Africa Energy Outlook 2019

Africa’s energy future matters for the world

Africa Energy Outlook 2019 is the IEA’s most comprehensive and detailed work to date on energy across the African continent, with a particular emphasis on sub-Saharan Africa. It includes detailed energy profiles of 11 countries that represent three-quarters of the region’s gross domestic product and energy demand, including Nigeria, South Africa, Ethiopia, Kenya and Ghana.

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Nigeria key indicators and policy initiatives


  Stated Policies Africa Case CAAGR 2018-40
  2000 2018 2030 2040 2030 2040 STEPS AC
 GDP ($2018 billion, PPP)  392  1169  1636  2420  2258  3678 3.4% 5.3%
 Population (million)  122  196  263  329  263  329 2.4% 2.4%
• with electricity access 40% 60% 80% 85% 100% 100% 1.6% 2.3%
• with access to clean cooking 1% 10% 28% 38% 100% 100% 6.4% 11.2%
 CO2 emissions (Mt CO2)  37  83  134  191  181  257 3.8% 5.3%

Note: STEPS = Stated Policies Scenario and AC = Africa Case
Policy Key targets and measures
Performance targets
  • 20% (unconditional) to 45% (conditional) reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 compared to the business-as-usual scenario.
  • Increase oil production to 2.5 mb/d and become a net exporter by 2020, and end gas flaring by 2030.
Industrial development targets
  • Dedicate at least 30% of the federal budget to capital expenditure.
  • Achieve GDP growth of 7% and create over 15 million jobs by 2020 and double manufacturing output to 20% of GDP by 2025.

Nigeria remains Africa’s largest economy: in the AC, supplying an economy three-times larger than today would require less energy demand if the energy mix were to be diversified.

In the AC, gas meets a growing share of energy demand, supported by the implementation of the government’s gas masterplan.

 

