The Future of Cooling
Opportunities for energy-efficient air conditioning
"Growing demand for air conditioners is one of the most critical blind spots in today’s energy debate. Setting higher efficiency standards for cooling is one of the easiest steps governments can take to reduce the need for new power plants, cut emissions and reduce costs at the same time."
Fatih Birol, Executive Director, IEA
Cooling down is catching on. As incomes rise and populations grow, especially in the world’s hotter regions, the use of air conditioners is becoming increasingly common. In fact, the use of air conditioners and electric fans already accounts for about a fifth of the total electricity in buildings around the world – or 10% of all global electricity consumption.
Over the next three decades, the use of ACs is set to soar, becoming one of the top drivers of global electricity demand. A new analysis by the International Energy Agency shows how new standards can help the world avoid facing such a “cold crunch” by helping improve efficiency while also staying cool.
Download report Read press release Global Exchange on Efficiency: Cooling
Key findings from the Future of Cooling
Most homes in hot countries have not yet purchased their first AC
Air conditioning today is concentrated in a small number of countries, but AC sales are rising rapidly in emerging economies.
Share of households with AC Japan 91 United States 90 Korea 86 Saudi Arabia 63 China 60 Mexico 16 Brazil 16 Indonesia 9 South Africa 6 India 5
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Cooling is the fastest growing use of energy in buildings
Without action to address energy efficiency, energy demand for space cooling will more than triple by 2050 – consuming as much electricity as all of China and India today.
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The problem is, today's consumers are not buying the most efficient ACs
The average efficiency of air conditioners sold today is less than half of what is typically available on the shelves – and one third of best available technology.
Investing in more efficient ACs could cut future energy demand in half
Our Efficient Cooling Scenario shows that effective policies can double average AC efficiency and reduce cooling energy demand by 45% compared to the Reference Scenario.
Baseline scenario Efficient Cooling Scenario 2016 1996.660574 1996.660574 2020 2199.417037 2053.246885 2025 2691.226086 2199.844226 2030 3287.242464 2345.089438 2035 4004.673375 2574.426387 2040 4756.426482 2844.365019 2045 5536.020683 3149.436413 2050 6204.819676 3406.739123
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Cooling will drive peak electricity demand, especially in hot countries
More efficient ACs can reduce the need for new power plants to meet peak power demand, especially at night.
2016 2050 Baseline Scenario 2050 Efficient Cooling Scenario United States 29.0219848 32.5562967 22.5861825 China 16.4957448 17.2104867 12.7621621 Korea 16.1978543 19.0480282 15.5571104 Middle East 16.0921498 31.4463222 13.260996 Indonesia 14.9752196 40.7116338 30.2417392 India 10.5496596 44.076378 19.3479597 Mexico 10.1647384 24.3287559 15.1370383 Brazil 7.5810538 30.7870366 20.472256 South Africa 1.8759042 5.4137387 2.5552905
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The Future of Cooling is the second IEA report that focuses on "blind spots" of the global energy system, following the The Future of Trucks, which was released in July 2017. The next one in this series – The Future of Petrochemicals – will examine ways to build a more sustainable petrochemical industry. It will be released in September.
Download the Report (92 pages) Read the press release Global Exchange on Efficiency: Cooling