World Energy Outlook 2019

The gold standard of energy analysis

"The world urgently needs to put a laser-like focus on bringing down global emissions. This calls for a grand coalition encompassing governments, investors, companies and everyone else who is committed to tackling climate change."
Dr Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director


Deep disparities define today’s energy world: oil markets and geopolitical tensions, carbon emissions and climate targets, the promise of energy for all and the lack of electricity access for 850 million people around the world.

World Energy Outlook 2019 explores these widening fractures in detail. It explains the impact of today’s decisions on tomorrow’s energy systems, and describes a pathway that enables the world to meet climate, energy access and air quality goals while maintaining a strong focus on the reliability and affordability of energy for a growing global population.

Read press release Purchase WEO 2019 Launch presentation


Introduction


The energy world is marked by a series of deep disparities. The gap between the promise of energy for all and the fact that almost one billion people still do not have access to electricity. The gap between the latest scientific evidence highlighting the need for evermore- rapid cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions and the data showing that energy-related emissions hit another historic high in 2018. The gap between expectations of fast, renewables-driven energy transitions and the reality of today’s energy systems in which reliance on fossil fuels remains stubbornly high. And the gap between the calm in wellsupplied oil markets and the lingering unease over geopolitical tensions and uncertainties. 

More than ever, energy decision makers need to take a hard, evidence-based look at where they stand and the implications of the choices they make. The World Energy Outlook does not provide a forecast of what will happen. Instead, it provides a set of scenarios that explore different possible futures, the actions – or inactions – that bring them about and the interconnections between different parts of the system. 

The Current Policies Scenario shows what happens if the world continues along its present path, without any additional changes in policy. In this scenario, energy demand rises by 1.3% each year to 2040, with increasing demand for energy services unrestrained by further efforts to improve efficiency. While this is well below the remarkable 2.3% growth seen in 2018, it would result in a relentless upward march in energy-related emissions, as well as growing strains on almost all aspects of energy security. 

The Stated Policies Scenario, by contrast, incorporates today’s policy intentions and targets. Previously known as the New Policies Scenario, it has been renamed to underline that it considers only specific policy initiatives that have already been announced. The aim is to hold up a mirror to the plans of today’s policy makers and illustrate their consequences, not to guess how these policy preferences may change in the future. 

In the Stated Policies Scenario, energy demand rises by 1% per year to 2040. Low-carbon sources, led by solar photovoltaics (PV), supply more than half of this growth, and natural gas, boosted by rising trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG), accounts for another third. Oil demand flattens out in the 2030s, and coal use edges lower. Some parts of the energy sector, led by electricity, undergo rapid transformations. Some countries, notably those with “net zero” aspirations, go far in reshaping all aspects of their supply and consumption. However, the momentum behind clean energy technologies is not enough to offset the effects of an expanding global economy and growing population. The rise in emissions slows but, with no peak before 2040, the world falls far short of shared sustainability goals.


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The Sustainable Development Scenario maps out a way to meet sustainable energy goals in full, requiring rapid and widespread changes across all parts of the energy system. This scenario charts a path fully aligned with the Paris Agreement by holding the rise in global temperatures to “well below 2°C … and pursuing efforts to limit [it] to 1.5°C”, and meets objectives related to universal energy access and cleaner air. The breadth of the world’s energy needs means that there are no simple or single solutions. Sharp emission cuts are achieved across the board thanks to multiple fuels and technologies providing efficient and cost-effective energy services for all.

Compare the new SDS 2019 to IPCC scenarios with a temperature rise in 2100

Energy security remains paramount, and oil stays in the spotlight


A fast-moving energy sector highlights the importance of a broad and dynamic approach to energy security. The attacks in Saudi Arabia in September 2019 underlined that traditional energy security risks have not gone away. Meanwhile, new hazards – from cybersecurity to extreme weather – require constant vigilance from governments. We estimate that almost one-fifth of the growth in global energy use in 2018 was due to hotter summers pushing up demand for cooling and cold snaps leading to higher heating needs.

Shale output from the United States stays higher for longer, reshaping global markets, trade flows and security. Annual US production growth slows from the breakneck pace seen in recent years, but updated official estimates of underlying resources nonetheless mean that the United States accounts for 85% of the increase in global oil production to 2030 in the Stated Policies Scenario, and for 30% of the increase in gas. This bolsters the position of the United States as an exporter of both fuels. By 2025, total US shale output (oil and gas) overtakes total oil and gas production from Russia.

