Africa Energy Outlook 2019

Africa’s energy future matters for the world

Africa Energy Outlook 2019 is the IEA’s most comprehensive and detailed work to date on energy across the African continent, with a particular emphasis on sub-Saharan Africa. It includes detailed energy profiles of 11 countries that represent three-quarters of the region’s gross domestic product and energy demand, including Nigeria, South Africa, Ethiopia, Kenya and Ghana.

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South Africa key indicators and policy initiatives

  Stated Policies Africa Case CAAGR 2018-40
  2000 2018 2030 2040 2030 2040 STEPS AC
 GDP ($2018 billion, PPP)  491  789  1010  1348  1174  1600 2.5% 3.3%
 Population (million)  46  57  66  71  66  71 1.0% 1.0%
• with electricity access 77% 95% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0.2% 0.2%
• with access to clean cooking 56% 87% 90% 93% 100% 100% 0.3% 0.7%
 CO2 emissions (Mt CO2)  280  420  321  279  289  187 -1.8% -3.6%

Note: STEPS = Stated Policies Scenario and AC = Africa Case
Policy Key targets and measures
Performance targets
  • The National Development Plan 2030 envisages that adequate investment in energy infrastructure will promote economic growth and development.
  • Decommission 35 GW (of 42 GW currently operating) of coal-fired power capacity and supply at least 20 GW of the additional 29 GW of electricity needed by 2030 from renewables and natural gas.
Industrial development targets
  • Secure primary steel production capability and support the downstream steel sector.
  • Automotive Masterplan 2020: raise domestic vehicle production to 1% of global output including building 20% hybrid electric vehicles by 2030.

The economy could double in the AC with less primary energy demand compared to today by increasing the share of renewables and gas in the energy mix.

In the AC, the role of coal in South African industry and power generation is already decreasing, while that of gas and renewables is increasing.

 

South Africa key energy indicators

	Coal	Oil	Gas	Hydro	Solar PV	Other low-carbon	Bioenergy   	GDP (right axis)	GDP (right axis)
2010	100.545463	17.6799671	3.96819873	0.181772	0	3.2215491	6.61143	689.876	
2018	99.182437	18.76718241	4.017288462	0.0611666	0.259906	4.7342022	6.764700411	789.423	
2030	81.665093	24.9197564	5.38995565	0.256862	1.90083	8.342662175	10.21648588	1009.97	
2040	67.61281	29.5647773	7.60764056	0.490805	3.54524	16.80450948	13.16507974	1348.39	
2010	100.545463	17.6799671	3.96819873	0.181772	0	3.2215491	6.61143		689.876
2018	99.182437	18.76718241	4.017288462	0.0611666	0.259906	4.7342022	6.764700411		789.423
2030	76.473227	22.74579037	5.524265978	0.257275	2.10211	9.68373223	8.937591654		1174.48
2040	50.9704065	21.96914328	10.34249206	0.49097	4.09492	21.4588544	13.10150151		1599.96

