Renewables 2019
Market analysis and forecast from 2019 to 2024
"Renewables are already the world's second largest source of electricity, but their deployment still needs to accelerate if we are to achieve long-term climate, air quality and energy access goals"
Dr Fatih Birol, Executive Director, IEA
Renewables 2019 is the IEA market analysis and forecast from 2019 to 2024 on renewable energy and technologies. It provides global trends and developments for renewable energy in the electricity, heat and transport sectors.
The analysis this year contains an in-depth look at distributed solar PV, which is set to more than double in capacity in the next five years, accounting for almost half of all solar PV growth. The report assesses the current state of play of distributed solar PV and maps out its huge growth potential in the coming years.
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Solar PV drives strong rebound in renewable capacity additions
Renewable power capacity is set to expand by 50% between 2019 and 2024, led by solar PV. This increase of 1 200 GW is equivalent to the total installed power capacity of the United States today. Solar PV alone accounts for almost 60% of the expected growth, with onshore wind representing one-quarter.
Offshore wind contributes 4% of the increase, with its capacity forecast to triple by 2024, stimulated by competitive auctions in the European Union and expanding markets in China and the United States. Bioenergy capacity grows as much as offshore wind, with the greatest expansions in China, India and the European Union. Hydropower growth slows, although it still accounts for one-tenth of the total increase in renewable capacity.
In Renewables 2019's accelerated case, renewable capacity growth could be 26% (1 500 GW) higher than in the report's main forecast. The accelerated case requires that governments address three main challenges: 1) policy and regulatory uncertainty; 2) high investment risks in developing countries; and 3) system integration of wind and solar in some countries. Solar PV is the single largest source of additional expansion potential, followed by onshore wind and hydropower.
Main case Accelerated case Others 8.790532753 3.012321511 Bioenergy 41.09107158 15.35768667 Offshore wind 43.09883333 11.48723333 Hydropower 120.8201178 36.51094187 Onshore wind 308.7915381 68.23867252 Solar PV 697.4948282 180.4075802
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A more optimistic outlook for the European Union results from higher planned renewables auction volumes and faster distributed solar PV growth in member states to meet renewable energy targets. In the United States, wind and solar PV developers are rushing to complete projects before federal tax incentives end, while corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs) and state-level policies contribute to growth.
Renewables 2018 forecast (2018-23) Renewables 2019 forecast (2019-24) Renewables 2019 accelerated case (2019-24) China 438.2684941 489.3654 580.1422 United States 115.6087792 131.6111787 157.457097 EU 124.4469213 182.2871356 236.8035637 India 106.7995308 112.2645 149.0645 Latin America 50.25481084 45.91474239 54.69960218 Japan 28.5505 38.2485 44.5394 MENA 23.08647052 29.0667522 61.95446267 SSAFR 26.56262588 22.06203166 30.06138171
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Distributed solar PV systems in homes, commercial buildings and industry are set to take off, bringing significant changes in power systems. A rapid rise in the ability of consumers to generate their own electricity presents new opportunities and challenges for electricity providers and policy makers around the world. Distributed PV capacity is forecast to increase 320 GW in the main case, almost half of total PV growth and a similar expansion to onshore wind.
Distributed solar PV takes centre stage
Distributed solar PV systems in homes, commercial buildings and industrial facilities are set to take off, bringing significant changes in power systems. A rapid rise in the ability of consumers to generate their own electricity presents new opportunities and challenges for electricity providers and policy makers around the world. Distributed PV total capacity more than doubles, surpassing 500 GW in the main forecast (and 600 GW in the accelerated case), almost half of total solar PV growth and a similar expansion to onshore wind.
China North America Europe Asia&Pacific Latin America MENA Sub-Saharan Africa Eurasia Others 2019-24 accelerated 185.67 35.43370353 70.25195672 88.74797298 6.493964 6.961298166 2.834139323 5.671484211 4.631313389 2019-24 main 154.12 30.78995617 50.38585311 62.0267504 5.643964 3.315460197 2.140343499 4.887884211 3.716313389 2013-18 48.55 20.42426064 26.7726332 40.8476391 0.952448907 1.787037877 0.592576447 1.49872647 1.042194483 2007-12 2.42 4.19232343 49.71084087 7.496433563 0.051155 0.057181 0.176218 0.55620776 0
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China is forecast to account for almost half of global distributed PV growth, overtaking the European Union to become the world leader in installed capacity as early as 2021. Nevertheless, distributed PV expansion still picks up significantly in the European Union during 2019 24 as the technology becomes more economically attractive and the policy environment improves. While Japan remains a strong market, India and Korea emerge as drivers of capacity growth in Asia. Expansion of distributed solar PV in North America is twice as rapid between 2019 and 2024 as it was between 2013 and 2018, mainly driven by the United States.
Renewable electricity uptake benefits the heat sector
Heat generated from renewable energy is set to expand by one-fifth between 2019 and 2024. Buildings account for over half of global renewable heat growth, followed by industry. China, the European Union, India and the United States are responsible for two-thirds of the global increase in renewable heat consumption over the forecast period. However, renewables’ share of global heat consumption increases only marginally, from 10% today to 12% in 2024. Overall, renewable heating potential remains vastly underexploited and deployment is not in line with global climate targets, calling for greater ambition and stronger policy support.
Industry and agriculture Buildings 2013-18 1232.58 53.14 2019-24 1188.82 462.65 2013-18 252.98 750.95 2019-24 489.02 1090.04 2013-18 4.61 684.45 2019-24 71.47 634.82 2013-18 59.6 222.91 2019-24 21.01 242.05 2013-18 62.61 132.48 2019-24 234.13 153.63
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Renewable electricity used for heat is forecast to rise by more than 40%, a similar increase to that of bioenergy, accounting for one-fifth of global renewable heat consumption by 2024. This growth results mainly from a rising share of renewables in electricity generation and, to a lesser extent, greater electrification of end uses. Modern bioenergy remains by far the largest source of renewable heat by 2024. More than two-thirds of bioenergy growth is forecast to occur in the industry sector, mostly in India, China and the European Union.