Not on track
Emissions from buildings appear to have risen again in 2018 for the second year in a row, creeping above their 2013 level to an all-time high. This resulted from several factors, including extreme weather that raised energy demand for heating and cooling, which together represented one-fifth of the total global increase in final energy demand in 2018. Enormous potential remains untapped due to the widespread use of less-efficient technologies, a lack of effective policies and insufficient investment in sustainable buildings.
John Dulac
Lead author
Contributors: Thibaut Abergel, Chiara Delmastro
Buildings sector CO2 emissions
Emissions
2000 7.651714845
2001 7.79680108
2002 7.91911979
2003 8.241507003
2004 8.436443729
2005 8.662139946
2006 8.726392463
2007 8.964946624
2008 9.054645546
2009 8.991329634
2010 9.135102031
2011 9.17082578
2012 9.287941862
2013 9.532713133
2014 9.541718576
2015 9.510780385
2016 9.488335734
2017 9.552827037
2018 9.639376059
2019 9.308769732
2020 8.978163404
2021 8.749757972
2022 8.474846242
2023 8.173012496
2024 7.858900338
2025 7.530872967
2026 7.224980394
2027 6.91006574
2028 6.571955431
2029 6.226062032
2030 5.861242403
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Note: includes indirect emissions from consumption of electricity and commercial heat in buildings.
Back to TCEP overview 🕐 Last updated Monday, July 1, 2019
Tracking progress
Final energy use in buildings grew from 2 820 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2010 to around 3 060 Mtoe in 2018, while the share of fossil fuels decreased only slightly, from 38% in 2010 to 36% in 2018.
As a result, direct emissions from buildings increased to just over 3 GtCO2 in 2018, a slight rebound from just under 3 GtCO2 in previous years.
When indirect emissions from upstream power generation are considered, buildings were responsible for 28% of global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2018. In absolute terms, buildings-related CO2 emissions rose for the second year in a row to an all-time high of 9.6 GtCO2.
This trend reversal since 2013 is due to a combination of factors. Whereas emissions fell after 2013 largely because of progress in reducing power generation carbon intensity, now demand for building energy services – particularly electricity for cooling, appliances and other plug loads, and connected devices – is growing at a faster pace than decarbonised power availability, which has led to a resurgence in buildings-related emissions.
Extreme heat in many parts of the world was responsible for a considerable portion of electricity demand growth in 2018.
Very high temperatures and prolonged heat waves set records in many countries, driving up demand for air conditioning. In Europe, the historical heat record was nearly broken in August as temperatures in parts of Spain and Portugal crept above 48°C. Tokyo had its highest-ever recorded temperature of 41°C in late July, and in South Korea as many as 29 people died from heatstroke after temperatures in Seoul hit a 111-year high. Beijing also broke a 50-year record in June.
Energy intensity
The speed of energy intensity reductions in the buildings sector has fallen in recent years, from around 2% in 2015 to an estimated low of 0.6% in 2018 – which is significantly less than the floor area increase of 2.5% from 2017 to 2018.
This is symptomatic of decelerating energy policy progress, demonstrating that the evolution of building energy codes in particular is not keeping up with rapid growth in emerging economies.
To get on track with the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), annual drops in energy intensity per m2 globally need to return quickly to at least 2.5% – the rates of the early 2000s.
In some critical emerging markets, particularly in Africa, Latin America and Asia, the rate of change in buildings sector energy intensity needs to double (or more). A similar rate of change is required in major advanced economies, which need to significantly step up deep energy renovations of existing buildings.