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	Coal	Oil	Back-up generators	Gas	Nuclear	Hydro	Wind	Solar PV	Bioenergy	Other renewables	Coal	Oil	Back-up generators	Gas	Nuclear	Hydro	Wind	Solar PV	Bioenergy	Other renewables
2010	241.942	0.197	2.228064715	0	12.099	2.114	0.034	0	0.262	-5.77316E-15										
2011	243.524	0.197	2.250258597	0	13.502	2.057	0.037	0	0.259	3.77476E-14										
2012	241.264	0.194	2.175528885	0	11.954	1.205	0.037	0	0.259	2.88658E-14										
2013	237.42	0.192	2.16343672	0	14.106	1.159	0.01	0.046	0.259	0										
2014	232.068	0.189	2.149157121	0	13.794	0.975	1.1	1.086	0.259	1.33227E-14										
2015	228.383	0.183	2.131095811	0	12.237	0.801	2.5	2.183	0.259	0.19										
2016	226.485	0.183	2.11961983	0	15.026	0.7	3.7	2.6	0.259	0.5										
2017	226.71	0.183	2.137702554	0	14.193	0.871	5.09	2.634	0.297	0.676										
2018	227.912	0.18397	2.444666135	0	14.2682	0.711296	6.7336	3.02233	0.31024	0.992844										
2019	227.568	0.184167	2.12338693	0.68451	14.2682	0.965105	6.68347	3.40929	0.538243	1.15839										
2020	223.598	0.332786	2.083063256	1.226	14.3022	1.24221	7.48503	4.10133	0.707624	1.2871										
2021	222.194	0.332818	2.041159671	1.65276	14.1323	1.48079	9.01983	4.79276	0.874026	1.2871										
2022	221.212	0.33287	1.99984008	2.07953	14.1054	1.53612	10.5793	5.18203	1.03531	1.2871										
2023	220.589	0.332945	1.953107206	2.59676	14.1054	1.59198	11.331	5.36395	1.25742	1.45749										
2024	221.809	0.333035	1.903529797	3.13041	14.1054	1.59916	11.3551	5.61376	1.35385	1.589990001										
2025	220.745	0.333146	1.856550545	4.05558	14.1054	1.78806	12.2122	6.95823	2.17753	1.59391341										
2026	214.291	0.306987	1.811120782	5.38193	14.1054	1.99954	16.1192	9.63022	3.49453	1.6022729										
2027	206.117	0.30713	1.768059386	6.27841	14.1054	2.21971	22.3092	12.7142	4.80363	1.6116464										
2028	197.788	0.307289	1.723504233	7.14352	14.1054	2.45163	28.7811	15.832	6.09782	1.6221208										
2029	189.296	0.307426	1.677634747	8.31901	14.1054	2.73397	35.3547	18.9669	7.3762	1.6337806										
2030	181.097	0.307512	1.630206787	9.74245	14.1054	2.98724	42.0249	22.1063	8.63857	1.6467055										
2031	174.603	0.307548	1.581690988	11.1422	14.1054	3.21396	47.7456	24.8228	9.60154	1.8013222										
2032	170.146	0.307154	1.530876578	12.7211	14.1054	3.44803	52.1182	26.9456	10.3792	2.1941953										
2033	164.212	0.306735	1.477740268	13.9635	17.1768	3.69308	55.6994	28.6884	11.1461	2.8324034										
2034	163.672	0.302616	1.421963871	15.0354	16.2671	3.94898	58.64	30.1413	11.8877	3.578484										
2035	163.3	0.302158	1.363434206	16.5442	15.3574	4.2158	61.3612	31.5132	12.6118	4.32021										
2036	156.493	0.29784	1.30237447	17.7889	21.5003	4.49347	64.1264	32.9237	13.3212	5.082548										
2037	152	0.289648	1.237785496	19.3043	24.5718	4.78186	67.3608	34.5224	14.0112	5.885745										
2038	150.36	0.280656	1.170116905	20.756	24.5718	5.08024	71.2328	36.3978	14.6848	6.727271										
2039	147.421	0.275977	1.09648004	22.0464	24.5718	5.38814	75.9135	38.6222	15.3449	7.603478										
2040	142.926	0.27529	1.017236153	23.2782	24.5718	5.70799	81.4076	41.2308	15.9867	8.675088										
2010											241.942	0.197	2.228064715	0	12.099	2.114	0.034	0	0.262	0
2011											243.524	0.197	2.250258597	0	13.502	2.057	0.037	0	0.259	0
2012											241.264	0.194	2.175528885	0	11.954	1.205	0.037	0	0.259	0
2013											237.42	0.192	2.16343672	0	14.106	1.159	0.01	0.046	0.259	0
2014											232.068	0.189	2.149157121	0	13.794	0.975	1.1	1.086	0.259	1.33227E-14
2015											228.383	0.183	2.131095811	0	12.237	0.801	2.5	2.183	0.259	0.19
2016											226.485	0.183	2.11961983	0	15.026	0.7	3.7	2.6	0.259	0.5
2017											226.71	0.183	2.137702554	0	14.193	0.871	5.09	2.634	0.297	0.676
2018											227.912	0.18397	2.444666135	0	14.2682	0.711296	6.7336	3.02233	0.31024	0.992844
2019											227.193	0.183945	2.098464548	0.476635	14.2682	0.96511	6.68312	3.50055	0.541801	1.15839
2020											226.583	0.331982	2.032503469	0.810251	14.3022	1.24224	7.48442	4.35568	0.722114	1.2871
2021											223.62	0.301654	1.964231543	1.42002	14.1323	1.48089	9.01941	5.08853	0.890046	1.38605
2022											221.094	0.301309	1.895681742	1.90083	14.1054	1.53639	10.5794	5.5968	1.05374	1.56452
2023											218.695	0.297136	1.821140502	2.44271	14.1054	1.59257	11.7024	6.05443	1.2787	1.93483
2024											217.4	0.289129	1.743119983	3.05361	14.1054	1.60022	12.8176	6.58384	1.37108	2.40005
2025											212.217	0.280357	1.666552682	3.88175	14.1054	1.78968	16.0764	8.36793	2.19582	2.59649641
2026											202.629	0.275893	1.590252394	5.02037	14.1054	2.00187	21.528	11.3669	3.51237	2.75914559
2027											192.846	0.275658	1.514675079	5.99588	14.1054	2.22285	27.505	14.5454	4.82126	3.03868999
2028											182.701	0.275439	1.436253528	7.09677	14.1054	2.45561	33.384	17.7961	6.11533	3.3157334
2029											172.658	0.27519	1.355012681	8.4462	14.1054	2.73854	39.1048	21.1011	7.39363	3.59045
2030											163.181	0.274878	1.270602349	10.133	14.1054	2.99204	44.6776	24.4472	8.65594	3.8630052
2031											155.378	0.274907	1.183202948	11.6731	14.1054	3.21871	49.7009	27.6066	9.61883	4.1849907
2032											148.999	0.274903	1.091690674	13.4177	14.1054	3.45266	54.0378	30.486	10.3965	4.6004676
2033											140.768	0.274867	0.995868442	14.8334	17.1768	3.69753	58.0237	33.0983	11.1634	5.1244361
2034											137.461	0.274803	0.895310586	15.9653	16.2671	3.95317	61.8111	35.4191	11.905	5.7093343
2035											132.99	0.274717	0.789711892	18.7268	15.3574	4.21972	65.5965	37.5614	12.629	6.3081024
2036											123.28	0.274618	0.67889733	19.6865	21.5003	4.49707	69.4533	39.5824	13.3384	6.9309955
2037											111.755	0.274497	0.56198307	25.7503	24.5718	4.78515	73.5489	41.5575	14.0285	7.5872978
2038											104.033	0.274362	0.438793839	27.981	27.6433	5.08315	77.9642	43.5355	14.702	8.2774283
2039											92.4461	0.274248	0.307915628	32.6824	30.7148	5.3905	82.7437	45.5493	15.3622	9.0026614
2040											81.9553	0.273938	0.169539359	35.1512	33.7862	5.7099	87.8707	47.6236	16.0039	9.931363

