More efforts needed
In 2018, renewable electricity generation rose 7%, with wind and solar PV technologies together accounting for 60% of this increase. Although the share of renewables in global electricity generation reached 26% in 2018, renewable power as a whole still needs to expand significantly to meet the SDS share of half of generation by 2030. This requires the rate of annual capacity additions to accelerate; however, renewable capacity growth stalled in 2018 for the first time since 2001.
Share of renewables in power generation
Low carbon Renewables
2000 35.35182448 18.36559433
2001 35.09151663 17.90618585
2002 34.51305531 17.8274563
2003 33.32882749 17.41873988
2004 33.64636133 17.84474488
2005 33.3162649 18.00412933
2006 33.02102044 18.14984674
2007 31.78039063 17.89809635
2008 32.28277547 18.58346722
2009 32.93931351 19.36389966
2010 32.6194428 19.55360993
2011 31.80048507 19.90599511
2012 31.97261555 20.87056328
2013 32.52627338 21.66194752
2014 33.25410756 22.34519841
2015 33.66798662 22.80904278
2016 34.51647783 23.83251351
2017 35.00085233 24.44460533
2018 35.70686333 25.23796509
2025 49.3756944 37.82935019
2030 62.71312351 48.62234959
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Back to Power sector | TCEP overview 🕐 Last updated Friday, May 24, 2019
Tracking progress
Generation by technology
Of all energy sources in the electricity sector, renewables had the highest rate of generation growth in 2018. Renewables-based electricity generation increased by 7% (almost 450 TWh) – equivalent to Brazil’s entire electricity demand, and faster than the 6% average annual growth since 2010.
Solar PV, hydropower and wind each accounted for less than one third of 2018 total electricity generation growth, with bioenergy representing most of the rest. Taken together, renewables fuelled almost 45% of the world's increase in electricity generation, and they now account for almost 26% of global electricity output, second after coal.
Renewable power overall needs to sustain annual growth of 7% over 2018-30 to meet the SDS level. This will require faster deployment of all renewable technologies including hydropower, which represented 65% of global renewable generation in 2018, but on the contrary, the rate of annual renewable capacity additions did not rise last year.
Solar PV is still on track with the SDS, with generation increasing by over 30% in 2018 thanks to continuous policy support and cost reductions. In addition, the tracking status for bioenergy was upgraded from 'needs improvement' to 'on track'; several policy and market developments in China contributed significantly to this status change.
Renewable power generation by technology
Ocean CSP Geothermal Bioenergy Solar PV Offshore wind Onshore wind Hydropower 2000 0.55 0.53 51.99 132.13 0.99 0.13 31.22 2618.25 2001 0.52 0.57 51.57 132.70 1.32 0.20 38.25 2561.13 2002 0.53 0.57 52.29 145.99 1.58 0.38 52.47 2628.80 2003 0.53 0.55 54.09 156.98 2.02 1.35 62.88 2641.58 2004 0.51 0.59 56.50 172.10 2.68 2.01 82.42 2812.15 2005 0.52 0.60 58.28 192.20 3.91 2.52 101.40 2934.78 2006 0.49 0.55 59.61 206.15 5.51 3.09 129.97 3044.65 2007 0.50 0.69 62.29 225.46 7.45 4.15 166.69 3083.31 2008 0.49 0.90 64.92 244.15 11.89 5.41 215.64 3213.23 2009 0.49 0.92 67.04 266.01 20.03 4.97 272.47 3267.48 2010 0.51 1.65 68.12 310.40 32.19 7.71 333.69 3445.32 2011 0.51 2.86 69.23 328.24 63.17 11.71 424.30 3514.00 2012 0.50 4.75 70.22 356.41 99.02 14.79 509.33 3677.82 2013 0.93 5.87 71.64 389.23 139.45 20.72 625.90 3809.02 2014 1.00 8.42 77.44 423.82 190.17 24.63 693.71 3905.90 2015 1.01 9.61 80.47 451.26 250.23 38.93 799.61 3904.66 2016 1.03 10.47 81.66 498.55 328.04 41.49 916.22 4061.47 2017 1.10 11.03 87.48 531.43 434.62 54.60 1030.25 4109.44 2018 1.14 11.86 92.71 592.19 570.78 65.79 1149.36 4243.51 2019 1.15 17.96 93.00 637.38 754.94 81.42 1268.55 4274.23 2020 1.16 20.68 97.12 676.48 911.60 98.35 1378.32 4364.40 2021 1.20 23.27 101.46 708.28 1079.74 115.68 1492.28 4440.00 2022 1.22 28.26 106.14 737.33 1262.83 140.71 1604.83 4505.38 2023 1.24 30.69 110.60 764.14 1459.76 173.45 1708.14 4576.45 2025 3.95 53.80 162.15 921.81 1939.55 307.48 2399.47 5011.70 2030 14.95 183.83 282.04 1168.21 3267.95 606.35 3748.75 5722.36
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Recommended actions
Stable and predictable renewable policies
For all renewable power technologies, the long-term stability of targets and policies is essential to ensure investor confidence and continued growth. At the same time, policies need to continuously adapt to changing market conditions to achieve greater cost-competitiveness and improve integration of renewables into the system.
