World Energy Outlook 2018
The gold standard of energy analysis
World Energy Outlook 2018 examines future patterns of a changing global energy system at a time of increasing uncertainties and finds that major transformations are underway for the global energy sector. Across all regions and fuels, policy choices made by governments will determine the shape of the energy system of the future.
In this section
Oil
After the fallout from the 2014 oil price crash, the continued expansion of tight oil production in the United States and the prospect of major structural changes in oil consumption underpinned a view that the oil price was set to stay low for a very long time.
The reality has been different. On the supply side, while tight oil has proved remarkably resilient, geopolitical events, the slump in Venezuelan output, and decisions by major exporters have also weighed on production prospects. Meanwhile, on the demand side, lower prices have pushed up oil consumption. The oil price rose above $80/barrel in September 2018 for the first time since 2014, although it has come down since.
Where do we go from here? The forces of change in oil markets remain strong. A maturing shale sector is now poised to become profitable; the cost of new upstream projects has come down; and sales of electric cars continue to break records. But elements of continuity are also formidable, and another boom and bust commodity price cycle cannot be ruled out. Volatility may be the new name of the game.
Key Trends
There is a major shift in the geography of oil demand in the NPS. Demand in developing economies grows by 18 mb/d to 2040 while demand in advanced economies drops by nearly 10 mb/d. There is also 3 mb/d growth in oil use in international aviation and shipping.
Oil use in cars peaks in the mid-2020s. Some 300 million electric cars on the road avoid 3.3 mb/d oil demand in 2040. Improvements in the efficiency of the non-electric car fleet are even more important to stemming demand growth: these avoid over 9 mb/d of oil demand in 2040.
This pace of change is not matched elsewhere. Oil demand for trucks grows by 4 mb/d and oil use in petrochemicals sees the largest growth of any sector at 5 mb/d.
Advanced economies Developing economies International bunkers Net change Power -0.899290263 -1.282787685 0 -2.182077948 Buildings -1.770745543 0.647409314 0 -1.123336229 Other -0.350153268 0.579551635 0 0.229398366 Cars -5.023821669 5.401423666 0 0.377601997 Industry 0.192303545 0.519326483 0 0.711630028 Shipping -0.05952787 0.397994507 1.07396975 1.412436387 Aviation 0.156421945 0.904331273 2.324690886 3.385444104 Trucks -0.801349386 4.660396675 0 3.859047289 Petrochemicals -0.958655399 5.76927066 0 4.810615261
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The diverging sectoral oil demand outlook underpins a major shift in the composition of oil product demand towards lighter products. This move is amplified in the SDS.
Adapting to dramatic increases in the demand for lighter products would represent an unprecedented challenge for refiners, and would send ripples through the wider energy system.
NPS SDS Gasoline -0.288373631 -12.5202247 Diesel 2.816726914 -9.378658129 Fuel oil -0.669833083 -3.233554695 Kerosene 3.006372536 -1.446190793 LPG/ethane 3.850600688 1.567750105 Naphtha 3.475811713 2.669919289
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The United States provides nearly 75% of the increase in global oil production to 2025 in the NPS.
After 2025, members of OPEC are central to meeting oil demand growth. US tight oil reaches 9.2 mb/d in the mid-2020s before declining slowly. But tight oil increases elsewhere, most notably in Argentina.
OPEC Non-OPEC Share of OPEC at end of interval (right axis) 2000-05 4.2672 2.7529 43.67429291 2005-10 -0.135 1.3896 42.85620165 2010-15 3.0526 5.5857 42.15118267 2015-20 -0.8426 5.2893 39.33758197 2020-25 2.1608 1.1964 40.17839987 2025-30 2.1439 -0.434 41.61190182 2030-35 1.6909 -1.2352 43.08248243 2035-40 2.3116 -1.0335 44.78611294
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The level of conventional crude oil resources approved for development in recent years is in line with the needs of the SDS but is only half of the level needed to meet demand growth in the NPS.
