Africa Energy Outlook 2019

Africa’s energy future matters for the world

Africa Energy Outlook 2019 is the IEA’s most comprehensive and detailed work to date on energy across the African continent, with a particular emphasis on sub-Saharan Africa. It includes detailed energy profiles of 11 countries that represent three-quarters of the region’s gross domestic product and energy demand, including Nigeria, South Africa, Ethiopia, Kenya and Ghana.

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Ethiopia key indicators and policy initiatives


  Stated Policies Africa Case CAAGR 2018-40
  2000 2018 2030 2040 2030 2040 STEPS AC
 GDP ($2018 billion, PPP)  47  220  493  870  610  1445 6.5% 8.9%
 Population (million)  67  108  143  173  143  173 2.2% 2.2%
• with electricity access 5% 45% 100% 100% 100% 100% 3.7% 3.7%
• with access to clean cooking 1% 7% 34% 56% 100% 100% 9.7% 12.6%
 CO2 emissions (Mt CO2)  3  14  29  46  32  52 5.5% 6.2%

Note: STEPS = Stated Policies Scenario and AC = Africa Case
Policy Key targets and measures
Performance targets
  • Increase generating capacity by 25 000 MW by 2030: 22 000 MW of hydro; 1 000 MW of geothermal; and 2 000 MW of wind by 2030.
  • National Electrification Program (2017): 100% electrification in 2025, with 35% off-grid and 65% grid, while extending the grid to reach 96% grid connections by 2030.
Industrial development targets
  • Achieve an annual average real GDP growth rate of 11% within a stable macroeconomic environment and become a lower middle-income country by 2025.
  • Focus on ensuring rapid, sustainable growth by enhancing the productivity of the agriculture and manufacturing sectors, and stimulating competition in the economy.

Ethiopia could supply a much larger economy than today in the AC, using only twice the energy, were it to diversify its energy mix and implement efficiency standards.

In the AC, this diversification comes about as a result of a substantial expansion of geothermal energy along with increased use of oil within industry and for cooking.

 