Policy shift to competitive auctions
Different policy instruments have been used to support renewable electricity deployment through different stages of technological maturity. Options include administratively set feed-in tariffs or premiums, renewable portfolio standards, quotas and tradeable green certificate schemes, net metering, tax rebates and capital grants. Some of these instruments have been introduced in parallel.
Recently, auctions (for centralised, competitive procurement of renewables) have become increasingly widespread and have been instrumental in discovering renewable energy prices and containing policy costs in many countries, especially for solar PV and wind.
However, the success of such policies in achieving deployment and development objectives relies on their design and ability to attract investment and competition.
Distributed PV
Increasingly, distributed generation is supported through net metering and net billing, with a number of possibilities to remunerate excess electricity fed into the grid.
However, careful consideration is needed to avoid jeopardising the electricity network’s cost recovery and creating cross-subsidisation among those customers that self-consume and those that do not.
Policy design for variable renewables
Increasingly competitive, renewables – especially solar PV and wind – are rapidly transforming power systems worldwide. However, reforms to market design and policy frameworks will be needed to ensure investment at scale both in new renewable capacities and in power system flexibility to integrate high shares of variable renewables in a reliable and cost-effective manner.
As variable renewable energy shares increase, policies ensuring investment in all forms of flexibility become crucial.
These include, for example, policies and measures to:
- enhance power plant flexibility by improving operations of the existing conventional fleet
- unlock demand-side management, for example by allowing the participation of pools of consumers in the system services market
- support energy storage
- improve and enhance grid infrastructure
Addressing technology-specific challenges
Some renewable technologies are still relatively expensive and/or face specific technology and market challenges, so require more targeted policies.
These policies could address:
- better remuneration of the market value of storage for concentrating solar power (CSP) and pumped-storage technologies
- timely grid connection and continued implementation of policies that spur competition to achieve further cost reductions for offshore wind
- improved policies to tackle pre-development risks for geothermal energy
- larger demonstration projects for ocean technologies
Other policy actions are needed to reflect the multiple benefits of bioenergy for electricity, including rural development, waste management and dispatchability.
Sector coupling becomes important
As the transport, heating and cooling, and power sectors become increasingly interdependent, cross-linked decision making and policies designed to be beneficial across sectors will be crucial.
For example, the success of electric vehicle (EV) deployment will depend critically on the strengthening of electricity distribution networks and smart charging systems at the local level.
Renewable power technologies
Solar PV remains on track with the SDS, with generation increasing by over 30% in 2018 thanks to continued policy support and cost reductions.
Bioenergy was upgraded from ‘more efforts needed’ to ‘on track’ due to positive policy and market developments in China.
The tracking status of onshore wind, offshore wind and hydropower remains unchanged as ‘more efforts needed’, while concentrating solar power, geothermal and ocean power remain well below the growth rates necessary to meet clean energy goals.
Solar PV
Although capacity additions remained flat in 2018, solar PV generation increased 31% in 2018, and represented the largest absolute generation growth (+136 TWh) of all renewable technologies, slightly ahead of wind and hydropower. Despite recent policy changes and uncertainties in China, India and the United States, solar PV competitiveness improved. Solar PV is still on track to reach the levels envisioned in the SDS, which will require average annual growth of 16% between 2018 and 2030.
Solar PV power generation
Historical Forecast SDS 2000 1.0 2001 1.3 2002 1.6 2003 2.0 2004 2.7 2005 3.9 2006 5.5 2007 7.5 2008 11.9 2009 20.0 2010 32.2 2011 63.2 2012 99.0 2013 139.4 2014 190.2 2015 250.2 2016 328.0 2017 434.6 2018 570.8 2019 754.9 2020 911.6 2021 1079.7 2022 1262.8 2023 1459.8 2025 1939.6 2030 3268.0
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Onshore wind
In 2018, onshore wind electricity generation increased by an estimated 12%, while capacity additions only grew 7%. However, more efforts are needed: annual additions of onshore wind capacity need to increase much faster through 2030 to get on track with the SDS.
Onshore wind power generation
Historical Forecast SDS 2000 31.2 2001 38.3 2002 52.5 2003 62.9 2004 82.4 2005 101.4 2006 130.0 2007 166.7 2008 215.6 2009 272.5 2010 333.7 2011 424.3 2012 509.3 2013 625.9 2014 693.7 2015 799.6 2016 916.2 2017 1030.2 2018 1149.4 2019 1268.6 2020 1378.3 2021 1492.3 2022 1604.8 2023 1708.1 2025 2399.5 2030 3748.7
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Offshore wind
Compared with record 32% growth in 2017, offshore wind electricity generation increased only 20% in 2018. Given its relatively small base, offshore wind growth must accelerate even further to reach the generation levels demonstrated in the SDS. Cost reductions, technology improvements and rapid deployment achieved in Europe need to be extended to other regions.