	US tight liquids
2005	0.71697
2019	11.16983
2030	16.08074
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	Share of OPEC + Russia
2005	53.71573359
2019	49.42367099
2030	46.85459854
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Higher US output pushes down the share of OPEC countries and Russia in total oil production. This share drops to 47% in 2030, from 55% in the mid-2000s, implying that efforts to manage conditions in the oil market could face strong headwinds. Pressures on the hydrocarbon revenues of some of the world’s major producers also underline the importance of their efforts to diversify their economies.

Whichever pathway the energy system follows, the world still relies heavily on oil supply from the Middle East. The region remains by far the largest net provider of oil to world markets, as well as an important exporter of LNG. This means that one of the world’s busiest trade routes, the Strait of Hormuz, retains its position as a crucial artery for global energy trade, especially for Asian countries such as China, India, Japan and Korea that rely heavily on imported fuel. In the Stated Policies Scenario, 80% of international oil trade ends up in Asia in 2040, propelled in large part by a doubling of India’s import needs.

Electricity moves to the heart of modern energy security


Cost reductions in renewables and advances in digital technologies are opening huge opportunities for energy transitions, while creating some new energy security dilemmas. Wind and solar PV provide more than half of the additional electricity generation to 2040 in the Stated Policies Scenario and almost all the growth in the Sustainable Development Scenario. Policy makers and regulators will have to move fast to keep up with the pace of technological change and the rising need for flexible operation of power systems. Issues such as the market design for storage, the interface between electric vehicles and the grid, and data privacy all have the potential to expose consumers to new risks.

Hour-to-hour adjustments required in power systems due to variability in demand, wind and solar

2018

2040

European Union

United States

China

India

50%

2040 numbers show that flexibility needs are set to increase rapidly in major markets

Each dot represents one hour in the year

Highest amount of hourly flexibility needed in the year

25%

0%

-25%

-50%

The rise of the African energy consumer


Africa – the special focus of WEO-2019 – is increasingly influential for global energy trends. In the Stated Policies Scenario, the rise in Africa’s oil consumption to 2040 is larger than that of China, while the continent also sees a major expansion in natural gas use, prompted in part by a series of large discoveries made in recent years. The big open question for Africa remains the speed at which solar PV will grow. To date, a continent with the richest solar resources in the world has installed only around 5 gigawatts (GW) of solar PV, less than 1% of the global total. Solar PV would provide the cheapest source of electricity for many of the 600 million people across Africa without electricity access today.

	2018	Growth to 2040
China	1.40	0.02
India	1.35315	0.24014
Africa	1.2873927	0.8081001
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Africa’s infrastructure development is not set to follow the same path, but the energy implications of African urbanisation trends are still profound. The expected growth in population in Africa’s hottest regions also means that up to half a billion additional people would need air conditioners or other cooling services by 2040. Our Africa analysis underlines that the planning, design and governance of the world’s growing cities, the industrial materials that are used in their construction, and the transport options that are available to their inhabitants are critical issues for the global outlook.

Africa's role in global energy growth, 2018-40

 

An urgent need to take full advantage of the world’s “first fuel”


The faltering momentum behind global energy efficiency improvements is cause for deep concern. It comes against a backdrop of rising needs for heating, cooling, lighting, mobility and other energy services. Improvements in the energy intensity of the global economy (the amount of energy used per unit of economic activity) are slowing: the 1.2% improvement in 2018 was around half the average rate seen since 2010. This reflects a relative lack of new energy efficiency policies and of efforts to tighten existing measures.

	Energy-intensive industry	Light industry	Services	Residential	Transport	Other 
2000-18	577.65	439.59	294.73	360.14	905.27	333.98
STEPS - 2019-40	230.27	635.14	323.16	299.90	701.29	338.76
SDS - 2019-40	-45.92560988	1.298582656	39.39842312	-450.6562183	-275.5683315	142.28954
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A sharp pick-up in efficiency improvements is the single most important element that brings the world towards the Sustainable Development Scenario. The pursuit of all economically viable opportunities for efficiency improvement can reduce global energy intensity by more than 3% each year. This includes efforts to promote the efficient design, use and recycling of materials such as steel, aluminium, cement and plastics. This increased “material efficiency” could be enough in itself to halt the growth in emissions from these sectors. Innovative approaches also include the use of digital tools to shift electricity demand to cheaper and less emissions-intensive hours of the day, reducing electricity bills for consumers and helping with system balancing, while also helping to reduce emissions.