If these approvals do not pick up sharply from today’s levels, US tight oil production would need to triple from today’s level to over 15 mb/d by 2025 to satisfy demand in the NPS. With a sufficiently large resource base, this could be possible. But it would require levels of capital investment that would far surpass the previous peaks in 2014.
Conventional crude Tight oil NGLs EHOB Other NPS demand SDS demand 2010 67.39546 0.490132108 12.67537 2.30988 0.608557892 83.4794 83.4794 2011 66.96874 0.979459085 13.32647 2.4956 0.671230915 84.4415 84.4415 2012 67.54916 1.767997979 13.95269 2.72953 0.775022021 86.7744 86.7744 2013 66.32233 2.669934444 14.3392 2.97781 0.915725556 87.225 87.225 2014 66.43634 3.665007228 15.11699 3.19756 1.011602772 89.4275 89.4275 2015 67.49057 4.340495898 15.75412 3.40961 1.122804102 92.1176 92.1176 2016 67.65022 4.011885529 16.17764 3.4267 1.144754471 92.4112 92.4112 2017 66.84832 4.379430728 16.68718 3.67941 1.186559272 92.7809 92.7809 2018 61.07551 3.703155682 14.57034413 3.3028 1.127231308 93.9306 93.4789 2019 55.92575 2.87269555 13.07782886 3.20268 1.070869743 95.3693 94.3667 2020 51.31215 2.45338485 11.88997076 3.1436 1.017326256 96.5644 94.7734 2021 47.16394 2.174269591 10.90404617 3.09923 0.966459943 97.2404 94.3273 2022 43.42269 1.969473168 10.04623904 3.05554 0.918136946 97.9373 93.8075 2023 40.03925 1.813427205 9.248129484 3.01254 0.872230098 98.5865 93.1486 2024 36.7758 1.690580488 8.542629546 2.9724 0.828618593 99.2544 92.4241 2025 33.81732 1.586904385 7.900965138 2.9329 0.787187664 99.9216 91.5649 2026 31.11591 1.495508624 7.313325805 2.89403 0.747828281 100.406 90.4873 2027 28.56067 1.413727648 6.774579257 2.85577 0.710436867 100.854 89.2814 2028 26.23853 1.339883366 6.280125151 2.80199 0.674915023 101.179 87.8981 2029 24.1254 1.272772806 5.825867159 2.74943 0.641169272 101.505 86.4437 2030 22.20023 1.211483869 5.408127229 2.69807 0.609110808 101.631 84.7294 2031 20.34805 1.155280905 5.023612247 2.6479 0.578655268 101.717 82.7855 2032 18.63821 1.103560362 4.669344226 2.59394 0.549722505 101.739 80.7768 2033 17.083473 1.055819715 4.342676543 2.53846 0.522236379 101.862 78.8766 2034 15.668505 1.011635285 4.041192488 2.48152 0.49612456 101.901 76.9536 2035 14.379775 0.968765872 3.762735993 2.42587 0.471318332 102.087 75.2074 2036 13.149761 0.92635593 3.505344383 2.37148 0.447752416 102.263 73.5443 2037 12.032648 0.88501907 3.26724504 2.3183 0.425364795 102.572 72.0396 2038 11.017425 0.843238762 3.046839847 2.26633 0.404096555 102.846 70.6217 2039 10.094239 0.800472059 2.84267283 2.21553 0.383891727 103.086 69.2535 2040 9.2541 0.754741869 2.653419648 2.16587 0.364697141 103.365 67.9689
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Natural Gas
Surging growth in the global gas trade – underpinned by the shale revolution in the United States and the rise of liquefied natural gas (LNG) – continues to accelerate the transformation of global gas markets. Although talk of a global gas market similar to that of oil is premature, LNG trade has expanded substantially in volume since 2010.
As a result, gas is more accessible today to a variety of market players, and is more responsive to short-term changes in supply and demand across regions. In recent years, policy efforts to combat air pollution have been a key driver of natural gas demand growth in emerging economies in Asia.
Key Trends
Unlike other fossil fuels, natural gas continues to make inroads in almost all advanced economies.