Ethiopia key energy indicators


	Coal	Oil	Gas	Hydro	Solar PV	Other low-carbon	Bioenergy   	GDP (right axis)	
2010	0.030811	1.89252	0	0.42399	0.00069	0.015489	31.0009	105.738	
2018	0.452619	3.96202	0.00072683	1.25229	0.0308046	0.09833957	38.6619	219.545	
2030	1.70444	8.03909	0.450559	3.12737	0.896518	3.967523	42.6349	492.5	
2040	4.86717	11.996	0.890245	3.62196	1.55274	9.233085	44.5435	869.609	
2010	0.030811	1.89252	0	0.42399	0.00069	0.015489	31.0009		105.738
2018	0.452619	3.96202	0.00072683	1.25229	0.0308046	0.09833957	38.6619		219.545
2030	0.959528	8.842	1.34717	4.02143	1.64542	5.502452	18.0629		610.189
2040	2.89921	12.6164	4.45992	5.11072	3.53732	19.13713	20.6847		1444.54
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	Coal	Oil	Back-up generators	Gas	Hydro	Wind	Solar PV	Bioenergy	Other renewables	Coal	Oil	Back-up generators	Gas	Hydro	Wind	Solar PV	Bioenergy	Other renewables
2010	0	0.031	0.50891743	0	4.931	0	0.008	0	0.018									
2011	0	0.037	0.583453909	0	6.262	0.029	0.009	0	0.008									
2012	0	0.012	0.699778818	0	7.388	0.192	0.017	0	0									
2013	0	0.008	0.807345618	0	8.338	0.356	0.038	0	0									
2014	0	0.003	0.949557698	0	9.013	0.499	0.054	0	0									
2015	0	0.004	1.178183229	0	9.674	0.759	0.095	0	0									
2016	0	0	1.138773278	0	11.753	0.782	0.11	0	0									
2017	0	0	1.255465294	0	12.957	0.862	0.118	0	0									
2018	0	0	1.411766238	0	14.564	0.670896	0.519546	0	0.0463434									
2019	0	0.0954438	1.53555114	0	15.2379	0.70974	0.727652	1.65465	0.0478283									
2020	0	0.429184	1.677738119	0.663202	15.4317	0.741085	0.892551	1.54894	0.0463712									
2021	0	0.606199	1.833295347	0.719218	19.0007	1.01427	0.88527	1.49998	0.0462661									
2022	0	0.455314	1.993263904	0.479388	22.6532	1.70654	1.12509	1.44472	0.463531									
2023	0	0.417251	2.151441263	0.357493	26.4412	2.16128	1.79328	1.47871	0.889994									
2024	0	0.477444	2.307693398	0.342752	30.0454	2.5714	2.44197	1.53627	1.31139									
2025	0	0.40056	2.42853383	0.334693	33.7243	2.93866	3.21225	1.62671	1.7577									
2026	0	0.65944	2.577410298	0.817359	34.4449	3.26581	4.14274	1.6975	2.20749									
2027	0	0.882093	2.715646512	1.50939	34.8854	3.55626	5.30065	1.77459	2.66931									
2028	0	1.17003	2.835861764	2.21116	35.3388	3.81336	6.73158	1.85238	3.15096									
2029	0	1.34023	2.878301068	2.48324	35.8364	4.03998	8.46399	1.92818	3.65654									
2030	0	1.32992	2.867609372	2.38973	36.3712	4.23905	10.5558	1.99946	4.18635									
2031	0	1.27107	2.799787909	2.24784	36.8957	4.42608	12.5717	2.06546	4.72944									
2032	0	1.20392	2.710875467	2.17601	37.3953	4.60206	14.2914	2.12561	5.2845									
2033	0	1.14558	2.603764143	2.1629	37.8733	4.76844	15.6091	2.18203	5.85182									
2034	0	1.11173	2.476776663	2.22457	38.3323	4.92636	16.5044	2.23698	6.43188									
2035	0	1.11829	2.32924462	2.36459	38.7745	5.07687	17.0467	2.29047	7.02524									
2036	0	1.14833	2.157994559	2.57437	39.2042	5.22087	17.35	2.34304	7.63237									
2037	0	1.1827	1.964703121	2.89297	39.6419	5.35918	17.5355	2.39131	8.24888									
2038	0	1.20178	1.747498916	3.31389	40.0967	5.4925	17.7201	2.43557	8.87404									
2039	0	1.2041	1.505403138	3.84441	40.6152	5.62145	17.9014	2.47938	9.50754									
2040	0	1.12457	1.237101434	4.24447	42.1233	5.74656	18.0781	2.52355	10.1492									
2010										0	0.031	0.50891743	0	4.931	0	0.008	0	0.018
2011										0	0.037	0.583453909	0	6.262	0.029	0.009	0	0.008
2012										0	0.012	0.699778818	0	7.388	0.192	0.017	0	0
2013										0	0.008	0.807345618	0	8.338	0.356	0.038	0	0
2014										0	0.003	0.949557698	0	9.013	0.499	0.054	0	0
2015										0	0.004	1.178183229	0	9.674	0.759	0.095	0	0
2016										0	0	1.138773278	0	11.753	0.782	0.11	0	0
2017										0	0	1.255465294	0	12.957	0.862	0.118	0	0
2018										0	0	1.411766238	0	14.564	0.670896	0.519546	0	0.0463434
2019										0	0.272144	1.526859292	0	15.2948	0.709985	0.73675	1.66126	0.0478283
2020										0	0.64518	1.657942986	0.928463	15.5292	1.04849	1.93571	1.56837	0.0463712
2021										0	0.120787	1.799419597	0.124126	19.8319	1.71871	3.11818	1.55275	0.0462661
2022										0	0.0515547	1.941890843	0.0115882	24.7677	2.75567	4.34461	1.5361	0.551415
2023										0	0.0571072	2.078778864	0	30.4109	3.87438	5.64952	1.58403	1.10585
2024										0	0.0771588	2.209415709	0	35.7498	5.06971	7.08164	1.63952	1.65421
2025										0	0.100303	2.301416483	0	41.1854	6.224	8.68415	1.72851	2.23422
2026										0	0.127768	2.414511327	0	42.1797	7.28319	10.4169	1.79807	2.81896
2027										0	0.183625	2.510986581	0.103197	43.2125	8.2061	12.3758	1.87465	3.41927
2028										0	0.451561	2.58325998	1.26144	44.3184	8.96845	14.5761	1.95247	4.04521
2029										0	0.606846	2.577082031	2.16788	45.5068	9.56396	17.0029	2.02872	4.70212
2030										0	0.764734	2.516312526	3.07905	46.7691	10.0035	19.3759	2.10071	5.39043
2031										0	0.80988	2.398935347	3.26035	48.0462	10.3101	21.7121	2.16807	6.14799
2032										0	0.836808	2.257140284	3.51543	49.3195	10.6115	23.9976	2.23004	6.98034
2033										0	0.843285	2.093145792	3.80778	50.5933	10.9087	26.2524	2.28864	7.89564
2034										0	0.842575	1.90521049	4.19644	51.8709	11.2026	28.4757	2.34629	8.90293
2035										0	0.818548	1.692404421	4.66646	53.1549	11.4936	30.6666	2.40305	10.1097
2036										0	0.799349	1.452024618	5.33435	54.4496	11.7824	32.8296	2.45894	11.5572
2037										0	0.749741	1.184839554	6.08224	55.7773	12.0693	34.9785	2.51054	13.2969
2038										0	0.665664	0.889009473	6.9223	57.1168	12.3547	37.0971	2.5582	15.387
2039										0	0.557812	0.563278661	7.92029	58.3276	12.6388	39.1851	2.60615	17.8981
2040										0	0.387338	0.206183572	8.59764	59.4375	12.9207	41.1855	2.65529	20.9152
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Ethiopia is currently heavily reliant on hydropower; plans to increase capacity to 13.5 GW by 2040 would make Ethiopia the second-largest hydro producer in Africa.