Critical fuel choices hang in the balance


A three-way race is underway among coal, natural gas and renewables to provide power and heat to Asia’s fast-growing economies. Coal is the incumbent in most developing Asian countries: new investment decisions in coal-using infrastructure have slowed sharply, but the large stock of existing coal-using power plants and factories (and the 170 GW of capacity under construction worldwide), provides coal with considerable staying power in the Stated Policies Scenario.

Renewables are the main challenger to coal in Asia’s power sector, led by China and India. Developing countries in Asia account for over half of the global growth in generation from renewables. Demand for natural gas has been growing fast as a fuel for industry and (in China) for residential consumers, spurring a worldwide wave of investment in new LNG supply and pipeline connections. In our projections, 70% of the increase in Asia’s gas use comes from imports – largely from LNG – but the competitiveness of this gas in price-sensitive markets remains a key uncertainty. 

	Domestic supply	Net exports	Net imports
European Union	-79.2981	0	-3.756
Rest of world	177.18042	0	-51.19767
Eurasia	78.749	145.621	0
Africa	159.5558	108.9152	0
North America	159.9826	133.2174	0
Other developing Asia	65.7074	0	290.3443
Middle East	276.923	94.095	0
China	146.173	0	231.459
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In the Stated Policies Scenario, global growth in oil demand slows markedly post-2025 before flattening out in the 2030s. Oil demand for long-distance freight, shipping and aviation, and petrochemicals continues to grow. But its use in passenger cars peaks in the late 2020s due to fuel efficiency improvements and fuel switching, mainly to electricity. Lower battery costs are an important part of the story: electric cars in some major markets soon become cost-competitive, on a total-cost-of-ownership basis, with conventional cars. 

Consumer preferences for SUVs could offset the benefits from electric cars. The growing appetite among consumers for bigger and heavier cars (SUVs) is already adding extra barrels to global oil consumption. SUVs are more difficult to electrify fully, and conventional SUVs consume 25% more fuel per kilometre than medium-sized cars. If the popularity of SUVs continues to rise in line with recent trends, this could add another 2 million barrels per day to our projection for 2040 oil demand.

However fast overall energy demand grows, electricity grows faster


Electricity use grows at more than double the pace of overall energy demand in the Stated Policies Scenario, confirming its place at the heart of modern economies. Growth in electricity use in the Stated Policies Scenario is led by industrial motors (notably in China), followed by household appliances, cooling and electric vehicles. In the Sustainable Development Scenario, electricity is one of the few energy sources that sees growing consumption in 2040 – mainly due to electric vehicles – alongside the direct use of renewables, and hydrogen. The share of electricity in final consumption, less than half that of oil today, overtakes oil by 2040.

	2000-2018	2000-2018
Oil	919	0
Electricity	0	822
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Electricity		1146.014919
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Solar PV becomes the largest component of global installed capacity in the Stated Policies Scenario. The expansion of generation from wind and solar PV helps renewables overtake coal in the power generation mix in the mid-2020s. By 2040, low-carbon sources provide more than half of total electricity generation. Wind and solar PV are the star performers, but hydropower (15% of total generation in 2040) and nuclear (8%) retain major shares.