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South Africa is reliant on coal but is making efforts to diversify as its coal-fired fleet is ageing; new projects will not fully compensate for the decline of the existing fleet.

The government is focussing on diversifying the power mix by introducing natural gas and renewables, including concentrating solar power (CSP); South Africa has excellent natural resources for CSP development.

South Africa electricity access solutions by type in the Africa Case

South Africa has a well-developed electricity network and one of the highest rates of electricity access in sub-Saharan Africa.

The least-cost way to connect those without access is in most cases via the grid (81%) with the residual population served by mini-grids (12%) and stand-alone systems.


 

Oil is the largest fuel in the end-use sectors; more stringent fuel economy standards would mean that a 25% increase in demand could be met with a slight increase in the amount of oil used.

The role of coal in South African industry dwindles in the AC as gas and bioenergy are increasingly used, especially in steel production and in light industries.

	Charcoal 	Other solid biomass	Coal and kerosene	Improved cookstoves	LPG	Electricity, gas, biogas and biofuels
2018	0	5	2.325823041	0	1.734072169	48.07448677
Stated Policies 2030	0	4	1.97	0.01	2.44	56.80
Africa Case 2030	0	0	0.00	1.52	4.62	59.47

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In both urban and rural areas, electricity is the favourite option for cooking in South Africa, but more than 4 million living mainly in rural areas continue to use fuelwood for heating and cooking in 2030 in the STEPS.

Improved cookstoves and LPG would help close the gap between the STEPS and the AC and eliminate the use of traditional biomass, reducing household premature deaths by 80% in 2030.

