Africa Energy Outlook 2019
Africa’s energy future matters for the world
Africa Energy Outlook 2019 is the IEA’s most comprehensive and detailed work to date on energy across the African continent, with a particular emphasis on sub-Saharan Africa. It includes detailed energy profiles of 11 countries that represent three-quarters of the region’s gross domestic product and energy demand, including Nigeria, South Africa, Ethiopia, Kenya and Ghana.
Download report Press release Presentation
South Africa key indicators and policy initiatives
Stated Policies | Africa Case | CAAGR 2018-40 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2000 | 2018 | 2030 | 2040 | 2030 | 2040 | STEPS | AC | |
GDP ($2018 billion, PPP) | 491 | 789 | 1010 | 1348 | 1174 | 1600 | 2.5% | 3.3% |
Population (million) | 46 | 57 | 66 | 71 | 66 | 71 | 1.0% | 1.0% |
• with electricity access | 77% | 95% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
• with access to clean cooking | 56% | 87% | 90% | 93% | 100% | 100% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
CO2 emissions (Mt CO2) | 280 | 420 | 321 | 279 | 289 | 187 | -1.8% | -3.6% |
Note: STEPS = Stated Policies Scenario and AC = Africa Case
Policy | Key targets and measures |
---|---|
Performance targets |
|
Industrial development targets |
|
The economy could double in the AC with less primary energy demand compared to today by increasing the share of renewables and gas in the energy mix.
In the AC, the role of coal in South African industry and power generation is already decreasing, while that of gas and renewables is increasing.
South Africa key energy indicators
Coal Oil Gas Hydro Solar PV Other low-carbon Bioenergy GDP (right axis) GDP (right axis) 2010 100.545463 17.6799671 3.96819873 0.181772 0 3.2215491 6.61143 689.876 2018 99.182437 18.76718241 4.017288462 0.0611666 0.259906 4.7342022 6.764700411 789.423 2030 81.665093 24.9197564 5.38995565 0.256862 1.90083 8.342662175 10.21648588 1009.97 2040 67.61281 29.5647773 7.60764056 0.490805 3.54524 16.80450948 13.16507974 1348.39 2010 100.545463 17.6799671 3.96819873 0.181772 0 3.2215491 6.61143 689.876 2018 99.182437 18.76718241 4.017288462 0.0611666 0.259906 4.7342022 6.764700411 789.423 2030 76.473227 22.74579037 5.524265978 0.257275 2.10211 9.68373223 8.937591654 1174.48 2040 50.9704065 21.96914328 10.34249206 0.49097 4.09492 21.4588544 13.10150151 1599.96
{"chart":{"type":"column"},"plotOptions":{"column":{"stacking":"normal"}},"xAxis":{"type":"category","plotLines":[{"value":-0.5,"width":1,"dashStyle":"shortDash","label":{"text":"Stated Policies","rotation":90}},{"value":3.5,"width":1,"dashStyle":"shortDash","label":{"text":"Africa Case","rotation":90}}]},"yAxis":[{"title":{"text":"Mtoe"},"tickInterval":50,"reversedStacks":false,"alignTicks":false},{"title":{"text":"billion dollars (2018)"},"opposite":true,"tickInterval":500,"alignTicks":false,"gridLineWidth":0}],"title":{"text":"South Africa primary energy demand and GDP"},"tooltip":{"valueSuffix":" Mtoe","valueDecimals":0},"series":[{"colorIndex":7},{"colorIndex":6},{"colorIndex":2},{"colorIndex":3},{"colorIndex":8},{"colorIndex":5},{"colorIndex":0},{"colorIndex":4,"type":"line","yAxis":1,"tooltip":{"valueSuffix":" billion","valuePrefix":"$","valueDecimals":0}},{"colorIndex":4,"type":"line","yAxis":1,"showInLegend":false,"linkedTo":":previous","tooltip":{"valueSuffix":" billion","valuePrefix":"$","valueDecimals":0}}]}
