World Energy Outlook 2018
The gold standard of energy analysis
World Energy Outlook 2018 examines future patterns of a changing global energy system at a time of increasing uncertainties and finds that major transformations are underway for the global energy sector. Across all regions and fuels, policy choices made by governments will determine the shape of the energy system of the future.
Scenarios
The World Energy Outlook (WEO) does not aim to forecast the future, but provides a way of exploring different possible futures, the levers that could bring them about, and the interactions that arise across a complex energy system.
If there is no change in policies from today, as in the Current Policies Scenario, this leads to increasing strains on almost all aspects of energy security and a major additional rise in energy-related CO2 emissions.
{
"chart":{
"type":"bubble"
},
"plotOptions":{
"line":{
"marker":{
"enabled":false
}
},
"bubble":{
"dataLabels":{
"enabled":true,
"format":"{series.name}"
},
"minSize":30,
"maxSize":100
}
},
"title":{
"text":"World primary energy demand and energy-related CO2 emissions by scenario"
},
"subtitle":{
"text":"Bubble size represents size of global economy"
},
"legend":{
"enabled":false
},
"yAxis":{
"title": {
"text":"Energy demand (Mtoe)"
}
},
"xAxis":{
"title":{
"text":"Energy-related CO2 emissions (Gt CO2)"
}
},
"credits":{
"enabled":false
},
"tooltip":{
"enabled":false
},
"series":[{
"name":"2040",
"data":[{"x":17.6,"y":13700,"z":533}],
"colorIndex":0,
"showInLegend":false
}, {
"name":"1990",
"data":[{"x":20.5,"y":8700,"z":100}],
"color":"#ccc",
"showInLegend":false
}, {
"name":"2017",
"data":[{"x":32.5,"y":13900,"z":245}],
"color":"#ccc",
"showInLegend":false
}, {
"name":"2040",
"data":[{"x":35.8,"y":17700,"z":533}],
"colorIndex":8,
"showInLegend":false
}, {
"name":"2040",
"data":[{"x":42.4,"y":19300,"z":533}],
"colorIndex":7,
"showInLegend":false
}, {
"type":"line",
"color":"#ccc",
"data":[{"x":32.5,"y":13900},{"x":20.5,"y":8700}]
}, {
"type":"line",
"colorIndex":8,
"data":[{"x":32.5,"y":13900},{"x":35.8,"y":17700}]
}, {
"type":"line",
"colorIndex":7,
"data":[{"x":32.5,"y":13900},{"x":42.4,"y":19300}]
}, {
"type":"line",
"colorIndex":0,
"data":[{"x":32.5,"y":13900},{"x":17.6,"y":13700}]
}]
}
Our New Policies Scenario broadens the scope to include policies and targets announced by governments. While the picture brightens, there is still no peak in global energy-related CO2 emissions.
The gap between this outcome and the Sustainable Development Scenario, in which accelerated clean energy transitions put the world on track to meet goals related to climate change, universal access and clean air, remains huge.
None of these potential pathways is preordained; all are possible. The actions taken by governments will be decisive in determining which path we follow.
The New Policies Scenario
Global energy demand grows by more than a quarter to 2040 in the New Policies Scenario, due to rising incomes and a global population growing by 1.7 billion people, mostly in urban areas of developing economies. The increase in energy demand would be about twice as large if it were not for continued improvements in energy efficiency, a powerful policy tool to address energy security and sustainability concerns.