South Africa fossil fuel demand and production
	Demand in the Stated Policies Case	Demand in the Africa Case	Production in the Stated Policies Case	Production in the Africa Case
2010	4.857906806	4.857906806	1.5432	1.5432
2011	4.68851038	4.68851038	1.3617	1.3617
2012	4.936648414	4.936648414	1.1797	1.1797
2013	5.004745226	5.004745226	1.2655	1.2655
2014	4.823346641	4.823346641	1.0724	1.0724
2015	5.315102179	5.315102179	1.2547	1.2547
2016	5.399243921	5.399243921	1.1261	1.1261
2017	5.203167698	5.203167698	0.9008	0.9008
2018	4.918004287	4.918004287	0.901	0.901
2019	4.944402966	4.690092381		
2020	5.079070067	4.713485177		
2021	5.086930656	4.769934341		
2022	5.110430318	4.823055237		
2023	5.163911565	4.915141927		
2024				
2025			2.1936	3.1743
2026				
2027				
2028				
2029				
2030	6.598432778	6.762859517	4.4801	5.3535
2031				
2032				
2033				
2034				
2035	7.909945902	8.764659766	6.011	7.0263
2036				
2037				
2038				
2039				
2040	9.313350314	12.66139291	7.4838	8.9399

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	Demand in the Stated Policies Case	Demand in the Africa Case	Production in the Stated Policies Case	Production in the Africa Case
2010	143.6364902	143.6364902	205.634	205.634
2011	140.5994951	140.5994951	203.891	203.891
2012	138.6220858	138.6220858	208.587	208.587
2013	136.8427567	136.8427567	207.192	207.192
2014	145.4437118	145.4437118	210.59	210.59
2015	134.5158736	134.5158736	206.475	206.475
2016	140.1172891	140.1172891	206.506	206.506
2017	140.2941238	140.2941238	207.698	207.698
2018	141.6892529	141.6892529	209.383	209.383
2019	140.1888928	141.5102849		
2020	137.5781487	140.1286452		
2021	135.9464214	137.807228		
2022	135.0415072	136.1180972		
2023	134.3027627	134.2479561		
2024				
2025			198.014	196.382
2026				
2027				
2028				
2029				
2030	116.664402	109.2474445	173.824	170.593
2031				
2032				
2033				
2034				
2035	107.472496	94.61728912	175.72	163.463
2036				
2037				
2038				
2039				
2040	96.58972461	72.81474503	172.539	148.319

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	Demand in the Stated Policies Case	Demand in the Africa Case	Production in the Stated Policies Case	Production in the Africa Case
2010	0.497573	0.497573	0.089	0.089
2011	0.53321	0.53321	0.1062	0.1062
2012	0.5120101	0.5120101	0.1035	0.1035
2013	0.5375808	0.5375808	0.1063	0.1063
2014	0.517119	0.517119	0.1064	0.1064
2015	0.5387949	0.5387949	0.1113	0.1113
2016	0.516037	0.516037	0.1117	0.1117
2017	0.538146	0.538146	0.1082	0.1082
2018	0.537388036	0.537388036	0.1116	0.1116
2019	0.576061558	0.576852661		
2020	0.584898834	0.585571131		
2021	0.59172093	0.590266908		
2022	0.596209286	0.592956647		
2023	0.601361827	0.59560697		
2024				
2025			0.1408	0.1548
2026				
2027				
2028				
2029				
2030	0.64410795	0.60166476	0.1709	0.1857
2031				
2032				
2033				
2034				
2035	0.680177685	0.590465238	0.1959	0.2105
2036				
2037				
2038				
2039				
2040	0.717676134	0.56478164	0.2132	0.2334

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South Africa continues to dominate coal production in Africa. Despite declining production, falling domestic demand boosts export volumes in both scenarios.

South Africa also relies on oil and gas for its energy needs, but recent gas discoveries could reduce its import needs.

	Production: oil	Production: gas	Power: fossil fuels	Power: renewables	Power: networks	Power: other	Access to electricity	Access to clean cooking
Stated Policies	1.4577	7.5507	36.74189602	73.79712186	73.03534962	12.697086	10.32935291	0.025864855
Africa Case	1.565	9.6351	23.53970824	79.17807899	66.65673986	18.852898	12.74112535	0.154946082

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Nearly $220 billion of cumulative energy investment is needed in the STEPS, with renewables and electricity networks accounting for the majority.

The AC requires more investment in gas production, but overall efficiency improvements moderate the additional spending needs.

South Africa policy opportunities

Diversifying energy supply away from coal would have many benefits, including a reduction in the number of premature deaths from pollution, but the social implications of changes would need careful management.

Reforming and restructuring ESKOM would strengthen the reliably of the power system, support increased industrialisation and help efforts to diversify the energy mix.

Strengthening efficiency throughout the economy would reduce demand for both materials and energy, while the implementation of minimum energy performance standards for electric motors in the industry and mining sectors would be an important first step towards unlocking further efficiency gains.