Coal Oil Back-up generators Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar PV Bioenergy Other renewables Coal Oil Back-up generators Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar PV Bioenergy Other renewables 2010 241.942 0.197 2.228064715 0 12.099 2.114 0.034 0 0.262 -5.77316E-15 2011 243.524 0.197 2.250258597 0 13.502 2.057 0.037 0 0.259 3.77476E-14 2012 241.264 0.194 2.175528885 0 11.954 1.205 0.037 0 0.259 2.88658E-14 2013 237.42 0.192 2.16343672 0 14.106 1.159 0.01 0.046 0.259 0 2014 232.068 0.189 2.149157121 0 13.794 0.975 1.1 1.086 0.259 1.33227E-14 2015 228.383 0.183 2.131095811 0 12.237 0.801 2.5 2.183 0.259 0.19 2016 226.485 0.183 2.11961983 0 15.026 0.7 3.7 2.6 0.259 0.5 2017 226.71 0.183 2.137702554 0 14.193 0.871 5.09 2.634 0.297 0.676 2018 227.912 0.18397 2.444666135 0 14.2682 0.711296 6.7336 3.02233 0.31024 0.992844 2019 227.568 0.184167 2.12338693 0.68451 14.2682 0.965105 6.68347 3.40929 0.538243 1.15839 2020 223.598 0.332786 2.083063256 1.226 14.3022 1.24221 7.48503 4.10133 0.707624 1.2871 2021 222.194 0.332818 2.041159671 1.65276 14.1323 1.48079 9.01983 4.79276 0.874026 1.2871 2022 221.212 0.33287 1.99984008 2.07953 14.1054 1.53612 10.5793 5.18203 1.03531 1.2871 2023 220.589 0.332945 1.953107206 2.59676 14.1054 1.59198 11.331 5.36395 1.25742 1.45749 2024 221.809 0.333035 1.903529797 3.13041 14.1054 1.59916 11.3551 5.61376 1.35385 1.589990001 2025 220.745 0.333146 1.856550545 4.05558 14.1054 1.78806 12.2122 6.95823 2.17753 1.59391341 2026 214.291 0.306987 1.811120782 5.38193 14.1054 1.99954 16.1192 9.63022 3.49453 1.6022729 2027 206.117 0.30713 1.768059386 6.27841 14.1054 2.21971 22.3092 12.7142 4.80363 1.6116464 2028 197.788 0.307289 1.723504233 7.14352 14.1054 2.45163 28.7811 15.832 6.09782 1.6221208 2029 189.296 0.307426 1.677634747 8.31901 14.1054 2.73397 35.3547 18.9669 7.3762 1.6337806 2030 181.097 0.307512 1.630206787 9.74245 14.1054 2.98724 42.0249 22.1063 8.63857 1.6467055 2031 174.603 0.307548 1.581690988 11.1422 14.1054 3.21396 47.7456 24.8228 9.60154 1.8013222 2032 170.146 0.307154 1.530876578 12.7211 14.1054 3.44803 52.1182 26.9456 10.3792 2.1941953 2033 164.212 0.306735 1.477740268 13.9635 17.1768 3.69308 55.6994 28.6884 11.1461 2.8324034 2034 163.672 0.302616 1.421963871 15.0354 16.2671 3.94898 58.64 30.1413 11.8877 3.578484 2035 163.3 0.302158 1.363434206 16.5442 15.3574 4.2158 61.3612 31.5132 12.6118 4.32021 2036 156.493 0.29784 1.30237447 17.7889 21.5003 4.49347 64.1264 32.9237 13.3212 5.082548 2037 152 0.289648 1.237785496 19.3043 24.5718 4.78186 67.3608 34.5224 14.0112 5.885745 2038 150.36 0.280656 1.170116905 20.756 24.5718 5.08024 71.2328 36.3978 14.6848 6.727271 2039 147.421 0.275977 1.09648004 22.0464 24.5718 5.38814 75.9135 38.6222 15.3449 7.603478 2040 142.926 0.27529 1.017236153 23.2782 24.5718 5.70799 81.4076 41.2308 15.9867 8.675088 2010 241.942 0.197 2.228064715 0 12.099 2.114 0.034 0 0.262 0 2011 243.524 0.197 2.250258597 0 13.502 2.057 0.037 0 0.259 0 2012 241.264 0.194 2.175528885 0 11.954 1.205 0.037 0 0.259 0 2013 237.42 0.192 2.16343672 0 14.106 1.159 0.01 0.046 0.259 0 2014 232.068 0.189 2.149157121 0 13.794 0.975 1.1 1.086 0.259 1.33227E-14 2015 228.383 0.183 2.131095811 0 12.237 0.801 2.5 2.183 0.259 0.19 2016 226.485 0.183 2.11961983 0 15.026 0.7 3.7 2.6 0.259 0.5 2017 226.71 0.183 2.137702554 0 14.193 0.871 5.09 2.634 0.297 0.676 2018 227.912 0.18397 2.444666135 0 14.2682 0.711296 6.7336 3.02233 0.31024 0.992844 2019 227.193 0.183945 2.098464548 0.476635 14.2682 0.96511 6.68312 3.50055 0.541801 1.15839 2020 226.583 0.331982 2.032503469 0.810251 14.3022 1.24224 7.48442 4.35568 0.722114 1.2871 2021 223.62 0.301654 1.964231543 1.42002 14.1323 1.48089 9.01941 5.08853 0.890046 1.38605 2022 221.094 0.301309 1.895681742 1.90083 14.1054 1.53639 10.5794 5.5968 1.05374 1.56452 2023 218.695 0.297136 1.821140502 2.44271 14.1054 1.59257 11.7024 6.05443 1.2787 1.93483 2024 217.4 0.289129 1.743119983 3.05361 14.1054 1.60022 12.8176 6.58384 1.37108 2.40005 2025 212.217 0.280357 1.666552682 3.88175 14.1054 1.78968 16.0764 8.36793 2.19582 2.59649641 2026 202.629 0.275893 1.590252394 5.02037 14.1054 2.00187 21.528 11.3669 3.51237 2.75914559 2027 192.846 0.275658 1.514675079 5.99588 14.1054 2.22285 27.505 14.5454 4.82126 3.03868999 2028 182.701 0.275439 1.436253528 7.09677 14.1054 2.45561 33.384 17.7961 6.11533 3.3157334 2029 172.658 0.27519 1.355012681 