# World Energy Outlook 2019

The gold standard of energy analysis

"The world urgently needs to put a laser-like focus on bringing down global emissions. This calls for a grand coalition encompassing governments, investors, companies and everyone else who is committed to tackling climate change."

Dr Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director

Deep disparities define today’s energy world: oil markets and geopolitical tensions, carbon emissions and climate targets, the promise of energy for all and the lack of electricity access for 850 million people around the world.

World Energy Outlook 2019 explores these widening fractures in detail. It explains the impact of today’s decisions on tomorrow’s energy systems, and describes a pathway that enables the world to meet climate, energy access and air quality goals while maintaining a strong focus on the reliability and affordability of energy for a growing global population.

## Introduction

**The energy world is marked by a series of deep disparities.** The gap between the promise of energy for all and the fact that almost one billion people still do not have access to electricity. The gap between the latest scientific evidence highlighting the need for evermore- rapid cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions and the data showing that energy-related emissions hit another historic high in 2018. The gap between expectations of fast, renewables-driven energy transitions and the reality of today’s energy systems in which reliance on fossil fuels remains stubbornly high. And the gap between the calm in wellsupplied oil markets and the lingering unease over geopolitical tensions and uncertainties.

**More than ever, energy decision makers need to take a hard, evidence-based look at where they stand and the implications of the choices they make.** The World Energy Outlook does not provide a forecast of what will happen. Instead, it provides a set of scenarios that explore different possible futures, the actions – or inactions – that bring them about and the interconnections between different parts of the system.

**The Current Policies Scenario shows what happens if the world continues along its present path, without any additional changes in policy.** In this scenario, energy demand rises by 1.3% each year to 2040, with increasing demand for energy services unrestrained by further efforts to improve efficiency. While this is well below the remarkable 2.3% growth seen in 2018, it would result in a relentless upward march in energy-related emissions, as well as growing strains on almost all aspects of energy security.

**The Stated Policies Scenario, by contrast, incorporates today’s policy intentions and targets.** Previously known as the New Policies Scenario, it has been renamed to underline that it considers only specific policy initiatives that have already been announced. The aim is to hold up a mirror to the plans of today’s policy makers and illustrate their consequences, not to guess how these policy preferences may change in the future.

**In the Stated Policies Scenario, energy demand rises by 1% per year to 2040. **Low-carbon sources, led by solar photovoltaics (PV), supply more than half of this growth, and natural gas, boosted by rising trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG), accounts for another third. Oil demand flattens out in the 2030s, and coal use edges lower. Some parts of the energy sector, led by electricity, undergo rapid transformations. Some countries, notably those with “net zero” aspirations, go far in reshaping all aspects of their supply and consumption. However, the momentum behind clean energy technologies is not enough to offset the effects of an expanding global economy and growing population. The rise in emissions slows but, with no peak before 2040, the world falls far short of shared sustainability goals.

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**The Sustainable Development Scenario maps out a way to meet sustainable energy goals in full, requiring rapid and widespread changes across all parts of the energy system.** This scenario charts a path fully aligned with the Paris Agreement by holding the rise in global temperatures to “well below 2°C … and pursuing efforts to limit [it] to 1.5°C”, and meets objectives related to universal energy access and cleaner air. The breadth of the world’s energy needs means that there are no simple or single solutions. Sharp emission cuts are achieved across the board thanks to multiple fuels and technologies providing efficient and cost-effective energy services for all.

Compare the new SDS 2019 to IPCC scenarios with a temperature rise in 2100

## Electricity moves to the heart of modern energy security

**Cost reductions in renewables and advances in digital technologies are opening huge opportunities for energy transitions, while creating some new energy security dilemmas. **Wind and solar PV provide more than half of the additional electricity generation to 2040 in the Stated Policies Scenario and almost all the growth in the Sustainable Development Scenario. Policy makers and regulators will have to move fast to keep up with the pace of technological change and the rising need for flexible operation of power systems. Issues such as the market design for storage, the interface between electric vehicles and the grid, and data privacy all have the potential to expose consumers to new risks.