In the United States, ample availability of gas at affordable prices fosters gas demand growth. In Korea, gas demand increases as the use of nuclear and coal in the power mix declines.
In the NPS, China soon becomes the world’s largest gas-importing country, with net imports approaching the level of the EU by 2040.
China today is also on the verge of surpassing Japan as the largest LNG importer.
China Other Developing Asia European Union Japan and Korea 2017 106.223 349.427 162.465 2018 123.372 343.72 156.715 2019 142.105 352.853 150.903 2020 161.976 0.4507 362.326 146.955 2021 181.504 16.9343 372.43 145.223 2022 192.583 34.3205 381.825 143.753 2023 208.041 44.4929 395.923 141.78 2024 227.328 56.2171 402.385 142.091 2025 243.446 65.5113 408.974 144.833 2026 257.427 76.8285 410.078 147.108 2027 270.336 87.7415 409.837 146.77 2028 282.264 98.897 406.454 148.274 2029 290.438 109.75483 407.582 149.793 2030 297.862 120.83651 405.804 150.306 2031 305.467 132.93651 400.345 151.08 2032 314.366 145.89772 396.214 152.092 2033 322.051 158.844 392.981 153.266 2034 329.652 172.1054 389.496 155.215 2035 338.692 186.7511 386.105 157.241 2036 347.229 202.0511 383.495 159.025 2037 354.687 215.789 382.51 159.871 2038 361.258 230.2796 378.865 161.406 2039 366.752 243.7312 376.579 164.161 2040 369.473 259.9273 373.016 166.053
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Although the region is often dubbed “emerging Asia” as a whole, it is difficult to generalise about its gas demand.
Gas has been a niche fuel in some markets (such as India) while it is well established in some others (parts of Southeast Asia, Pakistan and Bangladesh).
Power Industry Buildings Transport China 2.990800671 5.417917886 10.40810839 6.30580575 India 4.497393269 12.06296147 0.759357358 2.819603615 Southeast Asia 33.70339444 20.84638775 0.283045313 2.183331608 Pakistan and Bangladesh 59.34409602 44.57224129 17.58274648 12.92467152
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Gas demand grows in most parts of the world in the NPS, but there are strong regional variations in the SDS.
While gas use comes under pressure from the expansion of renewables and from strong energy efficiency policies in many advanced economies, emerging Asia remains a key source of demand growth to 2040.
China India Southeast Asia Other developing Asia Rest of world New Policies Scenario 460.356405 113.4903477 118.6066791 96.7827304 857.7380263 Sustainable Development Scenario 448.834066 187.9304043 83.42609921 49.4837583 -337.3352866
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The pickup in new LNG project approvals in the second half of 2018 suggests that the risk of an abrupt tightening in gas markets around the mid-2020s may be easing.
However a steady flow of additional projects would still be required to meet demand in the NPS.
Existing Approved for investment NPS 2010 350.722 0 2011 357.897 0 2012 362.253 0 2013 374.021 0 2014 389.954 0 2015 400.691 0 2016 456.452 0 2017 480.126 0 480.126 2018 480.126 35.088 494.659 2019 480.126 88.5428 506.878 2020 480.126 126.2556 525.974 2021 480.126 128.826 564.858 2022 480.126 131.886 594.145 2023 480.126 137.19 624.26 2024 478.1676 158.474 644.302 2025 469.4636 158.474 658.149 2026 465.1116 158.474 685.471 2027 465.1116 158.474 706.896 2028 450.6548 158.474 718.187 2029 435.7628 158.474 727.057 2030 434.1308 158.474 740.859 2031 421.6868 158.474 749.279 2032 413.7988 158.474 754.788 2033 398.8388 158.474 756.468 2034 390.2708 158.474 773.507 2035 378.7108 158.474 787.182 2036 374.3588 158.474 815.285 2037 360.4868 158.474 836.009 2038 360.4868 158.474 859.73 2039 342.1268 158.474 878.109 2040 320.6116 158.474 889.288
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Coal
While both coal demand and prices declined after 2014, prices started to rebound in 2016 and coal demand made a comeback in 2017.