	Coal	Gas	Oil	Nuclear	Wind	Solar PV	Other renewables	Hydro	Battery storage
2000	1143.5177	798.7313182	447.693367	384.383	16.91706	0.80197401	49.15645105	787.6302246	
2001	1161.67197	860.5726385	447.159126	387.261	23.9462	1.085438816	52.45803612	795.8486211	
2002	1178.8859	956.3419468	444.650501	391.579	30.709265	1.443747706	56.30402385	809.7285481	
2003	1201.63019	1035.158766	444.94814	392.281	38.64335	1.968545027	59.92221605	828.6397711	
2004	1233.20949	1088.082685	439.741544	395.771	47.66188	3.063513421	62.13505065	850.3956961	
2005	1283.36907	1130.574169	437.327332	398.696	58.382354	4.517860102	67.12036711	871.6429921	
2006	1371.51034	1177.236731	433.825407	397.876	73.125712	6.033094816	74.3551537	896.5375341	
2007	1438.47693	1218.267683	430.938321	399.862	91.49627	8.42817699	79.2109502	927.1672661	
2008	1503.32384	1259.158735	430.706684	399.422	115.514508	14.63730771	82.69206029	959.5462851	0.688484
2009	1566.55635	1314.681276	432.233602	397.874	150.078298	22.7249442	87.64280587	993.289413	0.710866
2010	1628.60824	1374.494389	436.095338	401.407	180.77971	39.62400079	99.54497589	1025.883764	0.744171
2011	1712.63652	1422.363411	440.300849	393.946	219.833365	70.1569536	106.0538622	1058.483672	0.82905189
2012	1774.0645	1473.911522	438.961924	395.181	266.634563	99.82922433	115.738862	1092.348514	0.90097186
2013	1820.88438	1511.802354	435.474857	393.882	299.437508	136.3571208	124.238169	1136.446459	1.10030473
2014	1888.46494	1570.281281	440.121206	398.359	348.931031	176.6727639	131.8087405	1174.37252	1.5076802
2015	1961.35053	1612.119481	439.198919	405.295	416.453767	225.7030249	139.1378969	1208.71166	2.21242191
2016	2023.29182	1639.890972	447.015781	414.045	467.150378	301.113758	148.5444296	1244.560588	3.4455203
2017	2070.6868	1692.56929	449.503635	413.318	514.930329	398.6121222	155.9456879	1269.393402	5.174240053
2018	2078.6616	1744.784976	450.088488	419.295	565.604579	495.4644252	165.9846027	1289.555039	8.175883226
2019	2111.810389	1829.882062	432.2320955	417.884	623.8819372	606.6367779	175.5196322	1308.193126	15.70489473
2020	2125.790605	1875.598324	413.5270801	419.119	688.2511474	715.4824246	184.1297103	1338.065639	23.66204933
2021	2129.713747	1918.4766	397.6340518	420.439	746.9086459	825.069863	192.3564874	1359.149663	31.26188413
2022	2124.460972	1965.456937	380.1914594	417.276	804.0987238	942.8699589	200.5226135	1375.611435	39.52630753
2023	2114.408814	2005.637425	367.6741413	412.235	860.6161612	1069.673195	208.4330213	1398.263807	47.82624663
2024	2112.065295	2036.398122	354.1673294	415.737	921.4684905	1201.875096	216.0239715	1419.463273	55.49539803
2025	2106.150412	2069.661728	344.0043035	416.636	979.7880841	1308.635673	225.8938447	1447.781214	63.41724663
2026	2099.308834	2101.453416	331.6517697	419.985	1039.78821	1415.049738	235.9112033	1476.329828	72.16806633
2027	2097.066699	2133.619337	324.76143	425.427	1100.146096	1522.14741	246.1432596	1504.351348	81.91052563
2028	2099.699006	2177.622388	317.1787531	429.492	1161.53597	1631.418132	256.7035688	1532.135301	93.50919693
2029	2106.109823	2216.73533	306.8132457	431.315	1224.183025	1745.587035	267.6824756	1559.293578	107.392913
2030	2110.736483	2253.709979	298.0207642	436.386	1288.206862	1865.588416	279.247007	1585.583831	126.4081748
2031	2115.574106	2286.81918	293.0517088	442.4496	1351.564841	1984.675568	291.3308755	1610.901018	144.8827254
2032	2120.143409	2328.128024	288.2140674	443.3966	1414.578901	2104.198363	303.5632384	1635.368257	164.6444502
2033	2123.282724	2364.639445	284.5491458	451.2176	1476.038702	2225.38035	316.1440823	1659.403815	183.4224365
2034	2127.898714	2408.330394	277.0817548	455.5256	1536.222258	2349.337352	329.0321487	1683.102272	204.2806046
2035	2131.846399	2447.893222	271.125805	459.1106	1594.483453	2476.123451	342.2517627	1706.763372	225.0955996
2036	2136.639425	2484.542453	264.5921203	467.7216	1649.191113	2605.508917	355.7558294	1730.170479	244.8214485
2037	2142.449781	2525.107455	258.4066561	474.7446	1702.918551	2738.273106	369.7078732	1753.373901	266.7496861
2038	2150.451959	2571.849624	251.3824799	475.7966	1754.414244	2872.303779	383.7107183	1776.400079	288.8415251
2039	2162.97628	2606.669443	245.4966982	480.7466	1805.947939	3007.374689	397.976666	1799.358277	307.7971536
2040	2171.280983	2651.172228	239.1338545	482.4816	1856.270498	3142.022993	412.5079163	1822.312482	331.5171776
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The speed at which battery costs decline is a critical variable for power markets as well as for electric cars. India is the largest overall source of energy demand growth in this year’s Outlook, and we examine how a cost-effective combination of cheaper battery storage and solar PV could reshape the evolution of India’s power mix in the coming decades. Battery storage is well suited to provide the short-term flexibility that India needs, allowing a lunchtime peak in solar PV supply to meet an early evening peak in demand. In the Stated Policies Scenario, a major reduction in battery costs means that some 120 GW of storage are installed by 2040.