Building sector energy intensity
World OECD Americas OECD Europe OECD Pacific Eurasia China India Other Asia Latin America Africa Middle East 2000 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 2001 97.36 95.21 103.13 97.77 97.20 92.98 97.76 97.02 96.28 98.63 104.22 2002 95.19 96.46 99.01 98.94 92.27 88.38 95.94 95.95 95.74 96.95 104.98 2003 94.72 96.29 100.87 95.75 92.65 87.70 95.16 95.66 95.59 93.46 103.44 2004 93.48 93.30 100.44 95.26 89.70 88.33 93.40 95.58 95.48 92.82 105.99 2005 91.43 92.21 100.27 95.62 84.06 84.25 88.91 95.37 97.84 92.59 108.53 2006 88.92 86.62 98.48 91.27 84.74 83.66 81.81 94.25 97.28 90.95 111.94 2007 87.63 89.05 91.66 90.34 83.77 81.13 82.20 93.65 99.01 89.95 112.22 2008 86.20 88.12 94.86 86.58 82.00 76.31 83.13 91.72 96.04 88.88 105.55 2009 84.07 84.97 92.50 86.72 75.26 74.76 84.84 91.06 95.75 88.07 104.71 2010 83.18 84.90 96.74 87.81 70.82 71.65 82.94 89.86 96.44 85.91 100.32 2011 80.96 83.27 86.49 84.61 72.33 72.20 81.68 89.16 94.82 85.38 99.05 2012 79.16 76.98 88.37 83.84 68.11 72.60 78.60 90.14 95.61 84.90 94.52 2013 79.48 82.28 87.25 83.06 65.61 73.47 74.62 88.98 99.84 84.23 96.50 2014 77.31 82.31 77.36 79.41 66.15 73.51 67.92 87.84 100.94 83.55 97.22 2015 75.71 77.74 79.35 77.76 62.59 73.97 64.76 87.16 98.76 82.17 97.58 2016 74.74 75.73 78.91 78.11 62.89 74.09 62.64 85.51 98.27 80.61 96.26 2017 73.72 74.93 77.38 76.80 61.74 73.61 60.76 84.54 97.89 80.43 94.90 2018 73.30 74.29 75.95 76.00 60.96 73.41 63.37 83.11 97.95 80.54 94.65 2019 71.53 72.72 73.47 73.82 59.42 72.46 60.81 82.63 93.95 78.76 92.85 2020 69.81 71.12 71.45 71.86 57.89 71.43 58.14 80.47 92.21 77.52 91.27 2021 68.26 69.66 69.64 70.26 56.47 70.50 55.70 78.75 90.83 76.20 89.94 2022 66.63 68.15 67.85 68.65 55.04 69.38 53.03 76.88 89.26 74.82 88.59 2023 65.00 66.73 66.12 67.06 53.62 68.08 50.40 75.06 87.70 73.42 87.34 2024 63.42 65.28 64.39 65.50 52.24 66.88 47.92 73.26 86.12 71.95 86.83 2025 61.90 63.81 62.73 63.95 50.84 65.70 45.63 71.55 84.55 70.46 86.77 2026 60.38 62.36 61.16 62.41 49.44 64.49 43.50 69.96 82.99 68.94 85.69 2027 58.92 60.95 59.70 60.92 48.08 63.47 41.47 68.42 81.43 67.39 84.65 2028 57.47 59.51 58.26 59.47 46.75 62.31 39.59 66.96 79.86 65.86 83.42 2029 56.12 58.13 56.84 58.08 45.46 61.25 37.82 65.57 78.26 64.35 83.14 2030 54.78 56.73 55.51 56.72 44.26 60.03 36.14 64.16 76.66 62.83 83.14
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Policy coverage
Energy efficiency policy for buildings continued to progress in 2018, although at slower rate than in 2017, reflecting an overall slowing trend in energy efficiency policy globally. About 40% of energy use in buildings was covered by policies in 2018, only a slight improvement from the 38% coverage in 2017.
The slowdown is due in part to market changes, as growth in energy demand is shifting from China – where policy coverage improved substantially in the last two decades – to other emerging economies, where policies cover a smaller share of buildings energy use.
Lighting, which was the bright spot of energy policy improvement in the past decade, appears saturated at about three-quarters of energy use covered by energy efficiency policies in 2018.
While the major push to phase out incandescent lamps since 2008 has helped improve coverage, annual improvements in 2017 and 2018 were less impressive.
This reflects a worrying trend in overall buildings energy policy coverage, with annual rates of improvement diminishing from 5-8% in the 2000s to 2-3% in recent years.