Renewables Nuclear Industry Power Other Passenger cars Petrochemicals Other Power Other Renewables Nuclear Industry Power Other Passenger cars Petrochemicals Other Power Other Advanced Economies 482.4879462 -60.44911 Developing Economies 1106.697054 343.91272 Advanced Economies 28.69602512 13.42862 108.7717613 Developing Economies 378.5958054 372.58805 386.5455028 Advanced Economies -236.8691698 0 -216.5388106 Developing Economies 240.7396526 214.943869 287.7881189 Advanced Economies -335.860174 -19.46728548 Developing Economies 298.58279 115.5146683
{
"chart":{
"type":"column"
},
"plotOptions":{
"column":{
"stacking":"normal",
"borderWidth":0,
"dataLabels":{
"enabled":true,
"format":"{series.name}"
}
}
},
"legend":{
"enabled":false
},
"title":{
"text":"Change in total primary energy demand, 2017-40 in the NPS"
},
"tooltip":{
"valueSuffix":" Mtoe",
"valueDecimals":0
},
"yAxis":{
"title":{
"text":"Mtoe"
},
"reversedStacks":false
},
"xAxis":{
"type":"category",
"plotLines":[{
"value":1.5,
"width":1,
"color":"#ccc",
"dashStyle":"shortDash"
}, {
"value":3.5,
"width":1,
"color":"#ccc",
"dashStyle":"shortDash"
}, {
"value":5.5,
"width":1,
"color":"#ccc",
"dashStyle":"shortDash"
}, {
"value":0.5,
"width":0,
"label":{
"text":"Low-carbon",
"rotation":0,
"align":"center",
"y":25,
"style":{
"fontSize":16
}
}
}, {
"value":2.5,
"width":0,
"label":{
"text":"Gas",
"rotation":0,
"align":"center",
"y":25,
"style":{
"fontSize":16
}
}
}, {
"value":4.5,
"width":0,
"label":{
"text":"Oil",
"rotation":0,
"align":"center",
"y":25,
"style":{
"fontSize":16
}
}
}, {
"value":6.5,
"width":0,
"label":{
"text":"Coal",
"rotation":0,
"align":"center",
"y":25,
"style":{
"fontSize":16
}
}
}]
},
"series":[{
"colorIndex":0,
"dataLabels":{"enabled":false}
}, {
"colorIndex":8,
"dataLabels":{"enabled":false}
}, {
"colorIndex":4,
"dataLabels":{"enabled":false}
}, {
"colorIndex":5,
"dataLabels":{"enabled":false}
}, {
"colorIndex":3,
"dataLabels":{"enabled":false}
}, {
"colorIndex":6,
"dataLabels":{"enabled":false}
}, {
"colorIndex":7,
"dataLabels":{"enabled":false}
}, {
"colorIndex":9,
"dataLabels":{"enabled":false}
},{
"colorIndex":2,
"dataLabels":{"enabled":false}
}, {
"colorIndex":3,
"dataLabels":{"enabled":false}
},{
"colorIndex":0
}, {
"colorIndex":8
}, {
"colorIndex":4
}, {
"colorIndex":5
}, {
"colorIndex":3
}, {
"colorIndex":6
}, {
"colorIndex":7
}, {
"colorIndex":9
},{
"colorIndex":2
}, {
"colorIndex":3
}]
}
All the growth comes from developing economies, led by India. As recently as the year 2000, Europe and North America accounted for more than 40% of global energy demand and developing economies in Asia for around 20%. By 2040, this situation is completely reversed. Low-carbon technologies, led by renewables, and natural gas meet more than 80% of the increase in global demand. Electricity consumption grows twice as fast as overall energy demand.
The shale revolution continues to shake up oil and gas supply, enabling the United States to pull away from the rest of the field as the world’s largest oil and gas producer. By 2025, nearly one in five barrels of oil and one in four cubic metre of gas in the world come from the United States. This adds to the pressure on traditional oil and gas exporters that rely heavily on export revenues to support their national development.
The Sustainable Development Scenario
Our Sustainable Development Scenario provides an integrated strategy to achieve the key energy-related elements of the United Nations Sustainable Development agenda, including energy access, air quality and climate objectives. The emissions trajectory of the Sustainable Development Scenario is fully in line with achieving the long-term objectives of the Paris Agreement.
To deliver the outcomes of this scenario, the power sector proceeds further and faster with the deployment of low-emissions generation. Renewable energy technologies provide the main pathway to the provision of universal energy access. All economically viable avenues to improve efficiency are pursued, keeping overall demand in 2040 at today’s level.