We also examine the possibility that battery costs could decline even faster – an extra 40% by 2040 – because of greater industrial economies of scale or a breakthrough in battery chemistry, for example. In this case, combined solar and battery storage plants would be a very compelling economic and environmental proposition, reducing sharply India’s projected investment in new coal-fired power plants. 

 

Offshore wind is gathering speed


Cost reductions and experience gained in Europe’s North Sea are opening up a huge renewable resource. Offshore wind has the technical potential to meet today’s electricity demand many times over. It is a variable source of generation, but offshore wind offers considerably higher capacity factors than solar PV and onshore wind thanks to ever-larger turbines that tap higher and more reliable wind speeds farther away from shore. There are further innovations on the horizon, including floating turbines that can open up new resources and markets. 

	Electricity demand	Offshore wind potential
European Union	2884	33844
United States	4010.79	8086.03
Japan	993.74	8080.32
China	6329.53	1993.23
India	1242.82	4753.26
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Increasingly cost-competitive offshore wind projects are on course to attract a trillion dollars of investment to 2040. Europe’s success with the technology has sparked interest in China, the United States and elsewhere. In the Sustainable Development Scenario, offshore wind rivals its onshore counterpart as the leading source of electricity generation in the European Union, paving the way to full decarbonisation of Europe’s power sector. Even higher deployment is possible if offshore wind becomes the foundation for the production of low-carbon hydrogen.

Tackling the legacy issues head on


If the world is to turn today’s emissions trend around, it will need to focus not only on new infrastructure but also on the emissions that are “locked in” to existing systems. That means addressing emissions from existing power plants, factories, cargo ships and other capital-intensive infrastructure already in use. Despite rapid changes in the power sector, there is no decline in annual power-related CO2 emissions in the Stated Policies Scenario. A key reason is the longevity of the existing stock of coal-fired power plants that account for 30% of all energy-related emissions today. 

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	  	CCUS retrofits or repurposing	Early retirements	Existing and under construction	Sustainable Development Scenario
2000	6.45198234	0	0	6.45198234	
2001	6.60134681	0	0	6.60134681	
2002	6.75242649	0	0	6.75242649	
2003	7.25164619	0	0	7.25164619	
2004	7.52019314	0	0	7.52019314	
2005	7.79030977	0	0	7.79030977	
2006	8.20921176	0	0	8.20921176	
2007	8.59824068	0	0	8.59824068	
2008	8.55834829	0	0	8.55834829	
2009	8.40094732	0	0	8.40094732	
2010	8.94215021	0	0	8.94215021	
2011	9.41965431	0	0	9.41965431	
2012	9.535605	0	0	9.535605	
2013	9.86297314	0	0	9.86297314	
2014	9.83443261	0	0	9.83443261	
2015	9.57689458	0	0	9.57689458	
2016	9.52878201	0	0	9.52878201	
2017	9.75915202	0	0	9.75915202	
2018	10.06587916	0	0	10.06587916	10.06587916
2019	10.0085464	0.124599077	0.001985428	10.13513091	10.0085464
2020	9.592084802	0.450070253	0.035713674	10.07786873	9.592084802
2021	9.248153483	0.744454824	0.04382479	10.0364331	9.248153483
2022	8.831592642	1.089507501	0.059201222	9.980301365	8.831592642
2023	8.378059952	1.425026303	0.116106908	9.919193164	8.378059952
2024	7.936225587	1.712396323	0.199134182	9.847756093	7.936225587
2025	7.480667815	1.925425652	0.338222522	9.744315989	7.480667815
2026	6.95089933	2.213437616	0.482392946	9.646729892	6.95089933
2027	6.417821052	2.474871112	0.615981785	9.508673949	6.417821052
2028	5.912783761	2.698377665	0.739971773	9.351133199	5.912783761
2029	5.431133159	2.961340776	0.843982692	9.236456627	5.431133159
2030	4.954098847	3.205153173	0.942278403	9.101530422	4.954098847
2031	4.487589646	3.468652387	1.026608606	8.982850639	4.487589646
2032	4.057975969	3.704355143	1.081132622	8.843463733	4.057975969
2033	3.632188535	3.88453176	1.156904647	8.673624943	3.632188535
2034	3.244944769	4.082800278	1.192066691	8.519811738	3.244944769
2035	2.87203698	4.287960724	1.204523474	8.364521178	2.87203698
2036	2.501867673	4.460184007	1.232854995	8.194906674	2.501867673
2037	2.200518517	4.562415416	1.255896903	8.018830835	2.200518517
2038	1.886993578	4.715079321	1.256781938	7.858854837	1.886993578
2039	1.600646548	4.834038646	1.281327433	7.716012627	1.600646548
2040	1.331595765	4.930867971	1.295210415	7.557674151	1.331595765
2041	1.081341401	5.022295636	1.283980292	7.387617329	1.081341401
2042	0.882421087	5.070680539	1.268811656	7.221913282	0.882421087
2043	0.662360201	5.107978994	1.279339587	7.049678783	0.662360201
2044	0.509799369	5.084171678	1.290814995	6.884786043	0.509799369
2045	0.359400818	5.037585325	1.308856578	6.705842722	0.359400818
2046	0.24783436	4.991172244	1.313332119	6.552338724	0.24783436
2047	0.122143958	4.993014121	1.322592052	6.437750131	0.122143958
2048	0.117187682	4.991919997	1.218258387	6.327366067	0.117187682
2049	0.107794429	4.893692196	1.187320798	6.188807423	0.107794429
2050	0.087663985	4.787907515	1.152597527	6.028169027	0.087663985
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Over the past 20 years, Asia has accounted for 90% of all coal-fired capacity built worldwide, and these plants have potentially long operational lifetimes ahead of them. In developing economies in Asia, existing coal-fired plants are just 12 years old on average. We consider three options to bring down emissions from the existing stock of plants: to retrofit them with carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) or biomass co-firing equipment; to repurpose them to focus on providing system adequacy and flexibility while reducing operations; or to retire them early. In the Sustainable Development Scenario, most of the 2 080 GW of existing coal-fired capacity would be affected by one of these three options. 