Offshore wind power generation
Historical Forecast SDS 2000 0.1 0.0 0.0 2001 0.2 0.0 0.0 2002 0.4 0.0 0.0 2003 1.3 0.0 0.0 2004 2.0 0.0 0.0 2005 2.5 0.0 0.0 2006 3.1 0.0 0.0 2007 4.1 0.0 0.0 2008 5.4 0.0 0.0 2009 5.0 0.0 0.0 2010 7.7 0.0 0.0 2011 11.7 0.0 0.0 2012 14.8 0.0 0.0 2013 20.7 0.0 0.0 2014 24.6 0.0 0.0 2015 38.9 0.0 0.0 2016 41.5 0.0 0.0 2017 54.6 0.0 0.0 2018 65.8 0.0 0.0 2019 0.0 81.4 0.0 2020 0.0 98.4 0.0 2021 0.0 115.7 0.0 2022 0.0 140.7 0.0 2023 0.0 173.4 0.0 2025 0.0 0.0 307.5 2030 0.0 0.0 606.3
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Hydropower
Hydropower generation is estimated to have increased by over 3% in 2018 due to continued recovery from drought in Latin America as well as strong capacity expansion and good water availability in China. This was a much larger increase than the 1.5% increase in 2017. However, capacity additions declined for the fifth consecutive year, putting this technology off track with the SDS, which requires continuous growth in new-build capacity to maintain an average generation increase of 2.5% per year through 2030.
Hydropower generation
Historical Forecast SDS 2000 2618.3 2001 2561.1 2002 2628.8 2003 2641.6 2004 2812.1 2005 2934.8 2006 3044.6 2007 3083.3 2008 3213.2 2009 3267.5 2010 3445.3 2011 3514.0 2012 3677.8 2013 3809.0 2014 3905.9 2015 3904.7 2016 4061.5 2017 4109.4 2018 4243.5 2019 4274.2 2020 4364.4 2021 4440.0 2022 4505.4 2023 4576.4 2025 5011.7 2030 5722.4
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Bioenergy power generation
In 2018, bioenergy electricity generation increased by over 8%, maintaining average growth rates since 2011 and exceeding the 6% annual rate needed through 2030 to reach the SDS level. As recent positive policy and market developments in emerging economies indicate an optimistic outlook for bioenergy, its tracking status was upgraded in 2018 from ‘more efforts needed’ to ‘on track’.
Bioenergy power generation
Historical Forecast SDS 2000 132.1 2001 132.7 2002 146.0 2003 157.0 2004 172.1 2005 192.2 2006 206.1 2007 225.5 2008 244.2 2009 266.0 2010 310.4 2011 328.2 2012 356.4 2013 389.2 2014 423.8 2015 451.3 2016 498.5 2017 531.4 2018 592.2 2019 637.4 2020 676.5 2021 708.3 2022 737.3 2023 764.1 2025 921.8 2030 1168.2
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Concentrating solar power (CSP)
Concentrating solar power (CSP) generation increased by an estimated 8% in 2018. Nevertheless, CSP is not on track with the SDS, which requires annual average growth of almost 26% through 2030. Policy design that emphasises CSP plant storage value will be key to attract additional investment.
Concentrating solar power (CSP) generation
Historical Forecast SDS 2000 0.5 2001 0.6 2002 0.6 2003 0.5 2004 0.6 2005 0.6 2006 0.6 2007 0.7 2008 0.9 2009 0.9 2010 1.6 2011 2.9 2012 4.7 2013 5.9 2014 8.4 2015 9.6 2016 10.5 2017 11.0 2018 11.9 2019 18.0 2020 20.7 2021 23.3 2022 28.3 2023 30.7 2025 53.8 2030 183.8
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Geothermal
Geothermal electricity generation increased by an estimated 6% in 2018, much more than the average growth of the five previous years. Nevertheless, the technology is still not on track to reach the SDS level, which would require a 10% annual increase in generation over 2018‑30. Policies tackling challenges associated with pre-development risks are needed to increase the deployment of geothermal for power.
Geothermal generation
Historical Forecast SDS 2000 52.0 2001 51.6 2002 52.3 2003 54.1 2004 56.5 2005 58.3 2006 59.6 2007 62.3 2008 64.9 2009 67.0 2010 68.1 2011 69.2 2012 70.2 2013 71.6 2014 77.4 2015 80.5 2016 81.7 2017 87.5 2018 92.7 2019 93.0 2020 97.1 2021 101.5 2022 106.1 2023 110.6 2025 162.2 2030 282.0
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Ocean power
Electricity generation from marine technologies increased an estimated 3% in 2018. The technology is not on track with the SDS, which requires a much higher annual growth rate of 24% through 2030. Policies promoting R&D are needed to achieve further cost reductions and large-scale development.
Ocean power generation
Historical Forecast SDS 2000 0.5 2001 0.5 2002 0.5 2003 0.5 2004 0.5 2005 0.5 2006 0.5 2007 0.5 2008 0.5 2009 0.5 2010 0.5 2011 0.5 2012 0.5 2013 0.9 2014 1.0 2015 1.0 2016 1.0 2017 1.1 2018 1.1 2019 1.1 2020 1.2 2021 1.2 2022 1.2 2023 1.2 2025 4.0 2030 15.0
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