Not on track
Coal power generation increased 3% in 2018 (similar to the 2017 increase), and for the first time crossed the 10 000 TWh mark. Coal remains firmly in place as the largest source of power at 38% of overall generation. Growth was mainly in Asia, particularly in China and India. That said, investment in coal-fired power declined by nearly 3% to the lowest level since 2004, and final investment decisions for new plants continue to decline. Coal-fired generation without CCUS needs to decrease 5.8% per year to 2030 to be in line with the SDS.
Raimund Malischek
Lead author
Share of coal-fired power generation in the SDS
Coal without CCUS Non-fossil electricity
2000 38.855 35.438
2001 38.673 35.180
2002 38.981 34.604
2003 40.082 33.469
2004 39.552 33.759
2005 39.984 33.447
2006 40.691 33.136
2007 41.312 31.879
2008 40.828 32.350
2009 40.234 32.970
2010 40.330 32.742
2011 41.232 31.923
2012 40.461 32.073
2013 41.256 32.557
2014 40.668 33.298
2015 39.326 33.688
2016 38.424 34.663
2017 38.389 35.150
2025 24.925 49.381
2030 15.556 61.200
2040 5.339 79.692
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Back to Power sector | TCEP overview 🕐 Last updated Friday, May 24, 2019
Tracking progress
Coal-based generation rose by 3% in 2018, the same rate as in 2017, to reach a new peak at more than 10 000 TWh.
CCUS-equipped coal generation still accounts for only a negligible share of overall coal generation, as just two plants are currently in operation; it is therefore not in line with the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS).
Coal-fired power generation without CCUS is also not on track with the SDS, which would require a decline of 5.8% per year until 2030.
Trends by region
Coal generation in Asia – particularly China and India – increased significantly, but it fell elsewhere, including in the United States and Europe. It remains the largest source of electricity generation worldwide, with a share of 38%.
Coal-fired power generation in the United States continued to drop in 2018 (by 60 TWh) despite strong electricity demand growth, as 15 GW of coal capacity was retired.
Coal generation in Europe also decreased (by 20 TWh), mainly because of strong renewables-based expansion. In fact, many countries have announced coal phase-outs: Germany, the largest coal consumer in Europe, plans to be coal-free by 2038.
Changes in coal-fired power generation by region
Change in generation World 3 United States -5 Europe -2 China 5 India 5 Southeast Asia 8
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China, India and Southeast Asia led the overall increase in coal-fired electricity generation in emerging economies in 2018. China’s coal power generation rose by 4% in response to rising electricity demand (+8%), while generation from gas and renewable energy sources also continued to grow.
Coal-fired electricity generation in India rose by 5%, a slowdown from 2017 due to lower power demand growth, and generation also increased strongly in Southeast Asian economies.
Investment
Despite higher generation, investments in coal-fired power (at under USD 60 billion) were nearly 3% lower than in 2017, falling to the lowest level since 2004 mainly due to China and India.
Moreover, new coal-fired power plant capacity receiving final investment decisions (FIDs) declined by 30% to 22 GW, the lowest level this century.
Most FIDs are now for high-efficiency plants, with inefficient subcritical plants comprising only 10%.
The largest fall in FIDs was in China, but levels in Southeast Asia were at their lowest level in 14 years. India was the largest market, now largely oriented towards supercritical technology, but levels were 80% lower than in 2010.
Coal capacity by type
CCS CHP Ultra-supercritical Supercritical Subcritical 2010 1.27 378.26 82.52 259.02 912.37 2011 1.28 400.87 100.00 281.55 933.38 2012 1.45 419.68 119.36 299.69 937.88 2013 1.72 437.47 139.05 311.04 939.75 2014 1.84 453.77 157.39 326.80 945.89 2015 1.87 474.44 195.05 341.28 950.82 2016 1.60 485.81 230.59 355.55 946.70 2017 2.17 486.86 265.82 388.96 944.88 2020 2025 5.13 443.20 316.18 434.26 744.54 2030 54.98 399.74 238.45 370.01 569.36
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Current investment levels are not sufficient to raise CCUS-equipped coal-fired power generation from less than 1 TWh today to the 310 TWh by 2030 seen in the SDS.
Building unabated coal plants today risks locking in emissions over the long term and stranding assets. As coal plant capacity already exceeds the SDS level, getting on track with its trajectory will require more retirements or decreased utilisation (or both) over the next decade.
Recommended actions
Policy measures are required to ensure that processes are in place to:
- assess the potential to deploy lower-carbon generation options
- phase out generation from less-efficient subcritical coal units when possible
- check that new coal-fired unit efficiencies are consistent with global best practice – currently supercritical or ultra-supercritical technologies
These measures are particularly important for emerging economies in Asia, where electricity demand is expanding and coal remains a fuel of choice for meeting it.
Also, whenever it is feasible, new coal-fired units should be constructed CCUS-ready. Then, when policy or economics dictate, CCUS can be deployed quickly.
Modernising the existing coal power plant fleet with flexibility and efficiency improvements remains a priority. To this end, in January 2019 the US Department of Energy announced up to USD 38 million in funding for R&D to enhance the overall performance, reliability and flexibility of existing coal-fired plants.
Innovation gaps
Innovation efforts should focus on boosting overall full-load efficiency and plant flexibility, for example by increasing ramping speed (the pace at which generation can be increased to meet demand) and part-load efficiencies. Flexibility improvements to plants will be crucial to integrate a growing share of variable renewable generation into the grid system.
Reducing local air pollution from coal plants continues to be a priority, and the importance of improving CCUS for coal to conform with carbon constraints is increasingly being recognised.
Several innovative approaches are being explored, such as integrated gasification fuel cells, direct coal fuel cells and supercritical CO2 power cycles. These technologies, which promise ultra-high efficiencies, are at different stages of development, with several technical and engineering challenges that still need to be overcome.
Need for higher combustion temperatures and efficiencies for pulverised coal-fired power plants
Advanced ultra-supercritical (AUSC) coal plants promise higher combustion temperatures and efficiencies, and hence lower emissions. Certain technological limits have yet to be overcome, however, to address the high temperatures and pressures. The SDS envisions a shift in the coal power plant fleet towards the highest-efficiency plants (USC and AUSC), and away from subcritical and supercritical technologies.
Additional resources
References
- IEA CCC (International Energy Agency Clean Coal Centre) (2019), "Technology readiness of advanced coal-based power generation systems", , https://www.iea-coal.org/technology-readiness-of-advanced-coal-based-power-generation-systems-ccc-292/.
Acknowledgements
Keith Burnard (IEAGHG), Andrew Minchener (IEA Clean Coal Centre), Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer (World Energy Council)