In Europe and North America, coal demand remains under pressure due to low electricity demand growth, strong uptake of renewables-based capacity and, in the United States, the availability of inexpensive natural gas. Nonetheless, elsewhere coal demand could be more resilient than some expect, especially among developing economies in Asia.
Key Trends
In the NPS, falling consumption in China, European Union and United States is balanced by rising demand in India and Southeast Asia.
China India Other developing economies Advanced economies 2000-17 1797.818045 363.4014023 214.9613858 -316.3561692 NPS -357.764003 668.4980106 280.8337901 -507.6106564 SDS -1702.365761 -35.30243514 -310.4553684 -1027.472694
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In the NPS, the share of coal in global primary energy demand declines from 27% today to 22% in 2040, falling behind gas in the late 2020s.
In the SDS, coal consumption decreases steeply by 3.6% per year and coal’s share in primary energy falls below 12% by 2040.
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables 2017 3750.128959 4435.308785 3107.0984 687.66847 1991.501562 NPS 3808.898958 4894.1982 4435.843918 971.13208 3604.614062 SDS 1597.211579 3155.920589 3432.531236 1292.71632 4236.633692
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Many coal exporters have emerged leaner and fitter from the recent coal market downturn, and competition promises to be strong in the uncertain import demand environment of the NPS, in which overall coal trade remains largely flat.
Australia, the world’s largest exporter continues to be well positioned while Indonesian exports decline in the NPS due to increasing domestic coal demand in power generation. The fundamentals suggest that Russia has the potential to expand market share; it becomes the second-largest coal exporter in our projections, overtaking Indonesia by the mid-2030s.
Australia Russia Indonesia South Africa Colombia Other 1990 96.073 6.1986 3.28323 48.0339 12.6226 142.79167 1995 126.488 5.73082 26.1194 57.2643 17.0502 142.83828 2000 173.465 13.5426 47.7795 65.78 33.0274 136.9405 2005 215.68 60.0071 108.719 66.3251 49.7919 106.5949 2010 271.923 100.974 220.678 62.0694 64.4421 123.1305 2017 349.549 144.452 308.124 67.8999 78.8661 153.309 2025 366.238 147.249 255.402 70.8118 70.9191 133.2401 2030 377.848 158.818 193.754 81.5399 71.009 123.8011 2035 398.652 177.931 181.947 78.7965 71.5779 125.6756 2040 428.461 188.965 181.866 89.1408 70.7677 129.4895
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Coal prices have soared since early 2016 due to strong import demand and efforts to limit and restructure supply in China. Despite the resulting boost in profits for mining companies, investment in coal mining remains subdued, particularly among export-oriented companies. The New Policies Scenario implies $1 trillion of investment to offset decreasing production from existing mines and to build new coal infrastructure, the majority of which is in China and India.
Existing mines Existing mines: brownfield expansion New mines: greenfield investment 2015 5263.14 0 0 2016 4935.03 0 0 2017 5094.62 0 0 2018 5014.45 83.2748 100.133 2019 4906.65 134.612 168.766 2020 4753.63 201.6 252.312 2021 4686.37 238.648 296.172 2022 4625.67 264.842 326.153 2023 4556.01 299.326 361.066 2024 4499.39 331.558 400.434 2025 4308.15 423.242 500.632 2026 4163.34 496.986 577.792 2027 3948.5 604.361 681.11 2028 3608.83 769.924 837.125 2029 3225.88 963.216 1005.8 2030 2940.3 1112.39 1140.56 2031 2695.39 1248.56 1254.7 2032 2350.78 1439.48 1406.9 2033 2079.41 1584.07 1542.78 2034 1775.01 1744.77 1692.63 2035 1443.06 1944.23 1821.89 2036 1099.93 2149.51 1967.86 2037 960.226 2235.85 2027.72 2038 765.8 2318.3 2145.83 2039 730.542 2333.32 2197.47 2040 620.408 2413.97 2262.64
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Renewables
Renewables have seen strong growth in recent years, with the power sector leading the way, and breaking records for levels of investment and deployment. But the uptake of renewables has been slower in industry, buildings and transport. Some renewable energy technologies such as solar PV and onshore wind are approaching competitiveness; others such as offshore wind are balancing between needing support and being competitive, while technologies such as tidal and wave energy still need support.