Figures for policy coverage also do not indicate how stringent polices are, and many policies have not been updated to increase stringency. For example, lighting policies in many countries have not been updated to phase out halogen lamps.
Policy coverage of total final energy consumption in buildings
Lighting Space cooling Space heating Water heating Appliances Total buildings 2000 3.083388759 29.27214468 28.15502647 18.75399234 10.27334579 16.57825473 2001 3.189085583 32.65089774 30.7172822 19.99998936 10.91688086 18.01469793 2002 3.465215354 37.35761784 32.16962594 21.25334917 11.81999521 18.99075645 2003 4.182273618 41.06578666 34.36989469 23.35507516 12.42350029 20.55007765 2004 4.946209332 44.61795718 35.51732637 24.7394666 13.25216041 21.39241838 2005 5.394130851 48.81352671 36.50838503 26.15925616 14.3765826 22.29401483 2006 8.826458371 52.080698 37.50951567 26.59331174 15.29346913 22.72986432 2007 17.5684455 54.45084696 38.880991 27.49980638 16.24468854 23.89535465 2008 18.2685625 54.91603667 40.98886762 28.71225674 17.01586229 24.95892042 2009 27.75533741 55.47070743 43.07732186 28.88780898 19.15575206 26.37557093 2010 37.35154029 58.98970271 45.18814978 30.03501743 20.42369904 28.21121607 2011 49.02026626 60.34605195 45.87460781 30.52615593 22.90209706 29.43610817 2012 61.86834517 61.49099576 46.91920783 31.6761481 25.24938899 31.49682218 2013 67.76688505 61.82166837 49.82682001 32.69825982 27.43791744 33.66508673 2014 72.58164875 62.82489164 49.89826773 33.83633343 29.11718889 34.47571803 2015 73.69938979 63.79447904 50.28479884 35.05238057 31.12531693 35.29383768 2016 75.11848803 65.33768115 51.17172657 36.92065011 32.44289705 36.48418301 2017 76 65.98287942 52.70196441 37.516354 35.01004844 38.36803251 2018 76 66.88218731 53.73178275 38.86285728 36.81187493 39.659862
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Investment
Unsurprisingly, given the lack of major policy progress and clear market signals, investments in sustainable buildings are insufficient.
Although largest energy efficiency expenditures are still in buildings, growth in incremental energy efficiency investments decreased by 3% in 2018, to USD 138 billion.
Recommended actions
Effective policies are needed to address current market barriers. Multiple, cost-effective technologies, for high-efficiency lighting to low-cost building envelopes, can unleash major energy savings while also improving comfort and energy services in buildings. Building efficiency and demand side response also reduce the impact of rising electricity demand on the power sector.
Comprehensive policy packages are needed to group solutions under one umbrella. Pairing of traditional policy tools such as mandatory performance standards with more ambitious regulatory and financial incentives to engage the private sector can help bring multiple technical and market-based solutions for buildings together in arrangements such as one-stop shops and energy service companies. This would create a comprehensive framework to deliver cost-effective action tailored to specific building needs, using the most effective technology opportunities.
Set long-term commitments
Governments need to set clear, ambitious commitments to ensure long-term market signals.
Such commitments should put forward specific policy measures, such as building energy codes and mandatory performance standards for equipment to enable and encourage uptake of key energy technology solutions for buildings and to hasten the transition to clean energy and reduce the costs involved.
Support energy efficiency measures
Policies need to support energy efficiency measures to make them affordable.
Government support for product improvements and technological innovation can create economy-of-scale advantages and raise industry learning rates to deliver cost-effective efficiency mechanisms. Paired with market signals, including energy performance requirements, efficiency gains can be achieved with little increase to manufacturing costs or consumer prices.
Stimulate financing and market mechanisms
Financing and market mechanisms, as well as innovative business models, are required to accelerate the clean energy transition.
Governments can stimulate action through policy interventions that shape market rules to improve access to financing, de-risk clean energy investment and broaden the availability of market-based instruments that reduce barriers to the transition.