Wind and solar PV generation
NPS Additional in SDS 2017 1.519468312 0 2040 8.52939127 5.60970117
{
"chart":{
"type":"column",
"height":300
},
"credits":{
"enabled":false
},
"legend":{
"enabled":false
},
"yAxis":{
"title":{
"text":"Thousand TWh"
},
"reversedStacks":false
},
"tooltip":{
"valueSuffix":" thousand TWh",
"valueDecimals":1
},
"plotOptions":{
"column":{
"stacking":"normal",
"borderWidth":0
}
},
"xAxis":{
"type":"category"
},
"series":[{
"colorIndex":0
}, {
"color":"rgba(0,176,80,0.2)"
}],
"responsive":{
"rules":[{
"condition":{
"maxWidth":500
},
"chartOptions":{
"chart":{
"height":300
}
}
}]
}
}
Electric car fleet
NPS Additional in SDS 2017 9.191989265 0 2040 304.3744812 628.930832
{
"chart":{
"type":"column",
"height":300
},
"legend":{
"enabled":false
},
"credits":{
"enabled":false
},
"yAxis":{
"title":{
"text":"Million cars"
},
"reversedStacks":false
},
"tooltip":{
"valueSuffix":" million cars",
"valueDecimals":1
},
"plotOptions":{
"column":{
"stacking":"normal",
"borderWidth":0
}
},
"xAxis":{
"type":"category"
},
"series":[{
"colorIndex":2
}, {
"color":"rgba(49, 134, 155,0.2)"
}],
"responsive":{
"rules":[{
"condition":{
"maxWidth":500
},
"chartOptions":{
"chart":{
"height":300
}
}
}]
}
}
Energy productivity
NPS Additional in SDS 2017 9.102521868 0 2040 15.58456526 4.544886359
{
"chart":{
"type":"column",
"height":300
},
"credits":{
"enabled":false
},
"legend":{
"enabled":false
},
"yAxis":{
"title":{
"text":"$ GDP/Mtoe"
},
"reversedStacks":false
},
"tooltip":{
"valueSuffix":" GDP/Mtoe",
"valuePrevis":"$",
"valueDecimals":1
},
"plotOptions":{
"column":{
"stacking":"normal",
"borderWidth":0
}
},
"xAxis":{
"type":"category"
},
"series":[{
"colorIndex":4
}, {
"color":"rgba(96, 73, 122,0.2)"
}],
"responsive":{
"rules":[{
"condition":{
"maxWidth":500
},
"chartOptions":{
"chart":{
"height":300
}
}
}]
}
}
CCUS deployment
NPS Additional in SDS 2017 0.022744307 0 2040 0.08302251 2.281122383
{
"chart":{
"type":"column",
"height":300
},
"credits":{
"enabled":false
},
"legend":{
"enabled":false
},
"yAxis":{
"title":{
"text":"Gt CO2 captured"
},
"reversedStacks":false
},
"tooltip":{
"valueSuffix":" Gt CO2 captured",
"valueDecimals":2
},
"plotOptions":{
"column":{
"stacking":"normal",
"borderWidth":0
}
},
"xAxis":{
"type":"category"
},
"series":[{
"colorIndex":9
}, {
"color":"rgba(234,152,84,0.2)"
}],
"responsive":{
"rules":[{
"condition":{
"maxWidth":500
},
"chartOptions":{
"chart":{
"height":300
}
}
}]
}
}
Share of non-fossil fuels
NPS Additional in SDS 2017 19.17411333 0 2040 25.83023954 14.4857984
{
"chart":{
"type":"column",
"height":300
},
"credits":{
"enabled":false
},
"legend":{
"enabled":false
},
"yAxis":{
"title":{
"text":""
},
"labels":{
"format":"{value}%"
},
"reversedStacks":false
},
"tooltip":{
"valueSuffix":"%",
"valueDecimals":1
},
"plotOptions":{
"column":{
"stacking":"normal",
"borderWidth":0
}
},
"xAxis":{
"type":"category"
},
"series":[{
"colorIndex":7
}, {
"color":"rgba(0192, 80, 77,0.2)"
}],
"responsive":{
"rules":[{
"condition":{
"maxWidth":500
},
"chartOptions":{
"chart":{
"height":300
}
}
}]
}
}
Electrification of end-uses grows strongly, but so too does the direct use of renewables – bioenergy, solar and geothermal heat – to provide heat and mobility. The share of renewables in the power mix rises from one-quarter today to two-thirds in 2040; in the provision of heat it rises from 10% today to 25% and in transport it rises from 3.5% today to 19% (including both direct use and indirect use, e.g. renewables-based electricity).
The World Energy Model
Since 1993, the IEA has provided medium to long-term energy projections using the World Energy Model (WEM) – a large-scale simulation model designed to replicate how energy markets function. The WEM is the principal tool used to generate detailed sector-by-sector and region-by-region projections for the WEO scenarios.