Key Trends
In the New Policies Scenario, renewables make up more than 60% of gross capacity additions to 2040 in most regions, reaching half of global power generation capacity by 2035. Solar PV is one of the fastest growing technologies, and is projected to become the second-largest installed capacity, with installed capacity overtaking wind in the next few years, hydropower within 15 years and coal before 2040.
China and India drive the global growth in solar PV; they are responsible for well over half of global solar PV capacity additions. Wind power deployment also grows rapidly, reaching 14% of global capacity by 2040, or around 1 700 GW. In terms of generation, electricity output from hydro remains the largest source of renewables-based generation.
Wind Solar PV Bioenergy Hydro Other Middle East 8.879551313 21.67318699 0.905767367 1.637034509 3.81851904 Southeast Asia 4.762089884 17.83340576 3.355803971 14.91638299 2.445073522 Africa 7.978020778 28.60698535 1.559094591 13.40204694 4.785083087 India 17.37195651 37.6881164 1.100782097 5.452263531 0.438909509 United States 23.74161039 30.47734821 2.82287165 4.260550224 1.742677491 World 20.41347076 30.28154793 2.578164428 8.729734162 1.6648903 Japan 7.728698067 41.22914864 3.436974522 8.467552396 3.914525668 Central and South America 17.04823384 15.39303777 4.96371091 27.96434181 1.604476526 Korea 23.23500226 39.62796996 2.525530493 1.244115888 1.077470536 China 25.69420091 39.94428775 2.158626326 8.517654258 0.853566561 European Union 39.54078195 27.52499024 5.067613497 5.404309474 2.441095643
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Key drivers of the rise in renewables-based electricity include policy support and technology cost reductions. Stable support policy frameworks help drive down costs, in turn providing for increasing policy support while maintaining energy affordability. As a result by 2040, the global average support per unit of output for new solar PV projects declines almost 90%, and for new wind power projects it declines by almost 70%.
Wind onshore Wind offshore Bioenergy Solar PV Concentrating solar power Other 2007 10.88743818 0.374491935 10.28542558 3.049585098 0.166432905 1.666688465 2008 9.71805576 0.380537747 10.23054084 5.683217035 0.206793809 1.36124186 2009 16.99302903 0.62191964 13.57379032 10.47796288 0.24487399 1.935581064 2010 18.66039356 0.918163245 15.78897325 15.4353084 0.516987317 1.847182132 2011 21.62031205 1.354153471 16.29259625 27.25568282 0.850609038 1.899075554 2012 25.86605922 1.813228018 17.609878 36.46317592 1.425782203 2.015024786 2013 28.32490583 2.764478982 19.88313672 46.28101321 1.723207761 1.972571599 2014 32.95002339 3.730165831 22.02510606 53.63749522 2.021217418 1.960450883 2015 39.05079853 1.998814511 19.75270336 53.55871861 1.9532429 2.13477345 2016 43.89511685 2.246770869 22.30048451 67.72980025 1.8877297 2.783973359 2017 44.35847407 2.270487801 20.72576813 71.47230103 1.707778996 2.349122697 2018 37.39298704 6.968413745 23.04555862 74.89773978 2.156526338 4.190973741 2019 40.4202385 9.219164868 25.74376249 81.05102162 2.579458363 4.758383386 2020 42.3206919 10.87101935 27.45431882 88.4796708 2.7827903 4.73314338 2021 44.9339045 12.55816001 29.03176598 93.209854 3.1532866 4.934160563 2022 47.0877491 14.89330522 30.25367185 98.4774562 3.4013708 5.404680549 2023 49.0226201 16.91857989 31.53783596 103.5159816 3.6762235 5.799702947 2024 51.2164976 19.8915312 33.15753028 103.7920363 4.42748688 6.292028617 2025 53.4358993 22.89318344 34.69144966 104.2174469 5.1191945 6.932025046 2026 55.5349335 