Hour-to-hour adjustments required in power systems due to variability in demand, wind and solar

2018

2040

European Union

United States

China

India

50%

2040 numbers show that flexibility needs are set to increase rapidly in major markets

Each dot represents one hour in the year

Highest amount of hourly flexibility needed in the year

25%

0%

-25%

-50%

## The rise of the African energy consumer

**Africa – the special focus of ***WEO-2019 ***– is increasingly influential for global energy trends. **In the Stated Policies Scenario, the rise in Africa’s oil consumption to 2040 is larger than that of China, while the continent also sees a major expansion in natural gas use, prompted in part by a series of large discoveries made in recent years. The big open question for Africa remains the speed at which solar PV will grow. To date, a continent with the richest solar resources in the world has installed only around 5 gigawatts (GW) of solar PV, less than 1% of the global total. Solar PV would provide the cheapest source of electricity for many of the 600 million people across Africa without electricity access today.

**More than half a billion people are added to Africa’s urban population by 2040.** This is much higher than the growth seen in China’s urban population between 1990 and 2010, a period in which China’s production of materials such as steel and cement sky-rocketed.

2018 Growth to 2040 China 1.40 0.02 India 1.35315 0.24014 Africa 1.2873927 0.8081001

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Africa’s infrastructure development is not set to follow the same path, but the energy implications of African urbanisation trends are still profound. The expected growth in population in Africa’s hottest regions also means that up to half a billion additional people would need air conditioners or other cooling services by 2040. Our Africa analysis underlines that the planning, design and governance of the world’s growing cities, the industrial materials that are used in their construction, and the transport options that are available to their inhabitants are critical issues for the global outlook.

STEPS STEPS India 4.299634003 Africa 3.107855061 China 3.007134635 Middle East 2.756649136

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STEPS STEPS China 372.6607142 Middle East 271.9966194 Africa 156.1507989 India 134.0794872

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STEPS STEPS Africa Case China 3382 India 1749.675915 Africa 708.032391 672.516417 EU 1275.86841

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## An urgent need to take full advantage of the world’s “first fuel”

**The faltering momentum behind global energy efficiency improvements is cause for deep concern. **It comes against a backdrop of rising needs for heating, cooling, lighting, mobility and other energy services. Improvements in the energy intensity of the global economy (the amount of energy used per unit of economic activity) are slowing: the 1.2% improvement in 2018 was around half the average rate seen since 2010. This reflects a relative lack of new energy efficiency policies and of efforts to tighten existing measures.

Energy-intensive industry Light industry Services Residential Transport Other 2000-18 577.65 439.59 294.73 360.14 905.27 333.98 STEPS - 2019-40 230.27 635.14 323.16 299.90 701.29 338.76 SDS - 2019-40 -45.92560988 1.298582656 39.39842312 -450.6562183 -275.5683315 142.28954

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**A sharp pick-up in efficiency improvements is the single most important element that brings the world towards the Sustainable Development Scenario. **The pursuit of all economically viable opportunities for efficiency improvement can reduce global energy intensity by more than 3% each year. This includes efforts to promote the efficient design, use and recycling of materials such as steel, aluminium, cement and plastics. This increased “material efficiency” could be enough in itself to halt the growth in emissions from these sectors. Innovative approaches also include the use of digital tools to shift electricity demand to cheaper and less emissions-intensive hours of the day, reducing electricity bills for consumers and helping with system balancing, while also helping to reduce emissions.

## However fast overall energy demand grows, electricity grows faster

**Electricity use grows at more than double the pace of overall energy demand in the Stated Policies Scenario, confirming its place at the heart of modern economies**. Growth in electricity use in the Stated Policies Scenario is led by industrial motors (notably in China), followed by household appliances, cooling and electric vehicles. In the Sustainable Development Scenario, electricity is one of the few energy sources that sees growing consumption in 2040 – mainly due to electric vehicles – alongside the direct use of renewables, and hydrogen. The share of electricity in final consumption, less than half that of oil today, overtakes oil by 2040.

2000-2018 2000-2018 Oil 919 0 Electricity 0 822

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2018-2040 2018-2040 Oil 517.5163634 Electricity 1146.014919

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**Solar PV becomes the largest component of global installed capacity in the Stated Policies Scenario.** The expansion of generation from wind and solar PV helps renewables overtake coal in the power generation mix in the mid-2020s. By 2040, low-carbon sources provide more than half of total electricity generation. Wind and solar PV are the star performers, but hydropower (15% of total generation in 2040) and nuclear (8%) retain major shares.

Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Wind Solar PV Other renewables Hydro Battery storage 2000 1143.5177 798.7313182 447.693367 384.383 16.91706 0.80197401 49.15645105 787.6302246 2001 1161.67197 860.5726385 447.159126 387.261 23.9462 1.085438816 52.45803612 795.8486211 2002 1178.8859 956.3419468 444.650501 391.579 30.709265 1.443747706 56.30402385 809.7285481 2003 1201.63019 1035.158766 444.94814 392.281 38.64335 1.968545027 59.92221605 828.6397711 2004 1233.20949 1088.082685 439.741544 395.771 47.66188 3.063513421 62.13505065 850.3956961 2005 1283.36907 1130.574169 437.327332 398.696 58.382354 4.517860102 67.12036711 871.6429921 2006 1371.51034 1177.236731 433.825407 397.876 73.125712 6.033094816 74.3551537 896.5375341 2007 1438.47693 1218.267683 430.938321 399.862 91.49627 8.42817699 79.2109502 927.1672661 2008 1503.32384 1259.158735 430.706684 399.422 115.514508 14.63730771 82.69206029 959.5462851 0.688484 2009 1566.55635 1314.681276 432.233602 397.874 150.078298 22.7249442 87.64280587 993.289413 0.710866 2010 1628.60824 1374.494389 436.095338 401.407 180.77971 39.62400079 99.54497589 1025.883764 0.744171 2011 1712.63652 1422.363411 440.300849 393.946 219.833365 70.1569536 106.0538622 1058.483672 0.82905189 2012 1774.0645 1473.911522 438.961924 395.181 266.634563 99.82922433 115.738862 1092.348514 0.90097186 2013 1820.88438 1511.802354 435.474857 393.882 299.437508 136.3571208 124.238169 1136.446459 1.10030473 2014 1888.46494 1570.281281 440.121206 398.359 348.931031 176.6727639 131.8087405 1174.37252 1.5076802 2015 1961.35053 1612.119481 439.198919 405.295 416.453767 225.7030249 139.1378969 1208.71166 2.21242191 2016 2023.29182 1639.890972 447.015781 414.045 467.150378 301.113758 148.5444296 1244.560588 3.4455203 2017 2070.6868 1692.56929 449.503635 413.318 514.930329 398.6121222 155.9456879 1269.393402 5.174240053 2018 2078.6616 1744.784976 450.088488 419.295 565.604579 495.4644252 165.9846027 1289.555039 8.175883226 2019 2111.810389 1829.882062 432.2320955 417.884 623.8819372 606.6367779 175.5196322 1308.193126 15.70489473 2020 2125.790605 1875.598324 413.5270801 419.119 688.2511474 715.4824246 184.1297103 1338.065639 23.66204933 2021 2129.713747 1918.4766 397.6340518 420.439 746.9086459 825.069863 192.3564874 1359.149663 31.26188413 2022 2124.460972 1965.456937 380.1914594 417.276 804.0987238 942.8699589 200.5226135 1375.611435 39.52630753 2023 2114.408814 2005.637425 367.6741413 412.235 860.6161612 1069.673195 208.4330213 1398.263807 47.82624663 2024 2112.065295 2036.398122 354.1673294 415.737 921.4684905 1201.875096 216.0239715 1419.463273 55.49539803 2025 2106.150412 2069.661728 344.0043035 416.636 979.7880841 1308.635673 225.8938447 1447.781214 63.41724663 2026 2099.308834 2101.453416 331.6517697 419.985 1039.78821 1415.049738 235.9112033 1476.329828 72.16806633 2027 2097.066699 2133.619337 324.76143 425.427 1100.146096 1522.14741 246.1432596 1504.351348 81.91052563 2028 2099.699006 2177.622388 317.1787531 429.492 1161.53597 1631.418132 256.7035688 1532.135301 93.50919693 2029 2106.109823 2216.73533 306.8132457 431.315 1224.183025 1745.587035 267.6824756 1559.293578 107.392913 2030 2110.736483 2253.709979 298.0207642 436.386 1288.206862 1865.588416 279.247007 1585.583831 126.4081748 2031 2115.574106 2286.81918 293.0517088 442.4496 1351.564841 1984.675568 291.3308755 1610.901018 144.8827254 2032 2120.143409 2328.128024 288.2140674 443.3966 1414.578901 2104.198363 303.5632384 1635.368257 164.6444502 2033 2123.282724 2364.639445 284.5491458 451.2176 1476.038702 2225.38035 316.1440823 1659.403815 183.4224365 2034 2127.898714 2408.330394 277.0817548 455.5256 1536.222258 2349.337352 329.0321487 1683.102272 204.2806046 2035 2131.846399 2447.893222 271.125805 459.1106 1594.483453 2476.123451 342.2517627 1706.763372 225.0955996 2036 2136.639425 2484.542453 264.5921203 467.7216 1649.191113 2605.508917 355.7558294 1730.170479 244.8214485 2037 2142.449781 2525.107455 258.4066561 474.7446 1702.918551 2738.273106 369.7078732 1753.373901 266.7496861 2038 2150.451959 2571.849624 251.3824799 475.7966 1754.414244 2872.303779 383.7107183 1776.400079 288.8415251 2039 2162.97628 2606.669443 245.4966982 480.7466 1805.947939 3007.374689 397.976666 1799.358277 307.7971536 2040 2171.280983 2651.172228 239.1338545 482.4816 1856.270498 3142.022993 412.5079163 1822.312482 331.5171776