What’s in the pipeline for gas?


Gas grids provide a crucial mechanism to bring energy to consumers, typically delivering more energy than electricity networks and providing a valuable source of flexibility. From an energy security perspective, parallel gas and electricity grids can be complementary assets. From an energy transitions perspective, natural gas can provide near-term benefits when replacing more polluting fuels. A key longer-term question is whether gas grids can deliver truly low- or zero-carbon energy sources, such as low-carbon hydrogen and biomethane.

Low-carbon hydrogen is enjoying a wave of interest, although for the moment it is relatively expensive to produce. Blending it into gas networks would offer a way to scale up supply technologies and reduce costs. Our new assessment of the sustainable potential for biomethane supply (produced from organic wastes and residues) suggests that it could cover some 20% of today’s gas demand. Recognition of the value of avoided CO2 and methane emissions would go a long way towards improving the cost competitiveness of both options. 

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}

Shale and solar PV show that rapid change is possible, but the direction and speed is set by governments


Ten years ago, the idea that the United States could become a net exporter of both oil and gas was almost unthinkable. Yet the shale revolution – and over $1 trillion in upstream and midstream investment – is making this a reality. The foundations date back to a publicly funded research and development effort that began in the 1970s. This was followed by tax credits, market reforms and partnerships that provided a platform for private initiative, innovation, investment and rapid reductions in cost.


Today, solar PV and some other renewable technologies – mostly in the power sector – are similarly turning initial policy and financial support into large-scale deployment. Transforming the entire energy system will require progress across a much wider range of energy technologies, including efficiency, CCUS, hydrogen, nuclear and others. It will also require action across all sectors, not just electricity.

Energy-related CO2 emissions and reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario by source

Current Trends

40

Stated Policies Scenario

Electric motors efficiency

Gt CO2

Building efficiency

Power efficiency

Light industry efficiency

Cars & trucks efficiency

30

Heavy industry efficiency

Air conditioners efficiency

Aviation & shipping efficiency

Wind

Solar PV

Biofuels transport

Other renewables in power

Other renewables in end-uses

20

Hydro

Nuclear

Other fuel switch incl. hydrogen

Sustainable Development Scenario

Electric vehicles

CCUS power

CCUS non-power

Behavioural change

Resource efficiency

10

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Meeting rising demand for energy services, including universal access, while cutting emissions is a formidable task: all can help, but governments must take the lead. Initiatives from individuals, civil society, companies and investors can make a major difference, but the greatest capacity to shape our energy destiny lies with governments. It is governments that set the conditions that determine energy innovation and investment. It is governments to whom the world looks for clear signals and unambiguous direction about the road ahead.