25.89758523 36.07472583 104.8250294 5.84494077 7.342401115 2027 57.897145 29.01649267 37.62355372 105.9927048 6.6213733 7.983533887 2028 60.761776 32.41490225 39.19404887 107.2458766 7.4788311 8.660808726 2029 64.038464 36.20110109 40.44748721 108.7068256 8.3248883 9.160037983 2030 67.2941231 40.20541695 40.86033718 109.5485348 9.209314 10.40332564 2031 68.8950206 43.03335725 42.77463307 106.3867645 10.1729887 11.15402205 2032 70.1272733 45.26480397 44.2530169 103.1742783 11.1184849 11.75184782 2033 71.26958944 47.32501588 45.45251096 103.0013555 12.0680589 12.54973259 2034 71.73301746 48.82423058 46.98560257 102.6206978 12.9334957 13.35015456 2035 73.3722367 50.87079544 48.09532924 104.4104848 13.6491535 14.35962193 2036 70.8431587 50.19925247 46.68669622 100.4463221 13.67032102 15.34168961 2037 68.85916185 52.09445099 48.95966062 92.35019374 14.50831496 16.16320088 2038 66.875165 53.98964951 51.23262502 84.2540654 15.3463089 16.98471214 2039 66.764094 53.70886182 52.35196228 80.4282942 16.1364464 17.82309946 2040 65.923829 53.14986397 52.4777772 77.8203401 15.8660714 17.67556087
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In the NPS, road vehicles powered by renewables – cars, trucks, buses and two/three wheelers – more than double their share in road transport energy use to 9%, and they account for almost 15% of the total distance driven in 2040.
Renewable electricity represents one fifth of the direct and indirect renewable energy used in road transport in 2040, but accounts for more than a third of kilometres travelled on renewables thanks to the higher efficiency of electric engines.
Biofuels Renewable-based electricity Share in transport (right axis) 2010 56.127464 4.788586759 2.593402291 2011 59.065707 5.083947897 2.68745155 2012 66.024253 5.401007971 2.948858593 2013 71.336933 5.972797367 3.102297068 2014 74.725982 6.286956654 3.19274116 2015 78.506576 6.622900061 3.257096288 2016 81.826567 7.318564022 3.33906075 2017 86.08174608 7.870635776 3.459487166 2018 91.8245632 8.767369484 3.640186733 2019 97.59248189 9.654760857 3.813804429 2020 102.5066908 10.54268337 3.967354926 2021 106.7372874 11.57495048 4.095207832 2022 111.4754061 12.80929145 4.244237039 2023 117.4294454 14.1958472 4.430216265 2024 123.9174262 15.83277728 4.630658548 2025 130.2922619 17.75368845 4.83297236 2026 136.7742716 19.89334996 5.049601542 2027 143.209142 22.23156242 5.269787685 2028 149.5439632 24.83707202 5.495285264 2029 155.5855132 27.71092813 5.718100616 2030 160.9823161 30.97634975 5.941042902 2031 166.6713149 34.38167169 6.173016688 2032 171.9678328 37.83882542 6.396464502 2033 177.5622062 41.3714409 6.617935421 2034 182.8814108 44.87554726 6.833502801 2035 188.4539818 48.57091873 7.047341008 2036 194.2892229 52.4785305 7.270101067 2037 200.4488853 56.50885764 7.496987677 2038 206.781306 60.63932587 7.725238546 2039 213.1599425 64.82276745 7.950897149 2040 219.5391431 69.08840086 8.175246336
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Concerns have been raised about the sustainability of biofuels in some countries: the feedstocks required can compete with food production for agricultural land and there can be a large increase in CO2 emission intensity associated with land clearing and cultivation. As a result, there is increased interest in advanced biofuels, which can avoid these concerns.
We estimate that today there are around 10 billion tonnes of lignocellulosic “sustainable” feedstock that could be used for biofuels production worldwide, much larger than the projected biofuel needs in our scenarios.