Nigeria key energy indicators


	Coal	Oil	Gas	Hydro	Solar PV	Other low-carbon	Bioenergy   	GDP (right axis)	GDP (right axis)
2010	0.02	20.65	8.22	0.55	0.00	0.00	97.66	918.78	
2018	0.06	26.31	14.92	0.48	0.00	0.00	114.02	1168.52	
2030	5.5981	32.1045	16.2287	1.251	0.251375	0.021325	125.196	1636.18	
2040	9.28293	38.2883	24.7379	1.89931	0.426847	0.106713	137.347	2419.55	
2010	0.023417	20.6514	8.2215	0.54807	0	0.000513	97.6581		918.782
2018	0.0552847	26.3073	14.9176	0.478938	0.00146958	0.00040772	114.022		1168.52
2030	5.77903	43.0125	20.388	1.47261	1.10935	0.03651	38.057		2257.85
2040	9.04063	53.114	35.3835	2.57115	2.41543	0.24119	43.5651		3677.8
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	Coal	Oil	Back-up generators	Gas	Nuclear	Hydro	Wind	Solar PV	Bioenergy	Other renewables	Coal	Oil	Back-up generators	Gas	Nuclear	Hydro	Wind	Solar PV	Bioenergy	Other renewables
2010	0	0	8.468654049	19.747	0	6.374	0	0	0	0										
2011	0	0	10.31471263	21.151	0	5.883	0	0	0	0										
2012	0	0.021	11.82220339	23.047	0	5.659	0	0.021	0	0										
2013	0	0.022	11.74126735	23.557	0	5.326	0	0.022	0	0										
2014	0	0.022	12.9504323	26.885	0	5.346	0	0.022	0	0										
2015	0	0.024	14.0487941	26.697	0	5.718	0	0.024	0	0										
2016	0	0.026	14.92490662	26.193	0	5.586	0	0.026	0	0										
2017	0	0.026	15.97750546	26.67	0	5.527	0	0.026	0	0										
2018	0	1.02888	18.06504653	27.1155	0	5.57004	0.00628918	0.0235159	0.0356456	0										
2019	0.354281	1.10886	18.48851266	28.6395	0	5.6408	0.00598167	0.0425445	0.031685	0										
2020	0.629729	1.43887	18.78024172	28.5505	0	6.96179	0.00583486	0.176601	0.028744	0										
2021	2.46108	1.87119	18.99546395	26.8604	0	8.1221	0.00585161	0.435592	0.0271852	0										
2022	3.8489	2.5689	19.2089277	26.495	0	8.27516	0.00585365	0.717953	0.0264099	0										
2023	5.05536	3.50778	19.4284562	26.1763	0	8.45813	0.00590681	1.08287	0.0258547	0										
2024	6.14297	4.14614	19.64648885	26.5775	0	8.67336	0.00599646	1.35307	0.0252365	0										
2025	8.71635	4.36889	19.84040662	25.221	0	9.70278	0.0061324	1.63755	0.121653	0										
2026	10.0137	4.82915	20.08942425	25.4078	0	10.718	0.00628036	1.88858	0.219735	0										
2027	11.352	5.31374	20.3036803	25.8263	0	11.7114	0.00641902	2.14289	0.323789	0										
2028	12.8276	5.76609	20.47548945	26.4565	0	12.6828	0.0417611	2.39743	0.437291	0										
2029	14.3865	6.26825	20.58634642	27.3034	0	13.63	0.0822718	2.6499	0.564023	0										
2030	16.334	6.92105	20.6027745	27.9145	0	14.5492	0.128354	2.89864	0.706787	0										
2031	17.4893	7.55435	20.40248787	29.2849	0	15.4268	0.180459	3.14246	0.868198	0										
2032	18.7292	8.32243	20.09957004	30.8212	0	16.2588	0.238909	3.37771	1.05084	0										
2033	19.8432	8.89131	19.64987502	32.9693	0	17.0487	0.304245	3.60397	1.25737	0										
2034	21.1364	9.46996	19.05910225	35.3151	0	17.7993	0.377114	3.82102	1.49063	0										
2035	22.2808	9.96197	18.3123837	38.3287	0	18.5137	0.45828	4.02884	1.75366	0										
2036	23.3968	9.18915	17.36473309	42.9418	0	19.1983	0.548615	4.22752	2.04978	0										
2037	24.6259	9.71668	16.22072887	46.618	0	19.9122	0.630873	4.42299	2.32311	0										
2038	26.0371	10.2979	14.84016732	50.5175	0	20.6487	0.705607	4.61009	2.5749	-1.42E-14										
2039	27.5975	10.9717	13.2042742	54.7413	0	21.3709	0.773507	4.78906	2.80688	0										
2040	29.4595	11.6735	11.25008279	58.851	0	22.089	0.835269	4.96022	3.02059	-2.13E-14										
2010											0	0	8.468654049	19.747	0	6.374	0	0	0	0
2011											0	0	10.31471263	21.151	0	5.883	0	0	0	0
2012											0	0.021	11.82220339	23.047	0	5.659	0	0.021	0	0
2013											0	0.022	11.74126735	23.557	0	5.326	0	0.022	0	0
2014											0	0.022	12.9504323	26.885	0	5.346	0	0.022	0	0
2015											0	0.024	14.0487941	26.697	0	5.718	0	0.024	0	0
2016											0	0.026	14.92490662	26.193	0	5.586	0	0.026	0	0
2017											0	0.026	15.97750546	26.67	0	5.527	0	0.026	0	0
2018											0	1.02888	18.06504653	27.1155	0	5.57004	0.00628918	0.0235159	0.0356456	0
2019											0.349302	1.17248	18.40782192	31.8224	0	5.6424	0.00598335	0.0543863	0.031685	0
2020											0.622078	1.5883	18.60948371	34.3543	0	7.02692	0.00583846	0.308801	0.028744	0
2021											2.49728	2.33399	18.72512799	36.0265	0	8.28643	0.0058612	0.984249	0.0271852	0
2022											3.89936	3.42417	18.82786165	38.7533	0	8.44888	0.00587014	2.03737	0.0264099	0
2023											5.06309	4.87819	18.92373905	41.2087	0	8.6438	0.00593224	3.81885	0.0258547	0
2024											6.19684	6.13502	19.0034097	44.6272	0	8.87921	0.00603212	5.12968	0.0252365	0
2025											9.10095	7.08453	19.0428669	45.11	0	10.333	0.00618131	6.50771	0.141023	0
2026											10.5989	8.27923	19.11523963	48.0666	0	11.7674	0.00634104	7.75479	0.2588	0
2027											12.2104	9.63294	19.1308815	51.3779	0	13.1681	0.00649535	9.01895	0.383707	0
2028											14.0006	11.0414	19.07922337	55.078	0	14.5311	0.0488977	10.2847	0.519924	0
2029											15.9465	12.5829	18.9391965	59.1299	0	15.852	0.0975089	11.5471	0.671993	0
2030											18.1637	14.0674	18.67600533	62.2694	0	17.1264	0.152807	12.789	0.843286	0
2031											19.4788	15.2571	18.1764529	65.7096	0	18.356	0.215545	14.0254	1.03763	0
2032											20.8984	16.6817	17.54110093	69.3737	0	19.5501	0.286409	15.2678	1.25903	0
2033											22.0193	17.6454	16.72638007	73.9863	0	20.7259	0.36644	16.5275	1.51195	0
2034											23.5415	18.6129	15.7320223	78.5887	0	21.8994	0.456927	17.8226	1.80143	0
2035											24.6934	19.2316	14.53850241	84.4938	0	23.0874	0.559463	19.1784	2.13333	0
2036											25.9726	18.5297	13.10205305	91.9883	0	24.3126	0.675954	20.6125	2.51452	0
2037											27.0726	19.0244	11.41729506	98.5706	0	25.6019	0.809333	22.1926	2.95374	0
2038											28.1359	19.4349	9.443382123	105.258	0	26.9651	0.962211	23.9275	3.45988	0
2039											29.2933	19.8341	7.154073204	112.056	0	28.3864	1.138	25.8678	4.04458	0
2040											30.5351	20.1837	4.500033116	118.581	0	29.9024	1.34086	28.0686	4.72175	0
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Today, 80% of power generation comes from gas; most of the remainder comes from oil, with Nigeria the largest user of oil-fired back-up generators on the continent.

