Technology approach

In ETP 2017, the definition of technologies "available and in the innovation pipeline" includes those technologies that are commercially available, or at the stage of development that makes commercial-scale deployment possible within the 2015-60 scenario period. This includes:

• Existing commercial BATs, for example, solar thermal and heat pumping technologies for space and water heating, LEDs for lighting, high-performance windows (e.g. low-emissivity, double- or triple-glaze), high-performance insulation, green or cool roofs, thermal energy storage, enhanced catalytic and biomass-based processes for chemical production, onshore wind, offshore wind, solar PV, STE, hydropower, geothermal (direct, flash), nuclear power, large-scale electric heat pumps, and conventional biodiesel and bioethanol.

• Technologies in demonstration phase (technologies that have been proven, and have sufficient techno-economic data available to be assumed to be commercially available within the time horizon of the model), for example, high-performance heat pumping technologies, high-efficacy (e.g. greater than 150 lumens/Watt) LED lighting, aerosol-based whole building envelope air sealing, advanced building insulation (aerogel, vacuum insulated panel, phase change materials), whole-building renovation solutions, zero-emission fuels for transport, upgraded smelt reduction and direct reduced iron, coal-fired integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), coal-fired IGCC with CO2 capture, coal-fired power plant with post-combustion CO2 capture, conventional bioethanol with CO2 capture, advanced biodiesel, large-scale hydrogen electrolysis, and hydrogen from natural gas with CO2 capture.

• Technologies in pilot testing, for example, “smart” building technologies and intelligent controls, dynamic solar control, hybrid heat pumps, fuel cells and hydrogen‐ready equipment, inert anodes for aluminium smelting, oxy-fuelled coal power plants with CO2 capture, gas-fired power plants with CO2 capture, biomass integrated gasification combined cycle (BIGCC), wave energy, tidal stream, tidal lagoon, enhanced geothermal energy systems, advanced biodiesel with CO2 capture, hydrogen from biomass gasification, and biofuels from algae.

• Technologies under development, for example, solar cooling solutions, vacuum insulated panels for refrigeration and building envelopes, thermoelectric cooling using heat pumps, full oxy-fuelling kilns for clinker production, BIGCC with CO2 capture, and hydrogen from coal and biomass with CO2 capture.

• Technologies with incremental improvements of performances compared with today’s BATs (may not be available yet but can be envisaged to be available within the time frame of scenarios), for example, high-performance appliances in buildings, improved controls of cooling and heating (smart thermostats), advanced district energy networks, low rolling resistance tyres, vehicle design improvements that reduce energy needs, and energy intensity improvements towards BAT in industrial process technologies.

• Supporting infrastructure to facilitate the uptake of improved and newly demonstrated technologies, for example, low-temperature distribution, high-performance district energy networks, smart grids with intelligent demand-side response, transport and storage infrastructure to support CCS, and EV charging infrastructure.

Some technology options are not available within the model until later time periods, depending on their current level of readiness, and some have constraints to account for process-specific limitations to deployment. See the sectoral chapters for more detailed discussion of technologies included in the ETP 2017 analysis.

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