Potential sustainable feedstock Increment in SDS Biofuels in NPS 2017 9.849909389 0 0 2025 8.628128823 0.360138194 0.72885655 2030 8.150822278 0.558922853 0.871468184 2035 7.926727693 0.522424013 0.989511035 2040 7.535992301 0.422580008 1.12580801
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Energy efficiency
Energy efficiency is one of the cornerstones of any strategy to guarantee sustainable and inclusive economic growth. It remains one of the most cost-effective ways to enhance security of energy supply, to boost competitiveness and welfare, and to reduce the environmental footprint of the energy system. Not only can the growth of carbon emissions be tempered by the more efficient use of energy but energy efficiency can also improve local pollution and contribute to reducing the millions of air-pollution related premature deaths each year, and keep consumers energy bills in check.
Key Trends
The United Nations Agenda for Sustainable Development (2030 Agenda) includes targets to improve energy efficiency (Sustainable Development Goal 7.3). Global energy intensity, defined as the ratio of primary energy supply to GDP, is the indicator used to track progress on global energy efficiency.
The original target was an annual reduction of 2.6% although the world has fallen short of this goal since it was announced: the annual reduction in 2017 was only 1.7%. This shortfall means that the required rate of intensity improvement has risen to 2.7% for the remaining years to 2030.
1990-2010 2010-2017 2017-2030 Additional change in SDS 2016-2017 World -1.369575745 -2.205016133 -2.441769359 -1.170150979 -1.691906671 North America -1.638697544 -2.314259623 -1.883901651 -0.974048795 -2.548548508 Central and South America -0.427096428 -0.026667276 -1.486026457 -0.979515723 1.202614803 Africa -0.917170256 -0.415462513 -2.116452841 -3.375456463 -0.742842795 Middle East 1.301714392 -0.516609837 -1.348378228 -1.030807144 0.571354477 Europe -1.750865694 -2.518262472 -2.524793699 -0.567273959 -0.802450028 Eurasia -1.928451529 -0.740652497 -1.914889205 -0.688089712 1.198190743 Asia Pacific -1.426575559 -3.265872118 -3.100038045 -1.182576182 -2.798769224
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Improvements in fuel efficiency of the global car fleet are the single largest contributor to moderating oil demand growth in cars in the NPS. These measures avoid around 9 mb/d of oil demand in 2040.
Not all these savings are dependent on technological advances: for example, bringing the fuel efficiency of the global car fleet in line with that of cars in the European Union today (7.3 litres/100 km) would reduce global oil consumption by almost 6 mb/d.
In advanced economies, new sources of electricity demand growth such as digitalization and electrification of heat and mobility have been outpaced by savings from energy efficiency. In the absence of energy efficiency improvements, electricity demand in advanced economies would have grown at 1.6% per year since 2010, instead of 0.3%.
Energy efficiency measures adopted since 2000 saved almost 1 800 TWh in 2017 or the equivalent of around 20% of overall current electricity use.
Observed Without energy efficiency Without additional electrification since 2000 2000 8405.931161 8405.931161 8405.931161 2001 8445.599694 8488.662587 8426.538547 2002 8639.902586 8741.147587 8583.499753 2003 8778.422715 8938.190677 8719.564708 2004 8981.42207 9272.072226 8904.286838 2005 9183.870331 9631.955403 9077.709189 2006 9286.621621 9915.732179 9111.908237 2007 9497.106946 10244.59528 9281.175285 2008 9479.583722 10237.24589 9271.58972 2009 9112.379204 10000.19868 8830.247274 2010 9513.508868 10313.58991 9210.559061 2011 9485.5193 10568.09139 9143.634115 2012 9463.769866 10544.73768 9141.380805 2013 9513.327953 10672.70609 9170.090562 2014 9459.260443 10857.20176 9100.729425 2015 9482.930485 11013.31639 9153.08946 2016 9615.570075 11210.28945 9270.10933 2017 9687.07667 11450.05288 9340.764102
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