Natural gas remains the main source of power in the AC, although there is a shift towards solar PV as the country starts to exploit its large solar potential.

Nigeria electricity access solutions by type in the Africa Case

Provided that reliability and supply improve, the grid could become the optimal solution to provide almost 60% of people with access to electricity in each scenario.

In the AC, Nigeria achieves universal access by stepping up efforts to provide off-grid solutions to those populations that live far from a grid.


 

Nigeria is a major industrial producer and large chemical exporter. In the AC, it triples chemicals production by 2040 with new gas-based methanol and ammonia plants.

Nigeria has the second-largest vehicle stock in sub-Saharan Africa: the number of vehicles could grow from 14 to 37 million in the AC by 2040 with only two-times more oil consumption if more stringent fuel economy standards were introduced.

	Charcoal	Other solid biomass	Other polluting fuels	Improved cookstoves	LPG	Electricity, gas, biogas and biofuels
2018	11.19	131.14	35.48	0.00	10.26698619	9
Stated Policies 2030	13.81	133.25	43.21	13.94	19.60331164	39
Africa Case 2030	0.00	0.00	0.00	63.87	69.3453	130
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In the STEPS, there is progress on access to clean cooking services but almost three-quarters of the population still lack access in 2030.

In the AC, universal access is achieved through greater household access to gas networks and LPG in the main cities, and to improved cookstoves in rural areas.