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**The speed at which battery costs decline is a critical variable for power markets as well as for electric cars.** India is the largest overall source of energy demand growth in this year’s Outlook, and we examine how a cost-effective combination of cheaper battery storage and solar PV could reshape the evolution of India’s power mix in the coming decades. Battery storage is well suited to provide the short-term flexibility that India needs, allowing a lunchtime peak in solar PV supply to meet an early evening peak in demand. In the Stated Policies Scenario, a major reduction in battery costs means that some 120 GW of storage are installed by 2040.

We also examine the possibility that battery costs could decline even faster – an extra 40% by 2040 – because of greater industrial economies of scale or a breakthrough in battery chemistry, for example. In this case, combined solar and battery storage plants would be a very compelling economic and environmental proposition, reducing sharply India’s projected investment in new coal-fired power plants.

## Offshore wind is gathering speed

**Cost reductions and experience gained in Europe’s North Sea are opening up a huge renewable resource.** Offshore wind has the technical potential to meet today’s electricity demand many times over. It is a variable source of generation, but offshore wind offers considerably higher capacity factors than solar PV and onshore wind thanks to ever-larger turbines that tap higher and more reliable wind speeds farther away from shore. There are further innovations on the horizon, including floating turbines that can open up new resources and markets.

Electricity demand Offshore wind potential European Union 2884 33844 United States 4010.79 8086.03 Japan 993.74 8080.32 China 6329.53 1993.23 India 1242.82 4753.26

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**Increasingly cost-competitive offshore wind projects are on course to attract a trillion dollars of investment to 2040. Europe’s success with the technology has sparked interest in China, the United States and elsewhere.** In the Sustainable Development Scenario, offshore wind rivals its onshore counterpart as the leading source of electricity generation in the European Union, paving the way to full decarbonisation of Europe’s power sector. Even higher deployment is possible if offshore wind becomes the foundation for the production of low-carbon hydrogen.

## What’s in the pipeline for gas?

**Gas grids provide a crucial mechanism to bring energy to consumers, typically delivering more energy than electricity networks and providing a valuable source of flexibility.** From an energy security perspective, parallel gas and electricity grids can be complementary assets. From an energy transitions perspective, natural gas can provide near-term benefits when replacing more polluting fuels. A key longer-term question is whether gas grids can deliver truly low- or zero-carbon energy sources, such as low-carbon hydrogen and biomethane.

Low-carbon hydrogen is enjoying a wave of interest, although for the moment it is relatively expensive to produce. Blending it into gas networks would offer a way to scale up supply technologies and reduce costs. Our new assessment of the sustainable potential for biomethane supply (produced from organic wastes and residues) suggests that it could cover some 20% of today’s gas demand. Recognition of the value of avoided CO2 and methane emissions would go a long way towards improving the cost competitiveness of both options.

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