	260.4489959	101.1506715	71.16608791	260.4489959	101.1506715	71.16608791
24h	241.7492515	87.12748128	53.28180845	241.7492515	87.12748128	53.28180845
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	}]
}

The energy transformation in the Sustainable Development Scenario implies changes in demand for materials, some of them counter-intuitive, including more steel for renewable energy infrastructure and more aluminium for electric vehicles. Greater emphasis on materials efficiency and materials recycling, reuse and substitution succeeds in reversing the historic trend of growing emissions for steel and cement, leading to a stronger decline in industrial CO₂ emissions.