Providing electricity access to all and electrifying productive uses will lead to a fivefold increase in generation in the STEPS, and an even bigger increase in the AC; solar PV and geothermal account for almost 45% of the power mix by 2040 in the AC.

Ethiopia electricity access solutions by type in the Africa Case

Ethiopia currently has an electricity access rate of 45%, 11% of its population already have access through decentralised solutions. Strong government commitment to reach full access before 2030 in the STEPS.

In both scenarios, around 80% of new connections are cost effectively delivered by grid densification and extension as a large part of the population lives close to the grid.


 

Increased affluence in the STEPS results in a more than fourfold increase of the private vehicle stock with the number of cars reaching 700 000 by 2040. This results in a 300% increase in related oil consumption.

To meet the needs of its growing population, Ethiopia remains a large producer of cement causing energy demand to increase significantly in both scenarios.

	Charcoal 	Other solid biomass	Coal and kerosene	Improved cookstoves	LPG	Electricity, gas, biogas and biofuels
2018	8.15998	90.76435	1.0118655	0	0.508123	7.3623645
Stated Policies 2030	7.93983	85.38468	0.9937956	17.183139	5.07901	26.3168181
Africa Case 2030	0	0	0	73.20624	13.3272	56.3156427
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In the STEPS, a push on improved and advanced biomass cookstoves alongside more access through LPG and electricity increases the population with access by 40 million by 2030, with 60% of this increase taking place in rural areas.

In the AC, increased efforts using the same solutions bring access to clean cooking by 2030 to the remaining 95 million people that rely on the traditional use of biomass.

