Not on track
Power sector emissions increased 2.6% in 2017 and a further 2.5% in 2018, following three years of decline. In contrast, emissions in the SDS fall on average 4.1% per year to 2030. The SDS also sees emission intensity of electricity falling by 3.4% annually. In 2018, emissions intensity fell by only 1.3% as a result of generation from low-carbon technologies rising 6%, offset by a 2.6% increase in non-abated coal.
Davide D'Ambrosio
Lead author
Power sector CO2 emissions
Gas Coal Total
2000 1.75 6.46 9.30
2001 1.83 6.61 9.51
2002 1.93 6.76 9.64
2003 1.99 7.26 10.20
2004 2.09 7.52 10.57
2005 2.17 7.80 10.92
2006 2.25 8.22 11.35
2007 2.36 8.61 11.85
2008 2.41 8.56 11.83
2009 2.41 8.40 11.65
2010 2.61 8.95 12.41
2011 2.65 9.41 12.98
2012 2.76 9.53 13.25
2013 2.70 9.87 13.49
2014 2.73 9.84 13.44
2015 2.84 9.57 13.26
2016 2.94 9.51 13.25
2017 2.96 9.82 13.59
2018 3.05 10.10 13.93
2020 2.99 9.18 12.89
2025 3.13 6.99 10.66
2030 3.01 4.46 7.84
2035 2.64 2.23 5.13
2040 2.16 0.93 3.29
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Back to TCEP overview 🕐 Last updated Tuesday, June 11, 2019
Tracking progress
Global electricity demand increased 4% in 2018, with low-carbon generation expanding 6% to meet a considerable share of this growth.
Nevertheless, coal remained the largest source of electricity generation with an increase of 2.6%. Power sector CO2 emissions rose by 2.5% as a result, with coal responsible for 80% of this increase.
In 2018, 42% of all energy-related CO2 emissions came from the power sector, causing it to remain the largest source of energy-related CO2 emissions. It is therefore increasingly critical that the power sector deliver the access, air pollution and climate outcomes of the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) for the clean energy transition to be successful.
Carbon intensity
After stalling in 2017, the carbon intensity of power generation declined 1.3% in 2018 to an estimated 478 gCO2/kWh. This change resulted from a 7% increase in renewable generation (thanks to policy support and falling costs) and a 3.3% increase in nuclear generation, somewhat offset by 2.6% higher coal-based generation.
The decline in average carbon intensity of electricity generation must accelerate to 3.4% per year, however, to meet the SDS level of 220 gCO2/kWh in 2030, which is less than half the current value.
This considerable reduction in power generation carbon intensity is one of the cornerstones of the SDS, especially since electricity is increasingly used to meet end-use energy demand.
Achieving this reduction will entail a significant shift in the technology mix.
Carbon intensity of electricity generation in selected regions
China India United States Southeast Asia World European Union 2000 898 806 620 587 534 402 2001 875 802 656 591 543 396 2002 893 785 583 589 531 401 2003 915 771 586 577 542 404 2004 879 801 585 579 539 393 2005 850 784 583 592 539 390 2006 844 770 559 577 540 391 2007 809 797 568 596 544 397 2008 775 806 551 594 533 373 2009 770 829 522 575 528 354 2010 749 805 527 597 526 344 2011 764 776 507 586 534 346 2012 740 853 484 563 532 347 2013 725 812 486 561 528 328 2014 680 834 482 583 517 313 2015 651 775 452 594 502 306 2016 628 725 430 589 487 289 2017 620 723 420 592 484 282 2018 605 705 411 591 478 262 2020 557 647 370 574 433 223 2025 431 496 258 473 332 155 2030 286 337 149 322 221 81 2035 133 198 75 202 126 51 2040 43 118 25 141 69 35
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Share of low-carbon generation
An important indicator of clean energy transition progress in the power sector is the share of low-carbon technologies (renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and storage) being used. In 2018, 36% of generation came from low-carbon technologies – an increase of less than 1% from 2017.