Enhance collaboration
Governments need to collaborate to make sustainable buildings a reality. Institutional capacity and global co-operation need to be expanded to enable the clean energy transition.
Governments can co‑operate to share knowledge, best practices and solutions through multiple initiatives such as the IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes and the IEA Global Exchange for Energy Efficiency.
Buildings technologies
Only lighting and data centres are on track with the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), while building envelopes and heating, inlcuding heat pumps, are well off track.
Cooling and appliances are both showing improvement, but significant policy effort will be needed to put these technologies on the SDS trajectory.
Building envelopes
Two-thirds of countries lacked mandatory building energy codes in 2018, meaning more than 3 billion m2 were built last year without mandatory performance requirements. To be in line with the SDS by 2030: all countries need to move towards mandatory building energy codes, high-performance new construction needs to increase from 250 million m2 to 4 billion m2, and deep energy efficiency renovation of existing stock needs to double to at least a 30-50% energy intensity improvement.
Estimated global buildings construction to 2030
nZEBs Mandatory building energy code Voluntary or without building energy code 2018 299.84 3755.62 3335.17 2025 2942.18 3128.66 1786.91 2030 4006.52 2474.42 1313.99
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Heating
Sales of heat pumps and renewable heating equipment such as solar hot water systems have continued to increase by around 5% per year since 2010, representing 10% of overall sales in 2018. Fossil fuel-based equipment, however, still makes up more than 50% of sales, while less-efficient, conventional electric heating equipment adds another 30%. To be in line with the SDS, the share of heat pumps and renewable heating needs to reach 25% of new sales by 2030.
Heating technology sales
Renewables District heat Heat pumps Conventional electric equipment Fossil fuel equipment 2010 144955 352463 73391 676908 2058485 2011 157960 361794 81826 693358 2060352 2012 168046 368604 97590 720030 2081250 2013 192606 376856 102360 750983 2137516 2014 206295 382360 107510 778733 2208325 2015 214809 391946 114016 808070 2282411 2016 220850 407381 120363 844521 2333366 2017 227575 409252 126698 868416 2380136 2025 470796 530756 441114 1053850 2039797 2030 749850 678565 708184 1136546 1589313
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Note: excludes traditional use of biomass. 2018 estimated.
Cooling
Cooling is the fastest-growing end use in buildings, as its energy demand more than tripled between 1990 and 2018 to around 2 000 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity. While much higher-efficiency air conditioners are currently available, most people purchase new air conditioners that are two to three times less efficient. To put cooling in line with the SDS, standards need to be put in place to improve performance by more than 50% by 2030. This will help cut energy use and emissions from space cooling and limit the capacity additions required to meet peak electricity demand.
Air conditioner seasonal energy performance to 2030
Residential - in use Residential - sales Non-residential - in use Non-residential - sales 1990 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.7 1991 2.6 2.9 2.4 2.7 1992 2.7 3.1 2.5 2.9 1993 2.7 3.2 2.6 2.9 1994 2.8 3.2 2.7 3 1995 2.9 3.2 2.7 3 1996 2.9 3.1 2.7 3 1997 3 3.1 2.8 3 1998 3 3.2 2.8 3.2 1999 3 3.3 2.8 3.1 2000 3.1 3.3 2.9 3.1 2001 3.1 3.3 2.9 3.1 2002 3.1 3.3 2.9 3.1 2003 3.1 3.3 3 3.2 2004 3.2 3.4 3 3.3 2005 3.2 3.6 3 3.4 2006 3.3 3.7 3.1 3.5 2007 3.3 3.8 3.1 3.6 2008 3.4 4 3.2 3.7 2009 3.5 4.1 3.3 3.8 2010 3.6 4.1 3.4 3.8 2011 3.6 4.2 3.4 3.9 2012 3.7 4.1 3.5 3.9 2013 3.8 4.1 3.5 4 2014 3.8 4.1 3.6 4.1 2015 3.9 4.2 3.7 4.2 2016 3.9 4.2 3.7 4.2 2017 4 4.1 3.8 4.2 2018e 4 4.2 3.9 4.3 2019 4.1 4.7 4 5 2020 4.2 4.8 4.1 5.2 2021 4.3 5 4.3 5.4 2022 4.4 5.1 4.4 5.7 2023 4.5 5.2 4.6 5.9 2024 4.6 5.4 4.8 6.1 2025 4.7 5.5 4.9 6.2 2026 4.8 5.6 5.1 6.4 2027 5 5.7 5.3 6.5 2028 5.1 5.8 5.4 6.7 2029 5.2 5.9 5.6 6.8 2030 5.3 6 5.7 6.9
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Lighting
In 2018, LED sales reached a critical milestone, achieving the same share of global residential sales as less-efficient fluorescent lamps (40%). LED deployment is also progressing for commercial lighting and outdoor applications, especially for linear LEDs to replace fluorescent lamps. As LED costs continue to fall, sales of LEDs are on track with the SDS, although continued robust growth is needed to make up over 90% of sales by 2030.