Ethiopia fossil fuel demand and production
	Demand in the Stated Policies Scenario	Demand in the Africa Case	Production in the Stated Policies Scenario	Production in the Africa Case
2010	0	0	0	0
2011	0	0	0	0
2012	0	0	0	0
2013	0	0	0	0
2014	0	0	0	0
2015	0	0	0	0
2016	0	0	0	0
2017	0	0	0	0
2018	0.000889467	0.000889467	0	0
2019				
2020				
2021				
2022				
2023				
2024				
2025	0.0967134	0.42952293	1.6	2.5
2026				
2027				
2028				
2029				
2030	0.55095931	1.64736451	3.1413	3
2031				
2032				
2033				
2034				
2035	0.57301077	2.91229791	3	4
2036				
2037				
2038				
2039				
2040	1.08862327	5.45374705	4.0326	5.0154
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	Demand in the Stated Policies Scenario	Demand in the Africa Case	Production in the Stated Policies Scenario
2010	0.0440157	0.0440157	0.0317
2011	0.14965416	0.14965416	0.0185
2012	0.19719075	0.19719075	0
2013	0.25617275	0.25617275	0
2014	0.35652776	0.35652776	0
2015	0.36180932	0.36180932	0
2016	0.463046913	0.463046913	0
2017	0.510495535	0.510495535	0
2018	0.64659842	0.64659842	0
2019			
2020			
2021			
2022			
2023			
2024			
2025	1.431124493	0.870417686	0
2026			
2027			
2028			
2029			
2030	2.434915333	1.370755241	0
2031			
2032			
2033			
2034			
2035	4.259343298	2.40866328	0
2036			
2037			
2038			
2039			
2040	6.953096403	4.14172655	0
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	Demand in the Stated Policies Scenario	Demand in the Africa Case	Production in the Stated Policies Scenario	Production in the Africa Case
2010	0.037227635	0.037227635	0	0
2011	0.040854858	0.040854858	0	0
2012	0.042774662	0.042774662	0	0
2013	0.049200254	0.049200254	0	0
2014	0.059800315	0.059800315	0	0
2015	0.058241066	0.058241066	0	0
2016	0.065584446	0.065584446	0	0
2017	0.07375645	0.07375645	0	0
2018	0.082121119	0.082121119	0	0
2019				
2020				
2021				
2022				
2023				
2024				
2025	0.124501444	0.134195171	0.0004	0.0005
2026				
2027				
2028				
2029				
2030	0.162179654	0.181645224	0.0032	0.0034
2031				
2032				
2033				
2034				
2035	0.200211963	0.220273701	0.0058	0.006
2036				
2037				
2038				
2039				
2040	0.243093416	0.257742532	0.0061	0.0064
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Growing fossil fuel consumption is met almost entirely by imports in both scenarios.

A high degree of dependency on imported fuels in both scenarios and a range of infrastructure development challenges underline the case for the development of hydropower and other renewables. 

	Production: oil	Production: gas	Power: fossil fuels	Power: renewables	Power: networks	Access to electricity	Access to clean cooking
Stated Policies	0.3693	5.9467	0.57577495	23.91719183	31.58506774	40.10161382	2.035089
Africa Case	0.3691	9.8094	1.648994891	49.33202909	61.96508653	61.11041821	4.3359006
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Cumulative energy investment of $100 billion is needed in the STEPS, with electricity access and networks taking the majority.

The AC needs around 80% more capital, including a doubling of investments in renewables and electricity networks compared with the STEPS.

Ethiopia policy opportunities


Ethiopia will remain heavily dependent on fossil fuel imports. In both scenarios, imports of oil and coal increase; a significant increase in gas consumption (and imports) would help the country to make the most of its industrial potential.

The need for energy imports could be reduced by a determined push to develop the country’s formidable hydro resources and accelerate electrification, as well as by development of its more limited natural gas reserves.

Continuing progress on access means that fully achieving SDG 7 is well within Ethiopia’s reach. Most of the additional connections to 2025 can be made through extending the current grid.