Alignment with the SDS will require profound transformation of the power sector to limit CO2 emissions, reduce air pollution and enlarge energy access. A drastic change is needed to attain 63% of generation from low-carbon technologies, with solar PV leading in installed capacity in 2030 under the SDS, followed closely by wind in the late 2030s.
Generation from coal must decline sharply to 16% in 2030 and only 5% in 2040, with 65% of plants fitted with carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS). Natural gas still figures in the generation mix in the SDS because of its lower CO2 emissions, with gas-fired generation increasing until 2030 and then declining to 14% in 2040.
Shares of electricity generation by source
Low carbon Renewables Unabated fossil fuels 2000 35.35 18.57 64.50 2001 35.09 18.14 64.76 2002 34.51 18.06 65.34 2003 33.33 17.61 66.51 2004 33.65 18.03 66.19 2005 33.32 18.19 66.50 2006 33.02 18.34 66.82 2007 31.78 18.07 68.07 2008 32.28 18.76 67.59 2009 32.94 19.55 66.92 2010 32.62 19.79 67.22 2011 31.80 20.15 68.04 2012 31.97 21.12 67.88 2013 32.53 21.92 67.31 2014 33.25 22.61 66.59 2015 33.67 23.08 66.18 2016 34.52 24.06 65.34 2017 35.00 24.73 64.85 2018 35.71 25.49 64.15 2020 39.62 28.89 60.26 2025 49.38 37.83 50.52 2030 62.71 48.62 37.19 2035 76.13 58.40 23.77 2040 85.52 66.24 14.39
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Investment
Global power sector investment fell by 1% to just over USD 775 billion in 2018, with lower capital spending on generation. Investment in electricity networks edged down, although investment in battery storage surged by 45% from a relatively low base.
Investments in coal-fired power declined by nearly 3% to their lowest level since 2004, mainly as a result of decreased spending in China and India. After rising to a ten-year high in 2012, gas-fired power spending also decreased, mainly in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and in the United States.
In 2018, coal-fired power final investment decisions (FIDs) declined by 30% to 22 GW, their lowest level this century.
Most FIDs are now for high-efficiency plants, with inefficient subcritical plants comprising only 10%. The largest fall in FIDs was in China, but levels in Southeast Asia were their lowest level in 14 years. India was the largest market, now largely oriented towards supercritical technology, but levels were 80% lower than in 2010.
FIDs for gas-fired power also dropped for the third consecutive year, by nearly 15%, though remained twice as high as those for coal.
The largest declines in gas FIDs were in the MENA region (-50%), where there is excess capacity in the power system, and the United States (-30%). In contrast, they grew in China by 70%, and for the first time more gas-fired power capacity was sanctioned than that of coal.
Renewables-based power investment edged down by 1%, as net additions to capacity were flat and costs fell in some technologies, but spending was also supported by plants under development
Investment in electricity networks decreased modestly (‑1%) in 2018, with China and the United States accounting for nearly half of global spending.
Spending on transmission grids (around 30% of network investment) has risen steadily since 2014 to support the connection of more generation, system integration of variable renewables and large-scale interconnection projects.
Investment in the United States increased 8%, with 60% of spending going to distribution grids.
Spending in the EU rose by 8%, largely for transmission.
In India, grid investments amounted to over USD 20 billion, mostly for transmission, as distribution spending became more moderate. The Central Electricity Authority recently announced that USD 40 billion in transmission spending is needed in the next three years – 60% more than the current level.