Lighting sales by type
LEDs Fluorescents Other 2010 0.690688105 34.61280451 64.69650739 2011 1.004630434 39.37415888 59.62121069 2012 2.164673975 40.51036133 57.32496469 2013 4.127005866 44.18449574 51.68849839 2014 7.585012225 50.12553362 42.28945416 2015 13.87565533 52.18759758 33.93674709 2016 25.43430602 50.44920078 24.1164932 2017 31.6271149 46.18019073 22.19269438 2018 40.40575877 41.78853767 17.80570356 2025 68.12166139 27.28750395 4.590834664 2030 80.14465501 19.65371644 0.201628549
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Appliances & equipment
Growth in energy use by household appliances shows no signs of decelerating, having reached more than 3 000 TWh in 2018, or nearly 15% of global final electricity demand. Only one-third of appliance energy use today is covered by mandatory performance standards, and coverage is poor in markets that are expected to grow rapidly in the next decade. Consumer electronics, connected devices and other small plug-loads, which are proliferating rapidly, continue to be unregulated in most countries. Expanded policy coverage and increased stringency are needed in all countries to get on track with the SDS.
Consumption by household appliances and plug loads by region
OECD China Other Asia India Rest of world 2000 1240.57 107.11 99.50 49.76 213.31 2001 1271.41 106.94 102.05 50.44 221.26 2002 1308.08 111.59 105.85 54.17 227.65 2003 1341.67 122.79 113.18 56.98 239.00 2004 1379.75 135.19 121.92 58.91 249.33 2005 1444.60 156.27 126.04 61.52 273.94 2006 1479.82 175.02 135.00 67.54 291.12 2007 1520.89 200.31 140.39 70.08 307.54 2008 1569.87 214.55 141.86 74.35 321.20 2009 1546.44 240.31 151.54 79.98 332.76 2010 1557.21 252.09 162.09 91.50 357.88 2011 1549.80 273.20 164.56 100.31 364.14 2012 1542.60 303.41 177.96 107.03 387.08 2013 1552.14 342.52 186.07 114.17 402.70 2014 1572.40 364.84 201.06 123.46 424.51 2015 1563.90 387.06 210.18 138.83 433.06 2016 1610.93 422.40 219.55 156.41 451.22 2017 1618.94 449.75 232.80 169.49 470.40 2018 1626.50 477.03 246.41 181.95 491.05 2025 1678.21 676.49 350.43 251.46 646.17 2030 1718.32 840.25 439.71 305.25 771.64
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Data centres and data transmission networks
As the world becomes increasingly digitalised, data centres and data transmission networks are emerging as an important source of energy demand, each accounting for about 1% of global electricity demand. Despite exponential growth in demand for these services, huge strides in energy efficiency have helped to limit electricity demand growth. Sustained efforts by the ICT industry to improve energy efficiency, as well as government policies to promote best practices, will be critical to keep energy demand in check over the coming decades.
Global trends in internet traffic, data centre workloads, and data centre energy use
Internet traffic Data centre workloads Data centre energy use 2015 100 100 100 2016 138 133 102 2017 182 168 102 2018 237 206 104 2019 312 239 101 2020 404 274 100 2021 519 313 100
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