8.4462 14.1054 2.73854 39.1048 21.1011 7.39363 3.59045 2030 163.181 0.274878 1.270602349 10.133 14.1054 2.99204 44.6776 24.4472 8.65594 3.8630052 2031 155.378 0.274907 1.183202948 11.6731 14.1054 3.21871 49.7009 27.6066 9.61883 4.1849907 2032 148.999 0.274903 1.091690674 13.4177 14.1054 3.45266 54.0378 30.486 10.3965 4.6004676 2033 140.768 0.274867 0.995868442 14.8334 17.1768 3.69753 58.0237 33.0983 11.1634 5.1244361 2034 137.461 0.274803 0.895310586 15.9653 16.2671 3.95317 61.8111 35.4191 11.905 5.7093343 2035 132.99 0.274717 0.789711892 18.7268 15.3574 4.21972 65.5965 37.5614 12.629 6.3081024 2036 123.28 0.274618 0.67889733 19.6865 21.5003 4.49707 69.4533 39.5824 13.3384 6.9309955 2037 111.755 0.274497 0.56198307 25.7503 24.5718 4.78515 73.5489 41.5575 14.0285 7.5872978 2038 104.033 0.274362 0.438793839 27.981 27.6433 5.08315 77.9642 43.5355 14.702 8.2774283 2039 92.4461 0.274248 0.307915628 32.6824 30.7148 5.3905 82.7437 45.5493 15.3622 9.0026614 2040 81.9553 0.273938 0.169539359 35.1512 33.7862 5.7099 87.8707 47.6236 16.0039 9.931363
{"chart":{"type":"area"},"plotOptions":{"area":{"stacking":"normal","marker":{"enabled":false}}},"title":{"text":"South Africa electricity generation by technology"},"xAxis":{"type":"category","tickPositions":[0,5,10,15,20,25,30,36,41,46,51,56,61,66,71,76,81],"plotLines":[{"value":-0.5,"width":1,"dashStyle":"shortDash","label":{"text":"Stated Policies","rotation":90}},{"value":30.5,"width":1,"dashStyle":"shortDash","label":{"text":"Africa Case","rotation":90}}]},"yAxis":{"reversedStacks":false,"title":{"text":"TWh"}},"tooltip":{"valueSuffix":" TWh","valueDecimals":1},"series":[{"colorIndex":7,"id":"coal"},{"colorIndex":6,"id":"oil"},{"colorIndex":4,"id":"backup"},{"colorIndex":2,"id":"gas"},{"colorIndex":1,"id":"nuclear"},{"colorIndex":3,"id":"hydro"},{"colorIndex":9,"id":"wind"},{"colorIndex":8,"id":"solar"},{"colorIndex":0,"id":"bioenergy"},{"colorIndex":5,"id":"other"},{"colorIndex":7,"linkedTo":"coal","showInLegend":false},{"colorIndex":6,"linkedTo":"oil","showInLegend":false},{"colorIndex":4,"linkedTo":"backup","showInLegend":false},{"colorIndex":2,"linkedTo":"gas","showInLegend":false}, {"colorIndex":1,"linkedTo":"nuclear","showInLegend":false}, {"colorIndex":3,"linkedTo":"hydro","showInLegend":false},{"colorIndex":9,"linkedTo":"wind","showInLegend":false},{"colorIndex":8,"linkedTo":"solar","showInLegend":false},{"colorIndex":0,"linkedTo":"bioenergy","showInLegend":false},{"colorIndex":5,"linkedTo":"other","showInLegend":false}]}
South Africa is reliant on coal but is making efforts to diversify as its coal-fired fleet is ageing; new projects will not fully compensate for the decline of the existing fleet.
The government is focussing on diversifying the power mix by introducing natural gas and renewables, including concentrating solar power (CSP); South Africa has excellent natural resources for CSP development.

South Africa has a well-developed electricity network and one of the highest rates of electricity access in sub-Saharan Africa.
The least-cost way to connect those without access is in most cases via the grid (81%) with the residual population served by mini-grids (12%) and stand-alone systems.
South Africa policy opportunities
Diversifying energy supply away from coal would have many benefits, including a reduction in the number of premature deaths from pollution, but the social implications of changes would need careful management.
Reforming and restructuring ESKOM would strengthen the reliably of the power system, support increased industrialisation and help efforts to diversify the energy mix.
Strengthening efficiency throughout the economy would reduce demand for both materials and energy, while the implementation of minimum energy performance standards for electric motors in the industry and mining sectors would be an important first step towards unlocking further efficiency gains.