Global power investment by technology
Fossil fuel power Nuclear Renewable power Electricity networks Battery storage 2005 127.8 6.93679 120.567 203.18896 0.0154194 2006 136.109 6.61481 143.122 217.03528 0.00823651 2007 150.033 7.98596 182.943 230.83411 0.00261101 2008 166.71 11.67 214.98 248.77 0.11 2009 173.51 17.23 244.78 235.54 0.06 2010 173.21 21.50 294.10 255.54 0.09 2011 175.40 22.67 315.37 263.87 0.22 2012 170.81 25.27 294.84 254.83 0.18 2013 156.94 31.10 293.78 263.27 0.42 2014 148.49 34.60 298.74 270.44 0.80 2015 143.65 36.23 308.63 286.53 1.49 2016 140.14 41.88 316.83 297.84 2.43 2017 133.72 46.94 312.72 290.78 2.84 2018 126.91 47.29 313.39 288.34 4.12
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Recommended actions
Reducing policy uncertainty
For all low-carbon power technologies, long-term target and policy stability is necessary to ensure investor confidence and continued growth. At the same time, however, policies need to continuously adapt to changing market conditions to achieve greater cost-competitiveness and to better integrate variable renewables into the system.
Policy design for variable renewables
Renewables – especially solar PV and wind – are rapidly transforming power systems worldwide. While renewables are becoming increasingly cost-competitive, market design and policy reforms will soon be necessary to guarantee at-scale investments in new renewable capacity and in power system flexibility to reliably and cost-effectively integrate high shares of variable renewables.
As variable renewable energy shares expand, policies to ensure investment in all forms of flexibility are becoming crucial.
Carbon pricing and regulations
Carbon taxes and the regulation of plant emissions could encourage coal-to-gas switching and provide an important long-term investment signal for CCUS.
Also required are additional electricity market mechanisms that recognise the potential benefits of natural gas-fired power as a lower-carbon alternative to coal-fired generation with operational flexibility that allows for better integration of variable renewables.
While CCUS in power is still at an early stage of commercialisation, complementary and targeted policy measures such as tax credits and grant funding will be needed to secure investment. Nevertheless, new coal-fired units should be constructed CCUS-ready, with efficiencies consistent with global best practices (supercritical or ultra-supercritical technologies).
Power sector technologies
Only two technologies, solar PV and bioenergy, are on track with the SDS, and four are well off track: coal-fired power, geothermal, ocean and CCUS. While renewables are making progress, much more needs to be done to decarbonise the power sector to get aligned with the SDS.
Renewable power
In 2018, renewable electricity generation rose 7%, with wind and solar PV technologies together accounting for 60% of this increase. Although the share of renewables in global electricity generation reached 26% in 2018, renewable power as a whole still needs to expand significantly to meet the SDS share of half of generation by 2030. This requires the rate of annual capacity additions to accelerate; however, renewable capacity growth stalled in 2018 for the first time since 2001.
Share of renewables in power generation
Low carbon Renewables 2000 35.35182448 18.36559433 2001 35.09151663 17.90618585 2002 34.51305531 17.8274563 2003 33.32882749 17.41873988 2004 33.64636133 17.84474488 2005 33.3162649 18.00412933 2006 33.02102044 18.14984674 2007 31.78039063 17.89809635 2008 32.28277547 18.58346722 2009 32.93931351 19.36389966 2010 32.6194428 19.55360993 2011 31.80048507 19.90599511 2012 31.97261555 20.87056328 2013 32.52627338 21.66194752 2014 33.25410756 22.34519841 2015 33.66798662 22.80904278 2016 34.51647783 23.83251351 2017 35.00085233 24.44460533 2018 35.70686333 25.23796509 2025 49.3756944 37.82935019 2030 62.71312351 48.62234959
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Nuclear power
In 2018, 11.2 GW of additional nuclear capacity were connected to the grid, the largest increase since 1989. New projects were launched representing over 6 GW, and refurbishment projects are under way in many countries to ensure long-term operation of the existing fleet. Nevertheless, more efforts in terms of policies, financing and cost reductions are needed to maintain existing capacity and bring new reactors online. Under current trends, nuclear capacity in 2030 would amount to 497 GW, compared with 542 GW under the SDS. At least a doubling of the annual rate of capacity additions is therefore required.