Nigeria fossil fuel demand and production
	Demand in the Stated Policies Scenario	Demand in the Africa Case	Production in the Stated Policies Scenario	Production in the Africa Case
2010	10.0807093	10.0807093	32.5405	32.5405
2011	15.07174184	15.07174184	38.3409	38.3409
2012	14.64198478	14.64198478	41.2009	41.2009
2013	14.42285453	14.42285453	37.1659	37.1659
2014	16.43892812	16.43892812	42.4201	42.4201
2015	16.73489766	16.73489766	43.6877	43.6877
2016	16.85231284	16.85231284	40.3	40.3
2017	16.98965449	16.98965449	45.1	45.1
2018	18.25558971	18.25558971	43.925	43.925
2019				
2020				
2021				
2022				
2023				
2024				
2025	19.02842115	20.66966073	40.5163	49.784
2026				
2027				
2028				
2029				
2030	19.84506734	24.93111075	44.9064	56.2408
2031				
2032				
2033				
2034				
2035	23.72516454	32.52428834	56.1613	71.2292
2036				
2037				
2038				
2039				
2040	30.25032498	43.26817494	65.4459	83.5811

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	Demand in the Stated Policies Scenario	Demand in the Africa Case	Production in the Stated Policies Scenario	Production in the Africa Case
2010	0.0334529	0.0334529	0.0335	0.0335
2011	0.02817	0.02817	0.0282	0.0282
2012	0.042255677	0.042255677	0.0423	0.0423
2013	0.0387343	0.0387343	0.0387	0.0387
2014	0.0404943	0.0404943	0.0405	0.0405
2015	0.041375772	0.041375772	0.0414	0.0414
2016	0.040494249	0.040494249	0.0405	0.0405
2017	0.040821393	0.040821393	0.0408	0.0408
2018	0.081196421	0.081196421	0.0405	0.0405
2019				
2020				
2021				
2022				
2023				
2024				
2025	4.614123275	4.460744235	2.742	2.6413
2026				
2027				
2028				
2029				
2030	7.999344619	8.257488865	5.1307	5.2431
2031				
2032				
2033				
2034				
2035	10.39015438	10.76816437	7.1076	7.3054
2036				
2037				
2038				
2039				
2040	13.26332351	12.91622887	8.9577	8.6653

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	Demand in the Stated Policies Scenario	Demand in the Africa Case	Production in the Stated Policies Scenario	Production in the Africa Case
2010	0.291940845	0.291940845	2.535	2.5349
2011	0.270443302	0.270443302	2.4899	2.4899
2012	0.281950475	0.281950475	2.4822	2.4822
2013	0.407416944	0.407416944	2.2928	2.2928
2014	0.430306165	0.430306165	2.3302	2.3302
2015	0.373124636	0.373124636	2.2579	2.2579
2016	0.415065048	0.415065048	1.9359	1.9359
2017	0.430884923	0.430884923	1.9951	1.9951
2018	0.451541798	0.451541798	2.0608	2.0608
2019				
2020				
2021				
2022				
2023				
2024				
2025	0.554156458	0.661248625	2.0638	2.1729
2026				
2027				
2028				
2029				
2030	0.627536973	0.840832539	2.1407	2.3295
2031				
2032				
2033				
2034				
2035	0.713067298	0.984618285	2.2296	2.4827
2036				
2037				
2038				
2039				
2040	0.818884454	1.109554704	2.3007	2.6052
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Delayed reforms and growing competition in international oil markets means that it takes time for oil production to revive.

In both scenarios, gas demand grows strongly in the industry and power sectors, leading to action to increase production and reduce gas flaring.

	Production: oil	Production: gas	Power: fossil fuels	Power: renewables	Power: networks	Power: other	Access to electricity	Access to clean cooking
Stated Policies	259.63	82.0039	8.074605368	14.68637996	55.13875943	0	21.05738217	3.532313
Africa Case	281.128	108.6375	15.26621449	38.77197546	102.7242216	0	56.46652532	12.777405
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Cumulative energy supply investment of $445 billion is needed in the STEPS, almost 80% of which goes to upstream oil and gas.

The AC requires a significant ramp up in power sector investment. Spending on electricity networks and renewables increases by 85% and 165% respectively, compared to STEPS.

Nigeria policy opportunities


Oil sector reforms would help to revive oil production while successful implementation of the gas masterplan would foster gas-to-power, industrial development and expansion of the gas network to industrial hubs.

Improved power sector management and governance would help to reduce outages and transmission losses. Failure to do so would impede industrial growth and would mean continued high levels of use of polluting back-up generation.

Reducing bioenergy use across all sectors would bring a number of benefits, not least because its use is strongly linked to deforestation and air pollution.