This section was authored by the Nuclear Energy Agency, Division of Nuclear Technology Development and Economics (NTE)
Current and future nuclear capacity
Current fleet with 60-year operating life Without additional construction With planned construction SDS 2000 384.00 2001 387.00 2002 391.00 2003 392.00 2004 397.00 2005 398.00 2006 397.00 2007 399.00 2008 399.00 2009 399.00 2010 401.00 2011 394.00 2012 396.00 2013 394 2014 398 2015 404 2016 413 2017 419 2018 424 2019 436 2020 443 2021 441 2022 439 439 2023 437 2024 434 2025 429 437 467 2026 427 2027 427 2028 426 2029 423 2030 421 497 542 2031 418 2032 413 2033 406 2034 395 2035 387 2036 376 2037 370 2038 358 2039 352 2040 337 518 678
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Natural gas-fired power
Gas-fired power generation increased 4% in 2018, led by strong generation growth in the United States and China. At around 6 100 TWh, gas accounts for 23% of overall power generation. In the SDS, gas use as a flexible transition fuel increases until the late 2020s, displacing unabated coal, but gas without CCUS declines steadily thereafter. This indicator remains yellow as we don’t yet see the kind of commitments globally for CCUS with natural gas that would provide confidence of achieving an SDS trajectory by 2030.
Evolution of gas-fired power generation in the SDS
Gas Low-carbon Coal 2000 2753 5459 6005 2001 2907 5461 6024 2002 3109 5581 6309 2003 3270 5586 6722 2004 3513 5899 6950 2005 3702 6096 7335 2006 3912 6277 7746 2007 4220 6306 8207 2008 4376 6525 8258 2009 4423 6634 8099 2010 4822 7017 8664 2011 4883 7067 9142 2012 5086 7262 9180 2013 5027 7611 9633 2014 5159 7940 9698 2015 5519 8166 9532 2016 5781 8638 9575 2017 5855 9026 9858 2025 6810 14251 7193 2030 6830 19070 4847 2035 6255 24422 3050 2040 5358 29577 1982
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Coal-fired power
Coal power generation increased 3% in 2018 (similar to the 2017 increase), and for the first time crossed the 10 000 TWh mark. Coal remains firmly in place as the largest source of power at 38% of overall generation. Growth was mainly in Asia, particularly in China and India. That said, investment in coal-fired power declined by nearly 3% to the lowest level since 2004, and final investment decisions for new plants continue to decline. Coal-fired generation without CCUS needs to decrease 5.8% per year to 2030 to be in line with the SDS.
Share of coal-fired power generation in the SDS
Coal without CCUS Non-fossil electricity 2000 38.855 35.438 2001 38.673 35.180 2002 38.981 34.604 2003 40.082 33.469 2004 39.552 33.759 2005 39.984 33.447 2006 40.691 33.136 2007 41.312 31.879 2008 40.828 32.350 2009 40.234 32.970 2010 40.330 32.742 2011 41.232 31.923 2012 40.461 32.073 2013 41.256 32.557 2014 40.668 33.298 2015 39.326 33.688 2016 38.424 34.663 2017 38.389 35.150 2025 24.925 49.381 2030 15.556 61.200 2040 5.339 79.692
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CCUS in power
With only two large-scale CCUS power projects in operation at the end of 2018 and a combined capture capacity of 2.4 million tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2) per year, CCUS in power remains well off track to reach the 2030 SDS level of 350 MtCO2 per year. As CCUS applied to power is at an early stage of commercialisation, securing investments will require complementary and targeted policy measures such as tax credits or grant funding. Support for innovation needs to target cost reductions and broaden the portfolio of CCUS technologies.
Large-scale CO2 capture projects in power generation
SDS Existing capacity Development pipeline 2000 0 2001 0 2002 0 2003 0 2004 0 2005 0 2006 0 2007 0 2008 0 2009 0 2010 0 2011 0 2012 0 2013 0 2014 1 2015 1 2016 1 2017 2.4 2018 2.4 2019 2.4 2020 2.4 2021 2.4 2022 2.4 2023 2.4 2.4 2024 3 2025 11 2030 350 2040 1488
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